Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Also an INVEST labeled in the 80's in a TEST INVEST

Quoting Orcasystems:


AOI

Do you think this qualifies already for a depression

Quoting MahFL:


They will go where they go, my desires do not matter.

That's a fact...

Quoting MahFL:
Don't get me wrong, ideally I'd like a nice cat 1....but if a cat 3 comes....we are out of here !!!!

"Ideally", you'd log off........

Quoting StormSurgeon:


Sorry, It's not a "name", it's a numeric designation.

Wow, way to nitpick LOL. Although I don't think you were trying to start an argument, and you're technically more correct.. but isn't a numeric designation just a type of name?

Quoting FLdewey:


And an invest labeled in the 70's is a DISCO INVEST!

LOL!

I've lived in Pensacola, right by the water, all of my life. I'm 50. I went thru Eloise in '75, Frederic in '79, Elena in '85, Erin and Opal in '95, Georges in '98. The point of all this is that I considered myself a "hurricane vetern" after experiencing all of those storms. That all changed on Sept, 15, 2004 when IVAN blew thru and re-defined my definition of a hurricane. Those other storms could not compare to ferocity and level of violence and damage that IVAN caused. I'm cured. I don't ever want to see that again.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Wow, way to nitpick LOL. Although I don't think you were trying to start an argument, and you're technically more correct.. but isn't a numeric designation just a type of name?

Sorry, sat on a cactus this morning.....LOL

Quoting StormSurgeon:


Sorry, sat on a cactus this morning.....LOL

Ouch!

.

Quoting StormSurgeon:


Sorry, sat on a cactus this morning.....LOL

LOL :)

RE: 156.

Uncalled for dude.

MahFL- are you in Jacksonville???!

The COC of 96L is just off shore 21.3N 90.3W

Quoting belizeit:
Do you think this qualifies already for a depression

no, why would it.

aspectre "How is crude getting into LakePontchartrain? Storm waves upon high tide overtopping the coast? Or leaving Rigolets/etc open for boat traffic instead of blocking the passages?
120 tkeith "both... Oh, and the booms dont work either. I spent 2 years building the new Rigolets Bridge and the currents at the Rigolets are comparative to river currents. I've spent alot of time on Pontchatrain, it makes me physically ill to see this."

My experiences were the coastal areas west of NewOrleans. It tightens my gut to think about them getting slimed... and about what it must be doing to the people who made their living/lifestyle there (though I s'pose things have changed so much that the lifestyle in my memories is mostly a thing of the past).
But I was thinking in terms of totally blocking inflow: eg dredging LakePonchartrain and dumping the mud&shells&etc into the passages. Too strong a current?

Quoting belizeit:
Do you think this qualifies already for a depression

I don't, but one of the models did.

hey doug actually freddy was a stronger storm than ivan at landfall. it was closer to sw al se ms on landfall. freddy was stengthening at landfall while ivan was weaker. actually as far as winds go only camille was stonger than freddy at landfall. freddy was also the costliest storm to hit the us at that time. not being picky but ask the folks on dauphin island what was worse for them freddy or ivan? they had thier island cut in two, and lost thier whole bridge. if orange beach and gulf shores were as built up in 1979 as they were in 2004 they may never rebuilt to that level lol. the only reason i state this is to me freddy is a ignored storm. in us landfalls, in the last 40 years, only hugo, andrew, camille, and charley had higher sustained winds than freddy at landfall and it was much larger than andrew and charley.fredrick the forgotten storm.

Quoting StormW:
INVEST 96L / TROPICAL SYNOPSIS ISSUED 7:30 A.M. JULY 07 2010

Mornin' Storm! Thanks for the update!
We'll be leaving for FL July 17 - see what you can do to keep the storms at bay! lol

Never seen so much use of the word Decoupled and so misused and its only July 7th!

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I've lived in Pensacola, right by the water, all of my life. I'm 50. I went thru Eloise in '75, Frederic in '79, Elena in '85, Erin and Opal in '95, Georges in '98. The point of all this is that I considered myself a "hurricane vetern" after experiencing all of those storms. That all changed on Sept, 15, 2004 when IVAN blew thru and re-defined my definition of a hurricane. Those other storms could not compare to ferocity and level of violence and damage that IVAN caused. I'm cured. I don't ever want to see that again.

You went through Eloise? I would like to hear your experience on that. Eloise was a weird and powerful storm.

Freddy was a badass no doubt. I live next to the Naval Air Station. I was alot closer to IVAN than FREDDY and my personal experience was much worse with IVAN because of the proximity. FREDDY went up just west of Mobile if I remember right, While IVAN came in at Orange Beach.

Quoting StormW:


Where to?

Navarre....a little slice of Heaven!

Thanks Storm,,,more rain for Houston..

I have been a watcher of this blog since 2004. I do not consider myself sufficient to talk about meteorological events. So I have the proverbial "dumb question". From all the reading I've done, the high pressure that has existed over the southeast (I'm a resident of Florida in Ft Pierce)is not good from the standpoint of recurving tropical storms or hurricanes away from the Southeast Florida coast. Right? But if I recall, if the Bermuda High is extended further east in the Atlantic, that would either help in turning them toward us or bringing them up towards Bermuda. Is my understanding correct?

Here is Crown Wx's Tropical Discussion


Invest 96-L: Invest 96-L is looking quite pathetic this morning as it lacks persistent deep convection, although some new thunderstorm activity has begun to develop on the western side of this system over the past hour or two. Invest 96-L is a broad low pressure system that is located near the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The reason for the lack of deep convection near the center of the storm is that the low-level circulation and the mid-level circulation have split. The low-level circulation is tracking towards the central Texas coast, while that mid-level circulation is tracking towards northeast Mexico. This decoupling will make for a tough road for this system to really develop. It is possible that the mid-level center could develop further and lead to a new low level center developing and then going further and developing into a tropical cyclone. However, the combination of cooler, upwelled ocean waters from Alex and dry air, it seems less likely this morning that this system will develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

With that said, the upper Texas coast, especially the Houston-Galveston area will have some very stormy weather today with widespread thunderstorms, heavy rainfall of around 2 inches expected and gusty winds. That mid-level center is forecast to track onshore in northeast Mexico during Thursday afternoon. It is still possible that this system could spin up into a tropical depression/tropical storm today into Thursday morning, especially as it nears the coast and takes advantage of the shape of the coastline and this is something that will be monitored closely.

Non-Tropical Low Pressure System Located 250 Miles West-Northwest Of Bermuda: I’m watching with some interest a non-tropical area of low pressure that is located about 250 miles west-northwest of Bermuda or near 35 North Latitude, 69 West Longitude. This is a very large system and is producing some convection near the center. It appears that this low pressure system will track southwestward today through Thursday and will be located just off of the coast of North Carolina late Thursday. After that, a frontal system will sweep this low pressure system out into the open Atlantic by this weekend. While this system will be watched very closely over the next few days, I do not think it will have enough time to transition into a tropical storm.

Trouble Brewing In The Long Range Model Guidance: The long range guidance like the GFS model and the European model are strongly hinting at tropical development in the eastern Atlantic by around July 17th to July 19th and this has the potential to be our first Cape Verde long track storm. The very long range GFS model (goes out 2 weeks) forecasts this particular system to be on the doorstep of the Lesser Antilles and Barbados around July 22nd. It should also be noted that the GFS model also is hinting at something trying to get going just north of Puerto Rico around July 17th.

I bring this up because it is not out of the question and I would not be at all surprised to have our first Cape Verde long tracked storm around Mid-July. The ensemble guidance is also strongly hinting at this with the ensemble members showing low pressure east of the Lesser Antilles around mid-July. Also teleconnections favor this type of an event. So, obviously this is something to keep an eye out for over the next week or two

I had a conversation with one of my customers yesterday about preparing/evacuating for a storm. She insists that "her house has been here for 60 years and there is no need to leave" even for a cat3 or 4. I pointed out there hasn't been a direct hit here in Panama City in decades. She then inisted that Opal was a direct hit...Which it was not. I thought it was a PCola hit and it was. It is sad that even people that should know better, don't.

your right doug ms/al line right at land fall 135mph winds ivan 120. have a condo on orange beach, folks form thier and toward fort morgan still say freddy is the king. i know mobile and east ms do as far as winds go lol

Quoting Patrap:

and here comes round....20? Mornin' Pat.

Quoting hydrus:
You went through Eloise? I would like to hear your experience on that. Eloise was a weird and powerful storm.

I was 15 when Eloise came thru. My neighborhood didn't suffer the surge like we did in IVAN. What I remember from Eloise is mostly trees blown over and lots of busted limbs. I didnt have a car then so I wasn't able to get out and do much surveying.But what I saw for damage was mostly superficial.

morn' hh..

96L - no noise upstairs .... but [ "I've got a bad feeling about this drop." ]

Thank-you, Dr. Rob!

I was a little surprised to find my neck of the woods (NW VT) being part of the main Tropical blog post until I read that heat wave deaths are "more than all of the deaths due to lightning, flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes."

Since many of us don't have air conditioning, this is our difficulty, much as folks in the south struggle when it snows, not having snowplows. To tell you the truth, I'd rather have minus-20 temps than plus-95! You can always add layers, but you can only take off layers just so far!

Those of you in the south who have managed at times without AC might want to tell your friends to the north some of your coping tips. Moreover, if you know someone up here who may not truly realise the dangers of working hard out in the heat, please give them a call.

I work at the local pubic Library and it's incredible how many people come through and comment that they were "out in the garden for three hours" in the middle of the day, while it's 93 degrees out! Easy to say "DUH!" but they just aren't experienced in what could go wrong. Or, as my husband likes to say it, "They're too young to know all that could happen."

Thanks! Take care, everybody!

but doug as far as winds and surge combined try 190 sustained camille, or 35 ft surge of water near waveland katrina. contrary to belief it seems our little coastline gets all the record breakers lol have a blessed day.

There is nothing wrong with having a desire to see a cane, but just remember to have your kit ready. Obviously if you are in a flood zone and a big surge comes you must evacuate, but if you have shutters or plywood...going through a cat 1 or 2 is not too bad if you are prepared.

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
but doug as far as winds and surge combined try 190 sustained camille, or 35 ft surge of water near waveland katrina. contrary to belief it seems our little coastline gets all the record breakers lol have a blessed day.

Camille surge Height was 24 Ft..in Biloxi.


Waveland was on the West side of the Eyewall with offshore winds..

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
but doug as far as winds and surge combined try 190 sustained camille, or 35 ft surge of water near waveland katrina. contrary to belief it seems our little coastline gets all the record breakers lol have a blessed day.

LOL! I have seen all I wish to see of landfalling 'canes. Like I said in the earlier post. I'm cured!

What heat? We got 3.3" of rain from "Alex" last week, and 1.4" from "96L" so far this week (or 95, or both??!!) Our heat wave peaked just before that. I don't wish any storms on anyone naturally, but a southeast texas drought is a misnomer, that's for sure. Anyone have any thoughts on the spin around 13N 43W???

In September 1979, my wife and I were about 3 months married when Hurricane David came through Jupiter, FL up through where I lived at the time (Port St. Lucie, FL). I thought it was so cool with all the wind and stuff. We didn't lose power and cable tv stayed online. After experiencing Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne, I never ever ever ever want to go through another one.