Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The Northeast Heatwave

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:08 AM GMT on July 07, 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

The most significant weather event in the US on July 6, 2010 didn't show up on any radar. The geostationary satellites didn't see it in their constant watch over the Earth's atmosphere. Instead, the tale of this event was told by the thermometers, because the heatwave in the Northeast was the most significant event for July 6, and it will likely be the most important weather story for July 7.

The heat wave covers Pennsylvania to Maine, but Tuesday's worst was centered over New York City. All six of the stations used by the New York NWS office for climate reports (Central Park, La Guardia, JFK, Islip, Bridgeport, and Newark) set or tied the daily high temperature record. Newark and Central Park both reached 103 degrees F.

How unusual is this heat wave?
Figures 1 and 2 show how warm the highs and lows are compared to 30 year averages. Unless you were at the Great Lakes, the Midwest and Northeast have highs well above normal, with 10-15+ degree F differences over the coastal cities of the Northeast. Using my gridded temperature data, the low for New York City was 6 degrees F above normal, which should happen 30% of the time (1.1 standard deviations away from normal). The high was roughly 20 degrees above normal, which should happen only 0.29% of the time (3.04 standard deviations away from normal). This is an unusually strong heat wave.

Why it's hot
Basically, it's because there is "the Bull of a high pressure ridge [over the NE US]" to quote the Mount Holly NWS office forecast discussion. The large ridge of high pressure is forcing air to slowly descend across the Northeast, preventing clouds from forming. Without no clouds and plenty of daylight, the Sun heats the ground which then heats the air.

When will it cool down?
That's an excellent question. A trough of low pressure off the coast will bring onshore winds to the Tri-State area and MA by Thursday, so they should cool down a bit. The southern part of the heat wave, DC and Philadelphia, will have to wait for a cold front to arrive from the Great Lakes sometime Saturday to get relief.

Population affected
As Figure 3 shows, heat advisories covered most of the urban areas of the northeastern US. By my calculations, over 32 million people were under a heat advisory. Different offices have different guidelines for heat advisories. The NWS office responsible for New York issues a heat advisory if the heat index will be above 95 deg. F for two or more days or if the index will be above 100 deg. F for any length of time.

Fig.1 Plot of the difference between maximum temperature (the high for the day) and average maximum temperature in degrees F for July 6.

Fig.2 Plot of the difference between minimum temperature (the low for the day) and average minimum temperature in degrees F for July 6.

Fig.3 Plot of the active heat advisories across the northeastern US for July 6.

Heatwave impacts
The predominant impact from heat waves is increased mortality. CDC estimates that over 8,000 people died during heat waves from 1979 to 2003. That's more than all of the deaths due to lightning, flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes. The elderly, sick, poor, and very young face the worst of the effects of the heat. Wikipedia has an interesting article describing the Chicago Heat Wave of 1995, a modern heat wave with a large number of fatalities due to the heat.

Heatwave coping strategies
The Centers for Disease Control have some tips for dealing with the heat. In summary, drink plenty of water, spend time in air-conditioned buildings, and wear light-colored clothing.

Is this heat wave due to global warming?
Ah, the $64,000 question. In the absence of detailed analysis, it's hard to specify the exact cause for this heat wave, from a meteorological or climatological view point. However, events like this are consistent with research showing that heat waves are more likely with
global warming. I like the metaphor of loaded dice, global warming is not specifically responsible for any heat wave, but it will make them happen more often.

Tropics
My thinking on Invest 96L is unchanged from this blog entry. In summary, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon to talk about the tropics.

Categories: Heat

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 551 - 601

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 — Blog Index

551. Levi32 5:52 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Good morning all. Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 7th, with Video Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

552. Drakoen 5:53 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Classification of a storm really boils down to the forecaster on duty and whether or not the forecaster feels an invest has become a tropical cyclone. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

554. CybrTeddy 5:54 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: that was my point Teddy, just because 95L had a pressure of 1009mb and winds of 30mph does not mean it meets the criteria for classification; that is why I responded with what I did 95L featured a closed LLC regardless of what Dr. Carver said, it was obvious on radar the strong amount of turning and had substantial amount of vort to be considered a closed LLC. They even ran model data on a TD to the models the day 95L hit land, yet the NHC never gave a renumber. If 95L never had a closed LLC, the NHC would never have bumped up the odds so rapidly. That's all I have to say on the subject, personally I'm more concerned about 96L than the NHC not naming a dead invest. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20233

555. Dakster 5:54 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting txag91met: I have a Master's in meteorology...been studying tropical systems for a long time...the low was closed enough in my book to warrant classification. It is just my opinion...why do I have to agree with Dr. Carver, just because he has a PHD? I am assuming your are in the USA. (Some other countries this doesn't apply) You don't have to agree with anyone, regardless of the letters that follow their name. However, the official historical record is not up to you - Just like Dr. Carver, all of the forecasters at the NHC, Dr. Masters, Stormw, Levi, W456, etc... do not have to agree with you. Having said all that, if its looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932

556. homelesswanderer 5:55 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Beaumont, Tx Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

557. Daveg 5:55 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 426

558. LoneStarWeather 5:55 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting KarenRei: You can read the report here. The findings begin on page 10 and continue through page 16. They were not charged with 'failing to reveal true information'. The report finds in their favor on almost all charges; the closest thing to what you described that it holds against them is a failure to maintain a culture of openness -- not just for statutory requirements, but to maintain the reputation of the university and the science. They're faulted several times for being "unhelpful" to data requests from those they felt were just trying to waste their time or attack them, and for a lack of risk management planning in their handling of the controversy. These charges are not irrelevant, by any stretch. But the science itself was upheld. At the same time, it should send a message to them that as much as you are sure that these "amateur scientists" who keep pestering you with data requests are just trying to harass you and waste your time, you still have to treat their requests with the same respect you would treat legitimate scientific inquiry. The message being sent to them is an important one: it is not their place to determine whose inquiry is relevant or "legitimate". Science is about truth and if what you propose is the truth then all inquiries should be welcome and accepted. Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 391

561. Hurricanes101 5:56 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: 95L featured a closed LLC regardless of what Dr. Carver said, it was obvious on radar the strong amount of turning and had substantial amount of vort to be considered a closed LLC. They even ran model data on a TD to the models the day 95L hit land, yet the NHC never gave a renumber. atcf changed it back if you go look, no TD for any update now Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

562. BDAwx 5:56 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
so wait. these weren't attached to fronts? Chantal 2007 Wilma 2005 Alex 2004 Otto 2004 Erika 2003 Arthur 2002 Dolly 2002 Isidore 2002 Erin 2001 Felix 2001 or does the front rule only apply to developing systems? Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 509

563. CybrTeddy 5:57 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: atcf changed it back if you go look, no TD for any update now I can't, sites not working for me. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20233

564. Hurricanes101 5:58 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: I can't, sites not working for me. AL, 95, 2010070118, , BEST, 0, 306N, 829W, 20, 1009, LO, AL, 95, 2010070200, , BEST, 0, 304N, 833W, 20, 1009, LO, AL, 95, 2010070206, , BEST, 0, 302N, 836W, 20, 1009, LO, AL, 95, 2010070212, , BEST, 0, 298N, 840W, 20, 1015, LO, AL, 95, 2010070218, , BEST, 0, 292N, 845W, 20, 1015, LO, AL, 95, 2010070300, , BEST, 0, 288N, 851W, 20, 1013, LO, AL, 95, 2010070306, , BEST, 0, 282N, 863W, 20, 1013, LO, AL, 95, 2010070312, , BEST, 0, 278N, 870W, 20, 1013, LO, AL, 95, 2010070318, , BEST, 0, 276N, 876W, 25, 1013, LO, AL, 95, 2010070400, , BEST, 0, 275N, 884W, 25, 1011, LO, AL, 95, 2010070406, , BEST, 0, 273N, 895W, 25, 1011, LO, AL, 95, 2010070412, , BEST, 0, 272N, 900W, 20, 1011, LO, AL, 95, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 274N, 901W, 20, 1012, LO, AL, 95, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 277N, 905W, 25, 1011, LO, AL, 95, 2010070506, , BEST, 0, 281N, 908W, 25, 1010, LO, AL, 95, 2010070512, , BEST, 0, 284N, 909W, 30, 1009, LO, AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 911W, 30, 1008, LO, AL, 95, 2010070600, , BEST, 0, 290N, 915W, 30, 1008, LO, AL, 95, 2010070606, , BEST, 0, 296N, 922W, 30, 1008, LO, AL, 95, 2010070612, , BEST, 0, 303N, 924W, 20, 1009, LO, Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

565. winter123 5:58 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
96L is moving so fast it's gonna be inland by tomorrow morning. I don't see how it has a chance with how unorganized it is now. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

566. TropicalNonsense 5:58 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
my guess is 96L will still spin up into atleast a tropical storm before it is all said and done so caution should be used if anyone is talking about dismissing it. Granted, it does not look like much but it has a favorable setup and apparently the mid level circulation is still very intact and soon it will be moving into an incapsulated low shear enviroment with clearly noticeable warmer sst's despite the recent upwelling that occured from Alex. right now 96L's biggest problem that i see is its rather quick forward motion which may only give it a small window of opportunity if any to form and intensify. Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524

567. frecklespugsley 5:58 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Rising river forces Mexico-Texas bridge closing Whatever 96L ends up being, it will certainly make the flooding situation down there worse. Member Since: February 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 40

568. txag91met 5:58 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Negative. You don't have to agree with anyone ... but understand your book doesn't jive with the NHC's book in this case. No big deal, really. Or perhaps there is something I am missing about the consequences of classification versus not. That certainly could be the case, but I think this is more or less a debate about nothing. It is a debate about a meaningless storm, but it is still spinning in NE Texas. Quoting Dakster: I am assuming your are in the USA. (Some other countries this doesn't apply) You don't have to agree with anyone, regardless of the letters that follow their name. However, the official historical record is not up to you - Just like Dr. Carver, all of the forecasters at the NHC, Dr. Masters, Stormw, Levi, W456, etc... do not have to agree with you. Having said all that, if its looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck... Well at least I have my own opinion. 95L was about 30 - 35 mph with a 1009 mb "closed low"...albeit very weak. Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

569. Levi32 5:58 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
96L is pulling itself together in the area of greatest pressure falls, and this is where, if it can overcome the dry air to its west, it will really start to develop. This is nothing more than a westward shift of what happened with Alex 2 weeks ago down in the Caribbean. Because of that, 96L doesn't have the kind of time it needs to become something vicious before running into North America like Alex did. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

570. USSINS 5:59 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: ...I think this is more or less a debate about nothing. Not entirely. Not jumping in the 95L debate now, but what if five or 10 people had been killed in flooding from the 15 inches of rain that fell swest of Morgan City? Would have greater awareness been created and saved lives had it been classified as a TD? Maybe. Everyone shares some personal responsibility, first and foremost. But, I don't think it's the role of the NHC is to necessarily "classify" storms as much as it is to help save lives and protect property. Again, just my two cents. Have a great afternoon, all.

571. NRAamy 5:59 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
with the heat wave, are we anticipating any shower curtains cut up into speedos? Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

572. HurricaneSwirl 6:00 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Well this is what it says now: BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al952010.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201007061243 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010070212, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, AL952010 AL, 95, 2010070118, , BEST, 0, 306N, 829W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 95, 2010070200, , BEST, 0, 304N, 833W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 95, 2010070206, , BEST, 0, 302N, 836W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 95, 2010070212, , BEST, 0, 298N, 840W, 20, 1015, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 150, 15, 25, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, AL, 95, 2010070218, , BEST, 0, 292N, 845W, 20, 1015, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 150, 15, 25, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, AL, 95, 2010070300, , BEST, 0, 288N, 851W, 20, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 130, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 95, 2010070306, , BEST, 0, 282N, 863W, 20, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070312, , BEST, 0, 278N, 870W, 20, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 20, 25, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070318, , BEST, 0, 276N, 876W, 25, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 20, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070400, , BEST, 0, 275N, 884W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070406, , BEST, 0, 273N, 895W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070412, , BEST, 0, 272N, 900W, 20, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 274N, 901W, 20, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 70, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 277N, 905W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 60, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070506, , BEST, 0, 281N, 908W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 60, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070512, , BEST, 0, 284N, 909W, 30, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 70, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 911W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 70, 25, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070600, , BEST, 0, 290N, 915W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 80, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 95, 2010070606, , BEST, 0, 296N, 922W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 95, 2010070612, , BEST, 0, 303N, 924W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

573. 7544 6:01 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
97l coming soon Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

574. CybrTeddy 6:01 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
So what do you think are the odds for 96L Levi? Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20233

575. txag91met 6:01 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Levi32: 96L is pulling itself together in the area of greatest pressure falls, and this is where, if it can overcome the dry air to its west, it will really start to develop. This is nothing more than a westward shift of what happened with Alex 2 weeks ago down in the Caribbean. Because of that, 96L doesn't have the kind of time it needs to become something vicious before running into North America like Alex did. You mean pressure anomalies??? Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

577. HurricaneSwirl 6:01 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting BDAwx: so wait. these weren't attached to fronts? Chantal 2007 Wilma 2005 Alex 2004 Otto 2004 Erika 2003 Arthur 2002 Dolly 2002 Isidore 2002 Erin 2001 Felix 2001 or does the front rule only apply to developing systems? You like, just killed the blog. Either that or my computer lol Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

578. Daveg 6:02 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting winter123: 96L is moving so fast it's gonna be inland by tomorrow morning. I don't see how it has a chance with how unorganized it is now. Part of that is deceiving. It's not moving as fast as the flaring convection makes it look like it is. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 426

579. Levi32 6:02 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting txag91met: You mean pressure anomalies??? Yes, they represent the area where the greatest pressure falls are occurring relative to normal. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

580. Dakster 6:03 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting NRAamy: with the heat wave, are we anticipating any shower curtains cut up into speedos? Thanks NRAamy - That painted a wonderful picture in my mind... Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932

581. robert88 6:03 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
What a lull we are in now. The entire globe has barely any convection. The SAL is the strongest it has been all year with bright pinks showing up now. It's wild how quick things can change in the tropics. GFS shows the pattern not changing for quite awhile. The ECMWF looks to be a bust with 23 named storms right now. August and September are going to have to be real busy. If the TUTT doesn't pull out until late August/September the season could be average or slightly below. We shall see. Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 877

582. Portlight 6:03 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
If any of you has a talent for...and interest in...this sort of thing, please let us know...Thanks!! Link Member Since: January 7, 2009 Posts: 90 Comments: 403

583. HurricaneSwirl 6:04 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Levi32: 96L is pulling itself together in the area of greatest pressure falls, and this is where, if it can overcome the dry air to its west, it will really start to develop. This is nothing more than a westward shift of what happened with Alex 2 weeks ago down in the Caribbean. Because of that, 96L doesn't have the kind of time it needs to become something vicious before running into North America like Alex did. I still think this will get renumbered, but do you think it will have a shot at becoming the B storm, or do you think this is a depression max. I know it's kind of a specific question since the difference between a TD and a weak TS is so little. But what are your thoughts? Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

584. KarenRei 6:04 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting LoneStarWeather: The message being sent to them is an important one: it is not their place to determine whose inquiry is relevant or "legitimate". Science is about truth and if what you propose is the truth then all inquiries should be welcome and accepted. To be fair, it was not without good cause. They've been facing a huge storm of people with no credentials in and little familiarity with the science, motivated by blogs and pundits, to try to find fault with global warming. That's something that scientists in other fields don't face. These people usually do lousy analysis, not understanding the most rudimentary aspects of the field, and then publish their un-peer-reviewed "AHA!" all over the net. One of the "Climategate" scientists who was encouraging others to find ways to turn down requests once had his partner sued for fraud by a day trader who fancied himself a climate scientist. So basically they want to work with these people about as much as they want their teeth drilled. But that said, as you note, it's not their call. They don't get to pick and choose who they consider legitimate. These are the cards you're dealt. If you want to be a scientist in a controversial field, you need to have a thick skin and be willing to put up with this sort of stuff. Evolutionary biologists have been dealing with it for a century and a half. Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 934

585. BDAwx 6:04 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: You like, just killed the blog. Either that or my computer lol sorry!!! :) Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 509

586. sailingallover 6:05 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting 7544: hi all hmm nice blob around 23n 70 west could this become 97l and if so with the high just above it would it pushed it west also if it did form tia Thats the top part of the waves that came over us Saturday. The Low off the east coast sucked all the convection north over the weekend. Keeping an eye on it. Some chance of development but it is already re-curving and will head out to sea towards Bermuda. More subtropical than anything Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

587. HurricaneSwirl 6:05 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting robert88: What a lull we are in now. The entire globe has barely any convection. The SAL is the strongest it has been all year with bright pinks showing up now. It's wild how quick things can change in the tropics. GFS shows the pattern not changing for quite awhile. The ECMWF looks to be a bust with 23 named storms right now. August and September are going to have to be real busy. If the TUTT doesn't pull out until late August/September the season could be average or slightly below. We shall see. Ugh.. someone pull out "the chart" Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

588. will45 6:05 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Daveg: Part of that is deceiving. It's not moving as fast as the flaring convection makes it look like it is. 10 to 15 mph is a good clip Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

589. lakeEFX 6:05 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
That satellite picture of Dolly looks similar to 96L. Anything spinning in the Gulf this time of year should always be watched. It was kinda messy looking, too, but look what damage it did. Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 114

590. txag91met 6:06 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Yes, they represent the area where the greatest pressure falls are occurring relative to normal. Pressure falls is pressure decreasing...pressure anomalies means anomalies compared to normal. As for 96L---it will probably be a depression by tonight/tomorrow and move into Brownsville...more rain where they don't need it. Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

591. HurricaneSwirl 6:06 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: Ugh.. someone pull out "the chart" Nvm I found it: Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

592. Hurricanes101 6:07 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: Nvm I found it: The nerve you have to cloud up the blog with LOGIC lol Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

593. CybrTeddy 6:08 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
581. SAL remains below average, and is not a season killer. GFS shows the TUTT lifting well out very soon up above 30N. Everything's lining up. We've already had a near major hurricane and this season might not live up to the 24 named predictions NOAA came out with but it will certainly live up to CSU's 18. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20233

594. Levi32 6:09 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: I still think this will get renumbered, but do you think it will have a shot at becoming the B storm, or do you think this is a depression max. I know it's kind of a specific question since the difference between a TD and a weak TS is so little. But what are your thoughts? I think it has a shot at being classified if it can keep firing convection and ignore the dry air to the west. Whether it would be a TD or TS is iffy because we know that it did have gales in its NE quad while it was in the Caribbean, but the only buoy really near the system is only showing TD-force winds, but then again that's not under a convective band, so it's hard to say what its max winds would be. Either way it wouldn't be more than a weak tropical storm if it does develop before landfall. It has a chance right now but the important thing is that it doesn't have enough time to become a significant threat to life and property. Just a nasty weather-maker for the northern Mexico, south Texas, and Louisiana coastlines. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

595. Levi32 6:10 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting txag91met: Pressure falls is pressure decreasing...pressure anomalies means anomalies compared to normal. As for 96L---it will probably be a depression by tonight/tomorrow and move into Brownsville...more rain where they don't need it. And pressure anomalies of 6 millibars below normal indicate pressure falls in the area. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25445

596. CoffinWood 6:10 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Levi32: 96L is pulling itself together in the area of greatest pressure falls, and this is where, if it can overcome the dry air to its west, it will really start to develop. This is nothing more than a westward shift of what happened with Alex 2 weeks ago down in the Caribbean. Because of that, 96L doesn't have the kind of time it needs to become something vicious before running into North America like Alex did. Thanks Levi, I really appreciated today's video. Member Since: June 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 113

597. extreme236 6:11 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting USSINS: Not entirely. Not jumping in the 95L debate now, but what if five or 10 people had been killed in flooding from the 15 inches of rain that fell swest of Morgan City? Would have greater awareness been created and saved lives had it been classified as a TD? Maybe. Everyone shares some personal responsibility, first and foremost. But, I don't think it's the role of the NHC is to necessarily "classify" storms as much as it is to help save lives and protect property. Again, just my two cents. Have a great afternoon, all. There is no TD watch or warning system, so people should pay attention to local weather advisories for that stuff. If a cold front bring in severe weather came through here in Ohio I don't need any classified system to keep an eye on it. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

599. unf97 6:12 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: 581. SAL remains below average, and is not a season killer. GFS shows the TUTT lifting well out very soon up above 30N. Everything's lining up. Things should start to pick back up out in the Tropical East Atlantic later this month. Cape Verde season typically doesn't get cranked up until after July 15. The season I think will still be a very active one. Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

600. CybrTeddy 6:12 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting extreme236: There is no TD watch or warning system, so people should pay attention to local weather advisories for that stuff. If a cold front bring in severe weather came through here in Ohio I don't need any classified system to keep an eye on it. Sad thing is, people don't. Heck, people are still under the impression that a Category 1 Hurricane is nothing to worry about.. just look at what Katrina did to Miami before it went in the Gulf. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20233

601. NRAamy 6:13 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Comic Book Guy: Worst... Mental Picture... EVER hahahahahahaha! :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

Viewing: 551 - 601

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 — Blog Index

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters