Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf
Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.
Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.
Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.
The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.
Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS
Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.
Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS
Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.
Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 — Blog Index
Mission(Why We Exist)
To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards through global outreach.
Based on the possibility that this thing could ramp up to 50 or so mph, they had to put out something at 10PM in time for the news. No time to wait. It may not ramp up and it may die out - but as their first function is the safety of the US public, not science, it had to be done.
Yes and by our real-world observations we know that it is tropical. It appears as "barely" on the model because TD 2 is obviously a very weak system with little convective core to speak of, and thus its warm-core structure is ill-defined and not very strong. It has not matured to the point where it can significantly warm its core.
Strong hurricanes will dive deeper into that red box.
Thanks, Levi32...out of the mouth of babes :)
Ah, but a better, general and concerted alertness could have helped prevent loss of life, though fortunately, I've seen no casualties reported. They got lucky, having 15 inches of rain fall swest of Morgan City in just a short period of time. IMO, it's certainly better to err on the side of caution than not.
Atmo, I'm not talking about a rush to name a system or declare a TS without having met stringent criteria, but these tropical systems can wreak much havoc in their simplest forms/unformed. IMO, that's what the "TD" status used to be used and why it was declared, to create general awareness of an approaching dangerous system.
Stormtopp drinks Uptown?
I was at Henry's on Magazine earlier..
I'm going to come out of lurking for a moment-
does anyone believe the dry air to the east of TD2 will help to hinder any further intensification
Perhaps....still a long way off. The pattern will be favorable for possible development out there after the 15th.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
No..theres a nice sized moisture field surrounding TD2. So theres not much chance of it getting entrained into the circulation.
IIRC, they did have the flood warnings up.
Though, we have seen that much rain in a day here before, without a TD...
Dat Big butted 1016mb HIGH is shoving 96L's envelope BIG time
I'm out too. L8R, y'all.
LOL
lololololo ... too funny pat ..love it
If people would prepare for the worst case scenario with in reason, then they should be alright. Is there that big of a difference in a Cat 2 storm with 108 mph wind and a Cat 3 with 112 mph winds.
A man who is in a making $205,000 per year really any richer than a man making $195,000 per year.
It's like arguing who was a better homerun hitter, Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron, it will go on for eternity with no one being proven right.
E X A C T L Y. Thank you for posting that. The mission statement says it clearly. It's not the technicality of declaring a TD that's important, but rather as the statement says to protect life and property. They've done the right thing for 96 and they should have taken the same posture with 95.
No if you look a little further down that is actually a fist with the index and pinky finger sticking up pointing at texas saying im about to rock out! lol
LOL
Doubtful in my opinion, as the circulation is so firmly embedded in a moisture rich environment. Dry air isn't one of TD 2's problems right now.
Nice! What University are you going to attend?
Welcome Jared. I'm not in school anymore but I've learned a lot here too. Some of our best bloggers are young people interested in meteorology also. Looking forward to your input as you get along in your studies.:)
Your still on homeless? :)
But not here
More like off and on. Was kinda crazy in here earlier so I left.
It looks better than TD2. lol
oh really, I must of missed it.
Viewing: 801 - 851
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 — Blog Index