Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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reed in 20 minutes or so you'll proabably be scratching your head in astonishment,96L's a TD now....
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TD2

invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren


...Wow. I can spit more moisture than this thing can...
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007080225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Quoting IKE:
New frame...no way this gets updated at 10pm. Watch em do it and prove me wrong again.....



I can't think of any invest that was ever classified with little to no convection. In my opinion, we need to wait till the morning or afternoon to call a TD/storm.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


he is 0 for 2 so far lol

looks organized
red on the 8pm TWO
Make that 0 for 3.

TD 2 just got classified.
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286. IKE
What a joke....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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My 87 year old grandparents had to use a fan and a block of ice to ensure they stayed cool enough to reamin healthy when they were kids

case in point, we do what we must to survive as opposed to just sitting back and wasting away...

Night all... I'll check back later to meet Bonnie
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283. IKE
Quoting extreme236:
I don't see a vortex message??


From post 106....

Time: 01:22:00Z
Coordinates: 23.9N 93.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 639.1 mb (~ 18.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,876 meters (~ 12,717 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.0 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 111° at 11 knots (From the ESE at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 7.4°C (~ 45.3°F)
Dew Pt: 5.6°C (~ 42.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots* (~ 27.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr* (~ 0.20 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

looks like 1002mb....is the lowest they found in there...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Ike...

Crow.
ROFLMAO!
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TxMarc71, where are you located? Hitchcock here.
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Ike...

Crow.
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Quoting IKE:
New frame...no way this gets updated at 10pm. Watch em do it and prove me wrong again.....

LMAO!! We have TD #2.
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Quoting Orcasystems:

None found


none will be found, this kind of recon does not do vortex messages as far as I know
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007080225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Looks like they upgraded.
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TD2

invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren
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Until we get convection..... no TD!

Having said that, I do believe we will have a TD by daybreak..... the convection will come! In my mind, no reason it wouldn't!

But hey...... what do I know? I am just a fan of the National Champion's in baseball! LOL
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Quoting extreme236:
I don't see a vortex message??

None found
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273. Halyn
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
LOL, you got me cornered! You obviously don't know what it's like to live on a fixed income. Sometimes people have to decide between keeping cool or putting food on the table. The AC's you talk about might be cheap but not the bill. Also, I'm willing to bet if everyone in the northeast followed your advice and suddenly purchased an AC that the local power companies electrical grids couldn't handle it. Then you would have blackout, meaning no AC or lights, but I am making an assumption on this. Maybe someone who lives in on of these northeastern states can enlighten the both of us. Hey, post# 1595, I couldn't find the product you were referring to, but I did like the 2 seater hovercraft.
I know what it is like on a fixed income .. and my electric bills in Illinois run $150-$200/month with a/c .. and I follow every suggestion I can fund to cut electric use ! I know the choices, too, AllBoardedUp .. :)
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Quoting IKE:


I don't see it w/96L. Structure looks good but little to no convection.

I noticed the pressure went up on the latest vortex and the surface winds were 25 mph.

I think the NHC jumped the gun going w/80% on 96L.
I don't know where you got the vortex message from. Maybe you meant dropsonde.
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Post#248, I drove to Lake Jackson on Sunday afternoon. Saw the RV park on FM 2004 next to Austin Bayou almost underwater. Looked bad.
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270. IKE
New frame...no way this gets updated at 10pm. Watch em do it and prove me wrong again.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
What happened to all of the soon to be storms out there? Now there is just one (barely)....
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Quoting BaltOCane:
Levi, did you do a "TT" for today? I missed it... work and such... :(


I did.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 7th
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I don't see a vortex message??
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
I keep thinking of this band over the Yucatan coming around and slamming us later...


I am thinking exactly the same thing...
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265. beell
If you want, turn on the Lat/Lon overlay.

Check out the banded cloud structure that extends from about 25N/94W to the SE near 23N/92W on the last few frames of the IR loop. This is near the center. Appears to be ripping off to the SE pretty quick.

Link

May explain the lack of convection-or a part of it anyway. Maybe not.
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Again for the 800th time, 95L was FRONTAL in nature all the way until 3 hours before landfall

96L is FULLY TROPICAL

Huge difference
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Quoting IKE:


I don't see it w/96L. Structure looks good but little to no convection.

I noticed the pressure went up on the latest vortex and the surface winds were 25 mph.

I think the NHC jumped the gun going w/80% on 96L.


I definitly agree, if this is a TD.... hah
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Levi, did you do a "TT" for today? I missed it... work and such... :(
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Good night all. I look forward to reading all of your thoughts tomorrow. Hopefully I can drive my kids to gymnastics tomorrow and don't have to break out the kayaks! On a serious note, thanks to all of the experts and hobbiest who have kept me informed through Rita and Ike (as well as the other bullets we have dodged). This little Canadian (who now lives in Texas and has spent a few years in Louisianas- geaux tigers) has learned a lot on this site. I appreciate it.
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260. IKE
Quoting reedzone:


Looks elongated and convection continues to decrease, a very bad excuse for a TD, this is still 96L as of 11 p.m. I'm confident on that one. If they cant classify 95L, why would they classify this one? They will wait till morning or afternoon after DMAX has passed.


I don't see it w/96L. Structure looks good but little to no convection.

I noticed the pressure went up on the latest vortex and the surface winds were 25 mph.

I think the NHC jumped the gun going w/80% on 96L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Just got on, what did recon find?
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96L needs to hurry up and do it's thing, it's past the halfway mark from the Yucatan and Texas.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
LOL, you got me cornered! You obviously don't know what it's like to live on a fixed income. Sometimes people have to decide between keeping cool or putting food on the table. The AC's you talk about might be cheap but not the bill. Also, I'm willing to bet if everyone in the northeast followed your advice and suddenly purchased an AC that the local power companies electrical grids couldn't handle it. Then you would have blackout, meaning no AC or lights, but I am making an assumption on this. Maybe someone who lives in on of these northeastern states can enlighten the both of us. Hey, post# 1595, I couldn't find the product you were referring to, but I did like the 2 seater hovercraft.


My income is very fixed but if a CAT5 is bearing down on Galveston I'll bet u find the gas money to get out of Dodge? I know I would, and the same principle applies to the light bill in the face of triple digit heat..

If it comes down to your life or a high light bill it seems like a no brainer to me..

""I,ll just sit here and die because I am worred about next months light bill"" makes no sense.. its one day at a time in that situation and you do what you have to do to make sure you have another day coming..
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Floater - Water Vapor Loop

Ack,,coff,,sputter..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting TXnovice:
tar balls reported in Galveston, Tx as well


I just saw they found more today. Could be worse, hopefully it is just coming from the ships and not actually floating over here.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
Is recon still investigating 96L?


I "think" they are leaving.



AOI
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Quoting centex:
I think something must be missing from that explanation. Take a common scenario, at heat of day the air may be 90 and the water is 80 but early in morning the air may be 70 and the water still 80, both 10 degree differences.


I think he got it just fine.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


We have a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sat from a disturbance off the east coast and a cold front.


ill believe it when i feel the raindrops falling on my face...
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Quoting Levi32:


Why thank you =)


You are most welcome. Glad to have you aboard! Lol.
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I tell you what.... Once the wave at approx 43w 4N gets above 8N... In my opinion it will have many of the ingredients to explode. Favorable shear, Favorable steering... and lots and lots of hot water!
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The whole idea is that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic can form in a whole variety of ways, in more ways than any other tropical basin on earth. Some of those ways include those of other basins, such as the Indian Ocean and west Pacific in some cases, though not as common as others. In 2010, we will see more of these kinds of things that we aren't used to seeing so often.
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Quoting txalwaysprepared:


League City here


Hi Txalways...

Danbury, TX here.

About ready to swim...
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Quoting IKE:


Where?



Looks elongated and convection continues to decrease, a very bad excuse for a TD, this is still 96L as of 11 p.m. I'm confident on that one. If they cant classify 95L, why would they classify this one? They will wait till morning or afternoon after DMAX has passed.
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the massive storms
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Quoting TxMarc71:


Still what?? I AGREE WITH YOU! However, it was the topic of the last blog post and a discussion that has been going for the better of the afternoon. Well befroe you got here...so pleasedont come one here and play yet blog cop with lil man syndrome about something you just caught the tail end of..
Tropicfreak, your right, I'll let TxMarc71 finish me off and then I'll drop it>
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244. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Bonnie looks formed already. The signature clouds are there along with the moisture and heat. Did anyone notice the very latest infrared? Look at the blow up of convection! We have a storm.


What?

You want to post a pic or link to that convection blow up? There is no blow up I can see! LOL

Here is what I am looking at. Notice there is no "red" near the LLC?
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Quoting reedzone:


Reminds me soo much of Erin in 2007. Which is why I am keeping my crow in the fridge for the morning. Erin was in the same position, then suddenly formed near the coastline.


Erin formed farther east than 96L did....
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Quoting stillwaiting:
wow,tarballs reported along Floridas east coastline in cocoa beach area!!!
That's gotta' be from some other cause besides DWH. They would have shown up in the Keys and further south on the mainland first if it was from DWH. I believe the forecast calls for a high likelihood along the Gulfstream in SEFL, but once the worst of it flows down the Sebastian Inlet the majority of the rest should go away from the coast, until the outer banks.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.