Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf
Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.
Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.
Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.
The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.
Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS
Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.
Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS
Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.
Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.
Reader Comments
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Well we've got the winds covered. Max sustained winds are at 35 mph, which of course is TD strength. As for convection, well........
On Tropical Atlantic somehow the mission got split up, there is a continuation as another mission that shows them closing in on the center in that box pattern.
Exactly.
It is the letter I. LOL
great, but its not much time until it gets to land, and convection is waning not building.
Exactly.
Thanks!!!!! Appreciate it.I just keep learning on this blog.
Apparently so>>>Link
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Evening Geoff!
Semper Fi Big dog
Air Wing 80-88
G' evening Hawk
Yeah I realized that too late. It happened yesterday too where it got split into two missions...not sure why. Took me a while to figure out that it wasn't a data transmission delay in Google Earth.
The latest obs from the recon show the mid-level center (remember these winds are up at 640mb) becoming closer to vertically stacked over the surface center. The doors are now open for 96L to strengthen into a tropical cyclone, but Alex's cold wake is severely limiting convection at the moment. We'll see if diurnal max tonight helps it try to burst before landfall.
And from what I can see, you can make a good argument to classify 96L now!
It's ok.
Me too... VMFP-3 at El Toro LOL
It is not nice to tease old people. It took me a half hour to find the CIMSS site, and sure enough they mention it in the blog. Missed it by one minute. Looks healthy
I hope it's worth it; for me, will have to see what happens in the morning :)
Not so bad, yourself?
Hey, Canes, thought you left the blog. Looks like a healthy little system forming.
SAB T number was 1.5. If TAFB's was also 1.5 that would be just enough to allow for classification if they so wish.
Pretty much anyone that was affected by Alex needs to be on the lookout. We were so far from Alex here in Houston, yet around 5-15 inches of rain fell in parts of my county alone. I feel bad for the people of Mexico though because they are not as prepared as we are here in Texas. I pray they and everyone affected by 96L are all ok after 96L passes on through!
But it will be a weak TS at best...... lucky it does not have another day...... much like lucky for Alex.
Hi Extreme..could you please post the link for the TAFB #'s? Thanks.
96L though is the exact opposite of Alex. This one is more small and compact, so the effects of this storm aren't going to be as widespread.
Way too much emphasis...I have seen tropical cyclones develop with strong anticyclonic outflow with 78F water temps. But this one looks like a TD at best at landfall...just a rain/flood maker.
I'm going with a landfall between Brownsville and Port Mansfield.
I'm still waiting for it myself actually. I will post as soon as it comes out.
There's still a good bit of sub-28C SSTs left in there, and wakes left by major hurricanes are notorious for being worse for following storms than they look on the SST map. They leave a bigger mark on the environment than it appears sometimes.
The ULL over south Texas also continues to back away so I don't see dry air being too big of an issue here, so I am inclined to believe it is Alex's wake that is at fault here.
Houston expected to get another 5 inches tomorrow. I may need a boat!!
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