Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting CybrTeddy:
NHC will go with 60 or 70% IMO. Convection waning means very little.

It will mean a lot of it becomes a trend that doesn't reverse. The cold wake of Alex is more of a limiting factor on convection that some think.

Quoting USSINS:




Don't play that card with me, extreme. That's just "your" opinion, just like mine is an "opinion."

And, LOL, I'm not talking about classifying farts in the wind. Parts of Mexico and TX, like LA just did, are about to get a heckuva lot more than "spurious" amounts of rain and wind. Yet, I'll bet you that there's a substantial percentage of people that haven't a clue what's about to come ashore.

And, the NHC is teetering with percentages. It'd be funny if it weren't so ridiculous.

No their not teetering with percentages because those percentages don't mean anything if a system is classified or not. I've been systems given a LOW chance to develop and they become tropical storms without ever being at a HIGH chance.

Quoting extreme236:


A. TASKING FOR 07/1800Z, 08/0600Z, AND 08/1200Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 07/1220Z.

First recon flight into this system won't be until 18z, so it's very possible we may not get recon.

Then what's this one....

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 08/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 08/0945Z
D. 25.5N 96.5W
E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


And if it isn't until 1800Z I agree with you...it's too late.

Hey everyone..i'm back. I see not much has changed. Other than the possibility of TD2 late tonight or tomorrow.

Quoting cctxshirl:
Don't know what 96L is going to do, but it sure is nasty in CC TX this afternoon. They bay has some big rollers on it and the rains were coming down pretty hard in downtown CC. (I'm watching from my office window instead of working ;))

Same here in the Houston area. Just had a gullywasher...it's almost over just moderate rain now but was pouring just a minute ago...some damage already reported in Houston and 2-5 inches already today in places from Houston area south into Matagorda! And 96L is not even in land yet!

Quoting extreme236:


No their not teetering with percentages because those percentages don't mean anything if a system is classified or not. I've been systems given a LOW chance to develop and they become tropical storms without ever being at a HIGH chance.

Whatever. :P You are entitled to your opinion. And, I will express mine as well. Doesn't mean either one of us are right or wrong. I just prefer erring on the side of safety, whereas your position endangers lives.

Quoting IKE:


Then what's this one....

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 08/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 08/0945Z
D. 25.5N 96.5W
E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


And if it isn't until 1800Z I agree with you...it's too late.

A. TASKING FOR 07/1800Z, 08/0600Z, AND 08/1200Z

Quoting reedzone:


Thats what I'm thinking, TD right before landfall, maybe a weak TS at best. I don't see anything stronger then that. It's moving at a good clip. Back later, great video update btw.

Quoting reedzone:
96L still appears to be disorganized, little change in structure, I'd put odds at 50% for the next TWO. If it doesn't get going tonight, then it won't ever get going. I doubt this becomes "Bonnie", but a TD is possible tomorrow afternoon right before landfall in southern Texas. The NON-TROPICAL low (Reed Low) looks to be starting to gain some Subtropical Characteristics, love tracking these types of storms. I'm keeping chances at 30%. The difference between 90L and future 97L is not much in the way of dry air, has alot of moisture to spurt out the dry air.

Again, which one is it?

Quoting extreme236:


That's also an opinion. Erring on the side of caution makes you look like an idiot and makes people less inclined to listen to the NHC in the future if they classify a system that turns out to be nothing.

It's quite the double edged sword, isn't it?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Again, which one is it?

give him a break... He said earlier it has a small chance of becoming a TS and there he said he doubts it will become Bonnie. Same thing...

Quoting extreme236:


That's also an opinion. Erring on the side of caution makes you look like an idiot and makes people less inclined to listen to the NHC in the future if they classify a system that turns out to be nothing.

I'd hardly call 15 inches of rain in a short period of time "nothing." And TD03 is hardly nothing already, and will be substantial now, even if it does nothing else.

And, listen up, you've started some name-calling now. If you want to further the conversation with me, take it to email. Be glad to discuss it further with you. Capiche'?

Just heard on the news a circulation was found with 96L but only winds of 25mph...she is trying to become a storm!

Quoting extreme236:


A. TASKING FOR 07/1800Z, 08/0600Z, AND 08/1200Z

but notice the recon outlook for today was issued after the orders to eliminate the last recon; seems to me they canceled the 8am recon for tomorrow, but the rescheduled it

NOAA G-IV had an extrap sfc pre of 1002.9mb near 25.317N 92.733W

Quoting Drakoen:
NOAA G-IV had an extrap sfc pre of 1002.9mb near 25.317N 92.733W

How high was it?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Again, which one is it?

I said MAYBE it could become a weak TS at it's worst. Though I'm sticking to TD2, if it ever makes it. The wall of high wind shear seems to be pushing westward with this invest, it's a reason why this hasn't been able to get going real fast, that and the wake of Hurricane Alex is still causing low TCHP where 96L is steering. Never switched my ideas on this from this morning; however, this has gotten better organized, but not enough for me to be impressed just yet. I'll be watching it tonight. These types of systems like to blow up right before landfall, so yes, I am giving it a chance, just not a big one as others are, I have my reasons and statements to back it up.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
How high was it?

Near 640mb. Not a reliable reading.

From Brownsville WFO

FINALLY...THERE WILL BE A SMALL RISK FOR ISOLATED TROPICAL FUNNELS AND TORNADOES IN RAINBANDS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.


Tropical Funnels = ?
Tornado vortex that does not reach the ground?

Quoting weatherman12345:
Will they put a circle on the low east of the Bahamas?

I personally think they might in the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are forecast to relax substantially in the area.

Quoting weatherman12345:
Will they put a circle on the low east of the Bahamas?

More like a large yellow circle around the NON-TROPICAL (Reed) Low ;)

The wave is merging with the hybrid system, which should cause more warm core to develop since the wave is fully warm cored.

Quoting Inyo:


how do you know he doesn't live in Mexico? Maybe he isn't wishing a storm on his own country. Anyway, it is true that storms often kill more people in Mexico. I hope no hurricanes hit any populated areas at all, myself.

Even worse if he lives in Mexico and is wishing it on the US. I retract calling him an idiot. I'll leave those judgements to each individual blogger. Sorry if I damaged anyone's psyche with my name calling.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I personally think they might in the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are forecast to relax substantially in the area.

probably due to the ULL working its way to the surface

Quoting reedzone:


I said MAYBE it could become a weak TS at it's worst. Though I'm sticking to TD2, if it ever makes it. The wall of high wind shear seems to be pushing westward with this invest, it's a reason why this hasn't been able to get going real fast, that and the wake of Hurricane Alex is still causing low TCHP where 96L is steering. Never switched my ideas on this from this morning; however, this has gotten better organized, but not enough for me to be impressed just yet. I'll be watching it tonight. These types of systems like to blow up right before landfall, so yes, I am giving it a chance, just not a big one as others are, I have my reasons and statements to back it up.

That's fine.

23.1/93.5 anyone?

Quoting Hurricanes101:


probably due to the ULL working its way to the surface

Precisely.

Quoting reedzone:


I said MAYBE it could become a weak TS at it's worst. Though I'm sticking to TD2, if it ever makes it. The wall of high wind shear seems to be pushing westward with this invest, it's a reason why this hasn't been able to get going real fast, that and the wake of Hurricane Alex is still causing low TCHP where 96L is steering. Never switched my ideas on this from this morning; however, this has gotten better organized, but not enough for me to be impressed just yet. I'll be watching it tonight. These types of systems like to blow up right before landfall, so yes, I am giving it a chance, just not a big one as others are, I have my reasons and statements to back it up.

Stand your corner reed. There are bloggers here who have impressive met knowledge and input but are guilty of slightly inflating or exagerating forecasts on a daily basis

Quoting Drakoen:


Near 640mb. Not a reliable reading.

Yup.

Quoting Drakoen:
NOAA G-IV had an extrap sfc pre of 1002.9mb near 25.317N 92.733W

I think thats the P3. G-IV only reports dropsondes.

heat waves, drouts,and floods have not increased, but global communications and reporting tecniques have.

Quoting btwntx08:
1173: corpus christi wfo actually wrote that not brownsville its just placed inside on the hazardous weather outlook

Ok, but what is a tropical funnel? Never have seen that description used before.

Quoting yonzabam:
It looks like 96L is going to cause serious flooding:

Link


Link

Indeed, and now with more rain on the way, that could "linger" for days. People sometimes forget that flooding is the great killer in any kind of tropical system. The wind is a sideshow, in terms of human fatalities.

If I lived in the Rio Grande valley, I think I'd be moving south, instead of north.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's fine.

lol, I'm not mad or arguing, just answering your questing "which is it?"

We'll see what tonight brings, hey, I have some crow ready for me in the morning, along with my eggs ;)

Quoting bakers:
heat waves, drouts,and floods have not increased, but global communications and reporting tecniques have.

Ah the GW sceptics are out...

Almost every model now has whatever 96L will become going in no farther south that Brownsville.

At least that's good news for the flood ravaged folks in Mexico.

Quoting reedzone:


lol, I'm not mad or arguing, just answering your questing "which is it?"

We'll see what tonight brings, hey, I have some crow ready for me in the morning, along with my eggs ;)

Eat the eggs first, I want you to taste that crow good :D

Quoting calder:


Stand your corner reed. There are bloggers here who have impressive met knowledge and input but are guilty of slightly inflating or exagerating forecasts on a daily basis

Ehh, I do have a slight gut feeling that I am wrong and this becomes a 40-50 mph. storm in the morning.. remember Erin form 2007? Though I look at the data, cooler TCHP and the time limit keeps my thoughts the same on 96L.

Quoting reedzone:


lol, I'm not mad or arguing, just answering your questing "which is it?"

We'll see what tonight brings, hey, I have some crow ready for me in the morning, along with my eggs ;)

LOL!

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Eat the eggs first, I want you to taste that crow good :D

Indeed, it's defrosting, just in case.. ;)

Quoting calder:


Stand your corner reed. There are bloggers here who have impressive met knowledge and input but are guilty of slightly inflating or exagerating forecasts on a daily basis

Oh come on, please tell me your kidding?

Quoting reedzone:


lol, I'm not mad or arguing, just answering your questing "which is it?"

We'll see what tonight brings, hey, I have some crow ready for me in the morning, along with my eggs ;)

That's the spirit son. :-)

Quoting reedzone:


Ehh, I do have a slight gut feeling that I am wrong and this becomes a 40-50 mph. storm in the morning.. remember Erin form 2007? Though I look at the data, cooler TCHP and the time limit keeps my thoughts the same on 96L.

i appreciate that too, im just saying that there are actually very few people on this blog that give a balanced and non-bias prediction usually. I agree weak TS at worst case. Ppl this week been calling for cat 3 tho consistently...

Quoting calder:


i appreciate that too, im just saying that there are actually very few people on this blog that give a balanced and non-bias prediction usually. I agree weak TS at worst case. Ppl this week been calling for cat 3 tho consistently...

I've only seen Taz say that and he was just kidding around. We've all here have pretty much agreed that at most 96L will become a 45 mph TS.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh come on, please tell me your kidding?

fraid not, it's how i see it

Well it ain't purty... but it is starting to effect more and more of the gulf...