Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Comic Book Guy: Worst... Mental Picture... EVER


hahahahahahaha!

:)

Quoting CoffinWood:


Thanks Levi, I really appreciated today's video.

It's my pleasure.

Statement as of 10:58 am CDT on July 7, 2010

... Another dousing of heavy rainfall across parts of Nebraska...

Aaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh! :)

Wow, I get back from the beach (rain clouds chased me off) and I see we are back to debating 95L, cutting up shower curtains for Speedos and 96L is sprinting across the GOM! Never a dull moment on the blog. Is 96L expected to eep up this speed?

Quoting unf97:


Things should start to pick back up out in the Tropical East Atlantic later this month. Cape Verde season typically doesn't get cranked up until after July 15. The season I think will still be a very active one.

The CPC forecasts a "moderate" chance for development across the Western Atlantic next week.

I see 96L has been up'd to 50%

I think that we're discounting the very real danger of what 96L really means. RAIN!

Not to mention that if Alex and this, are ACTS 1 & 2, I'm not sure I want to see what follows. Intermission may never come.

Quoting 7544:
ok after i posted i see accu weather does have a box around 23n 70 west as a wave to watch lol

could it become 97l next ?

It's looking very sub tropical storm like. Over the Weekend NHC had it yellow with a 20% chance at one point. Now that it is mixed up with the Low off the coast it will probably never develop as a tropical storm.

But looks like a good nor'easter in the making
and if it does go far enough south it could make sub tropical.

Small chance some energy and convection could get left behind as the Low moves off to the NE over the next couple days. That energy could get caught in the trades and move west and develop..but it's a long shot...

Quoting Levi32:


I think it has a shot at being classified if it can keep firing convection and ignore the dry air to the west. Whether it would be a TD or TS is iffy because we know that it did have gales in its NE quad while it was in the Caribbean, but the only buoy really near the system is only showing TD-force winds, but then again that's not under a convective band, so it's hard to say what its max winds would be. Either way it wouldn't be more than a weak tropical storm if it does develop before landfall. It has a chance right now but the important thing is that it doesn't have enough time to become a significant threat to life and property. Just a nasty weather-maker for the northern Mexico, south Texas, and Louisiana coastlines.

Alright, thanks!

Good Afternoon everyone!! boy the heat came back quickly here in NC but not so much of the humidity which is a plus in all of it..our local met said a low pressure moved off the coast today and this might be what some of the models and Dr. Masters were picking up as a chance of development..I wonder if something close to the conus could become the major player this season instead of the waves coming across africa..

That is one very strong high pressure system in the East, Satellite shows like no clouds from Maine to Florida.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


The nerve you have to cloud up the blog with LOGIC lol

Lol I should just be straight-up perma banned.

Quoting Levi32:


And pressure anomalies of 6 millibars below normal indicate pressure falls in the area.

Your picture indicates pressure anomalies... not pressure falls. You could have -5 mb pressure anomalies and the pressure is rising.

Quoting extreme236:


There is no TD watch or warning system, so people should pay attention to local weather advisories for that stuff. If a cold front bring in severe weather came through here in Ohio I don't need any classified system to keep an eye on it.

Read again. I think I mentioned "personal responsibility." Andy, Cyber's right, too - some fools could care less, even if it's a Cat 3. To some classification really means nothing. But, the point, the gist is that by creating a more acute awareness, sooner, perhaps more lives can be saved. That's all I'm saying.

Peace out.

Quoting txag91met:

Your picture indicates pressure anomalies... not pressure falls. You could have -5 mb pressure anomalies and the pressure is rising.

But it isn't because the anomalies have been intensifying, not slackening. If pressures were rising I would not have said what I said.

Question for Admin: are all charitable organizations responding to post weather related needs permitted to advertise openly on the blog or just portlight?

Quoting reedzone:
NON-TROPICAL low invest area, may get tagged if it continues to organize, very large, a large Ocean Storm for right now, it seems to be absorbing the wave to the southeast.

What direction is that wave travelling?

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
OKC061-071845-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0032.100707T1816Z-100707T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
116 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 113 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF LEQUIRE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
LEQUIRE...STIGLER AND WHITEFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3523 9527 3532 9510 3509 9503 3507 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 153DEG 12KT 3511 9508

$$

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That is one very strong high pressure system in the East, Satellite shows like no clouds from Maine to Florida.

Plenty of clouds in the area you describe? The only spot with barely any clouds is NC and SC.

Man I just did the math and I have to do approximately 500 sentences on two books and literary terms. Why can't we have summer math or summer science?? I have less than a month until school starts so I guess I'm out until 8PM TWO.

Quoting srada:
Good Afternoon everyone!! boy the heat came back quickly here in NC but not so much of the humidity which is a plus in all of it..our local met said a low pressure moved off the coast today and this might be what some of the models and Dr. Masters were picking up as a chance of development..I wonder if something close to the conus could become the major player this season instead of the waves coming across africa..

Well in a normal season the home brews are most revelant later on in the season. Usually around Sept and later. Having said that this season maybe different.

Dang... I have relatives all the way up the east coast, and I'm the coolest of all of them way down here in Florida. What a heatwave...

And, what a difference five months makes since Snowmageddon, Snowpocalypse, Sno Mas! and the like.

,

extreme236, I totally agree, living in the bayous of Louisiana, any rain can be a flooding event.

Welcome to La Nina.

Quoting AustinTXWeather:


What direction is that wave travelling?

The Non Tropical Low itself is drifting S-SW. There is a tropical wave near 23.0N 70.0W that appears to me that will get absorbed by the Non Tropical Low.

The Non -Tropical Low is forecast to drift S-SW and meander the next couple of days before a trough of Low Pressure forcast to move through the Ohio Valley to the NE US late this week picks up the Non Tropical entity and carries it out to sea.

Quoting BDAwx:
so wait. these weren't attached to fronts?
Chantal 2007

Wilma 2005

Alex 2004

Otto 2004

Erika 2003

Arthur 2002

Dolly 2002

Isidore 2002

Erin 2001

Felix 2001


or does the front rule only apply to developing systems?

Many early and late systems will get a spin and become a storm from the tail end of a stalled front, usually in the gulf. Normally it detaches itself from the front after forming as a system. Other storms may be a normal storm, make landfall and then attach itself to a passing front, but still with maybe tropical properties, like a spin, high winds, etc. and the front pushes it off the coast at high speeds, which in the right circumstances can cause it to reform. So, long story short, yes. Frontal systems can have a lot of play in making systems.

Quoting KarenRei:


You can read the report here. The findings begin on page 10 and continue through page 16. They were not charged with 'failing to reveal true information'. The report finds in their favor on almost all charges; the closest thing to what you described that it holds against them is a failure to maintain a culture of openness -- not just for statutory requirements, but to maintain the reputation of the university and the science. They're faulted several times for being "unhelpful" to data requests from those they felt were just trying to waste their time or attack them, and for a lack of risk management planning in their handling of the controversy. These charges are not irrelevant, by any stretch. But the science itself was upheld. At the same time, it should send a message to them that as much as you are sure that these "amateur scientists" who keep pestering you with data requests are just trying to harass you and waste your time, you still have to treat their requests with the same respect you would treat legitimate scientific inquiry.

This is actually my point exactly. Let's all be open with this. It's not like they're developing some super secret new product which is going to earn them bunches of money. It's not their place to determine if an inquiry is "ameteur" or illegitimate. Elitism or knowing what's best for the masses is often a dangerous course. The course of our climate is something that affects us all, and any secrecy and politically driven drivel should be thrust aside.

Quoting srada:
Good Afternoon everyone!! boy the heat came back quickly here in NC but not so much of the humidity which is a plus in all of it..our local met said a low pressure moved off the coast today and this might be what some of the models and Dr. Masters were picking up as a chance of development..I wonder if something close to the conus could become the major player this season instead of the waves coming across africa..

It's pretty dry in inland NC right now. Enjoy it while it lasts. :)

Quoting KarenRei:


To be fair, it was not without good cause. They've been facing a huge storm of people with no credentials in and little familiarity with the science, motivated by blogs and pundits, to try to find fault with global warming. That's something that scientists in other fields don't face. These people usually do lousy analysis, not understanding the most rudimentary aspects of the field, and then publish their un-peer-reviewed "AHA!" all over the net. One of the "Climategate" scientists who was encouraging others to find ways to turn down requests once had his partner sued for fraud by a day trader who fancied himself a climate scientist. So basically they want to work with these people about as much as they want their teeth drilled.

But that said, as you note, it's not their call. They don't get to pick and choose who they consider legitimate. These are the cards you're dealt. If you want to be a scientist in a controversial field, you need to have a thick skin and be willing to put up with this sort of stuff. Evolutionary biologists have been dealing with it for a century and a half.

Indeed, elitism has no real place in science.

Looking back on our closest analog season, 1998, most of the storms that season where Cape Verde originated.

June 4 2001, Texas, TS Allison caused $5.5 billion in damage 41 deaths. Now that is what I call numbers!

AL, 96, 2010070718, , BEST, 0, 238N, 936W, 30, 1007, DB

wow, weather.com does not allow you to direct link images. so much for posting temp maps
<>a href=" " target="_blank">

637. Not surprising to see the up in winds with the increased organization.

Quoting Hurricanes101:
AL, 96, 2010070718, , BEST, 0, 238N, 936W, 30, 1007, DB

Back up to 30 knots.

Thanks unf97

Quoting TampaTom:
Dang... I have relatives all the way up the east coast, and I'm the coolest of all of them way down here in Florida. What a heatwave...

And, what a difference five months makes since Snowmageddon, Snowpocalypse, Sno Mas! and the like.

and that is one of the many great things about living down here!

Most of the time, its way too cold up there, when it finally heats up, it gets way hotter then anyone wants, so it defeats the purpose of the heat!

As for us, most of the time we just have humid jungle weather, warm and humid to sometimes hot, but rarely too hot.

bonnie and colin may devlop soon,bonnie might be short-lived however colin may persist longer looking at the models not saying its a sure thing all the ingredients seem to be in place for 2 or 3 more storms if all the aoi were named then we wud have been 8 storms down by now

Quoting FLdewey:


I recall getting a 24hour ban way back in 2007 for posting a link to Red Cross donations. I'm pretty sure portlight has something worked out with masters. They do good work.

Portlight was started here on this site during the 2005 season by Patrap and some others on the blog. (if I remember correctly... someone correct me if I'm wrong)

Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Looking back on our closest analog season, 1998, most of the storms that season where Cape Verde originated.

How'd you come up with 1998 as the closest analogy? Why not 2005 (god forbid)? Super-hot waters, not El Nino, etc?

18z SHIPS appears to move 96L inland by the 24 hour mark. Peaks it at 40kts in 18 hours.

I recall getting a 24hour ban way back in 2007 for posting a link to Red Cross donations.

I recall getting a 72 hour ban for the purple hippo taking a dump on Hurricane Danny...

;)

Quoting StormChaser81:


Plenty of clouds in the area you describe? The only spot with barely any clouds is NC and SC.

fair weather clouds...

Well I'm sure this was posted but here we go again on the GFS with Cape Verde mischief coming across the Atlantic during the 10-15 day period, the 2nd half of the month. The pattern looks to be very favorable for this kind of stuff to start developing by then. We're nearing the meat of the season and pretty soon there will be very little down-time between named systems to be tracking.

Quoting watchingnva:


fair weather clouds...

Clouds regardless, anyway you look at it. =)