Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf
Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.
Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.
Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.
The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.
Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS
Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.
Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS
Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.
Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.
Reader Comments
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Poof
-GRAPHICS UPDATE
Tropical Depression Two
The missions they were flying...they're higher up in the atmosphere and can't detect a circulation or can they?
Yeah, but the relief after surgery was a tangible thing...any pain I have now is a pale echo by comparison
You have mail!
How is Rock and Roll??
Restore The Gulf.gov
Watch the ATL off of the Carolinas.
Upper low moving sw will pinwheel a surface feature to near the coast where it it will begin its transition to warm-core and then move north by northeast to make an intersting weekend in the heatwave areas and beyond.
Unless we set the criteria to over water, moisture present, wind present. We will then name thunderstorms.
It was still attached to the frontal boundary at that point; again the basic definition of a tropical cyclone is it has to be non-frontal in nature; 95L was frontal in nature over all of its lifetime with the exception of the last 3 hours before landfall
Had it shed that front even 12 hours earlier, I agree with you it probably could have gotten classified, but it didn't
We would have to wait more than 10 minutes to see the data :)
Amazing
I like to think so...LOL
so don't insult me if I ask something dumb.
You and me both! :)
So true....
I like this blog...it cracks me up!
You and me both! :)
Cheap entertainment no doubt.
That is the reason I don't ever "poof" anyone!
that ULL has worked its way to the surface now
Dry air is bieng cut off
Convergence:
Dropping shear
Not really, difficult to interpolate the wind direction at 12K feet to near surface and as far as I am aware there is no directional component to the SFMR, only windspeed. The 3D Radar they were researching would give an indication, but I don't know how realtime that data is currently available.
You know, the way you're flailing around, one would think someone had struck a nerve or something...you OK?
Welcome. I am a self-professed "weather weenie" too.
Nirvana has been attained.
Now for some mo java.
The wave near 40W appears well-organized. That needs to be monitored if it can lift enough to miss South America.
off topic, but Floodman, hope your continued recovery is successful. few that have not had spine issues or procedures can truly empathize. I had ALIF 3 yrs ago (after 7 other procedures) and still struggle with it today, but yesterday I climbed an un-restored, rural stretch of the Great Wall of China as my first real test and it was successful ;)
I don't know why either. It looks like it could develop into something subtropical.JMO
WTNT62 KNHC 081512
TCUAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1015 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010
...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 97.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
LOL
I am the only one speaking up....it seems....would you like me to start posting emails from the many bloggers feeling exactly the same way.......don't worry i would never do that.......but, trust me the many emails i have received.....more than 12 lets put it that way......I'm ok! When your post gets challegned every time by a 13yo...then something is really wrong.....read back at every post!
I usually don't go on the offensive against a NHC call, I didn't for 95L or TD2.. but I will admit the 90L in May 2009 might not have been fully thought through. Even NWS outfits were calling 90L a tropical storm. 90L was a tropical storm, QuikSCAT (RIP) had shown a well defined COC with winds over 40 mph. It also sustained convection for over 6 hours (something that 95L didn't btw, it was attached to a front) I was shocked that 90L wasn't called an unnamed TS.
(ps got these from stormchaser and weather456)
Congratulations! The key to staying on top of it, even after a successful surgery, is to stay active...it's easy to just sit and be comfortable, but that only makes matters worse
Keep up the hard work (I know it's hard work...trust me)
Welcome, If you want to ask Question's direct them to Levi, StormW, Weather456, maybe a few others.
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