Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...

It doesn't

Quoting MagicSpork:
Hola everybody, long time listener, first time caller...

I tell ya, nothing is more depressing than looking out the window of your office building and seeing nothing but grey in all directions.

Actually, I take that back. The only thing more depressing than that is seeing a perfectly clear sky, knowing that thre are a bunch of drunk teenagers having fun on the beach while you're stuck at work

Could be worse. I work in a basement. The view never changes...

Quoting HurricaneKyle:


ITCZ certainly is active today. Hard to believe we won't get a system in that area the next few weeks.

yeah, or then again who knows...

I'm fairly confident we will see a system or two next week. I guess TD 2 was just one of those depressions that never become tropical storms.

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...


Also it might depend on the land features themselves. Hurricane Wilma strengthened as she crossed the Florida Everglades (October 24th, 2005) and was a stronger storm wind-wise (maybe pressure as well) as she raked across Broward and Palm Beach counties, than when she made landfall near Naples, on the west coast.

In her case, it was probably the lack of land friction (no hills or buildings in the everglades) and perhaps even the heat content of the watery swamp.

Of course I am no expert, so take that as opinion :)

Quoting ElConando:
Los extranjeros hablan espanol!

Una Pregunta, The MJO pulse is coming in next week right?

Since the Atlantic basin is basically the warmest place in the world, the MJO won't be leaving for a while. To give you an idea, we likely will only be under downward motion this month for less than a week. For a better explanation contact Levi32's blog.

Haven't noticed 456 on the blog lately. He's still around, right?

Quoting Baltimorebird:
No on tropical storm formation

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Translation:the aliens speak spanish.

So who is the real bird from Baltimore?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So who is the real bird from Baltimore?

BaltimoreBirds

Looks like TD2 is now west of Brownsville,TX...

Brownsville, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 55 sec ago
Heavy Rain
79 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 22 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 30 mph
Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.8 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 3.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


BaltimoreBirds

I know, LOL, I was just messin' around.

Quoting SunriseSteeda:

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...


Also it might depend on the land features themselves. Hurricane Wilma strengthened as she crossed the Florida Everglades (October 24th, 2005) and was a stronger storm wind-wise (maybe pressure as well) as she raked across Broward and Palm Beach counties, than when she made landfall near Naples, on the west coast.

In her case, it was probably the lack of land friction (no hills or buildings in the everglades) and perhaps even the heat content of the watery swamp.

Of course I am no expert, so take that as opinion :)

Interestingly enough I just read that Wilma "weakened" as she crossed the state, but in western Broward county (edge of Everglades) she was certainly stronger than a 110-mph storm before she hit the coast.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
311 AM EDT THU JUL 8 2010

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-090715-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
311 AM EDT THU JUL 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS. MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

BP's costs over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill soared overnight above $US3 billion ($3.6 billion), while a giant Taiwanese ship provided hope of revolutionising on-sea skimming operations.

"The cost of the response to date amounts to approximately $US3.12 billion, including the cost of the spill response, containment, relief well drilling, grants to the Gulf states, claims paid, and federal costs," BP said.

The latest estimate is far higher than the $US2.65 billion given by the energy firm one week ago.

BP's share price has collapsed more than 50 per cent since the Deepwater Horizon oil rig it leased sank on April 22, two days after a blast that killed 11 workers.

After intense pressure from President Barack Obama over the worst ever US environmental disaster, BP agreed last month to suspend its shareholder dividend and create a $US20 billion fund for costs arising from the spill.
BP is also selling non-core assets to raise $US10 billion, while international ratings agencies have downgraded the company's credit worthiness.

But yesterday, spokesman Robert Wine discredited a Sunday Times report that the company was turning to rival oil groups and sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the oil-rich Middle East to fend off a possible hostile takeover bid.

"We have no current plans to issue new equity," he told AFP.

Nearly a week after Hurricane Alex swept through the region, bad weather continued to hamper the clean-up, keeping smaller skimming vessels tied up in harbors in the affected Gulf states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Skimming and other operations have resumed in calmer seas off the coast of Louisiana, however.

Although there was no direct hit from Alex, this year's first major Atlantic storm provided a reminder of the urgent need to clean up a disaster surpassed only by Iraqi troops' deliberate release of crude in Kuwait during the 1991 Gulf War.

A major boon to the clean-up effort could come in the form of "A Whale," a giant ship converted by its Taiwanese owners into what they call the world's largest oil skimming vessel.

Owners TMT Shipping Offshore say the ship can suck up to 500,000 barrels (21 million gallons) of oily water a day through its "jaws," a series of vents on the side of the ship.

By comparison, more than 500 smaller vessels in 10 weeks have only managed to collect some 671,428 barrels of oil-water mix between them.

Tests on the "A Whale," which traveled more than half-way around the world from Taiwan to the Gulf, were ongoing and approval for it to start skimming operations could come as early as today.

The US Navy's MZ-3A Airship was expected to reach the Gulf Coast Tuesday to help detect oil, direct skimming vessels and search for wildlife threatened by the thick brown-orange mess.

And officials said disposal units known as Heavy Oil Recovery Devices (HORDs) are "greatly improving" clean-up operations.

Up to 1,000 units were expected to be up and running in the coming weeks, with a focus on sucking up thick-heavy oil that has thwarted traditional skimming methods.

The fractured pipe that connected the BP-leased platform to the well a mile (1600 metres) down on the seafloor has now spewed somewhere between two and four million barrels of oil into the Gulf.

The firm's current containment systems can only capture or flare some 25,000 barrels of oil a day, a number set to double when a third vessel is expected to be in place on Thursday.

It will likely be mid-August at the earliest before the ruptured well is permanently capped by injecting mud and cement with the aid of relief wells.

Quoting IKE:
Looks like TD2 is now west of Brownsville,TX...

Brownsville, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 55 sec ago
Heavy Rain
79 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 22 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 30 mph
Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.8 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 3.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft

I expect Tropical Depression #2 to be deactivated late tonight.

Week 6 and all is quiet on the Eastern Front. Thank goodness.

Quoting AussieStorm:
BP's costs over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill soared overnight above $US3 billion ($3.6 billion), while a giant Taiwanese ship provided hope of revolutionising on-sea skimming operations.

"The cost of the response to date amounts to approximately $US3.12 billion, including the cost of the spill response, containment, relief well drilling, grants to the Gulf states, claims paid, and federal costs," BP said.

The latest estimate is far higher than the $US2.65 billion given by the energy firm one week ago.

BP's share price has collapsed more than 50 per cent since the Deepwater Horizon oil rig it leased sank on April 22, two days after a blast that killed 11 workers.

After intense pressure from President Barack Obama over the worst ever US environmental disaster, BP agreed last month to suspend its shareholder dividend and create a $US20 billion fund for costs arising from the spill.
BP is also selling non-core assets to raise $US10 billion, while international ratings agencies have downgraded the company's credit worthiness.

But yesterday, spokesman Robert Wine discredited a Sunday Times report that the company was turning to rival oil groups and sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the oil-rich Middle East to fend off a possible hostile takeover bid.

"We have no current plans to issue new equity," he told AFP.

Nearly a week after Hurricane Alex swept through the region, bad weather continued to hamper the clean-up, keeping smaller skimming vessels tied up in harbors in the affected Gulf states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Skimming and other operations have resumed in calmer seas off the coast of Louisiana, however.

Although there was no direct hit from Alex, this year's first major Atlantic storm provided a reminder of the urgent need to clean up a disaster surpassed only by Iraqi troops' deliberate release of crude in Kuwait during the 1991 Gulf War.

A major boon to the clean-up effort could come in the form of "A Whale," a giant ship converted by its Taiwanese owners into what they call the world's largest oil skimming vessel.

Owners TMT Shipping Offshore say the ship can suck up to 500,000 barrels (21 million gallons) of oily water a day through its "jaws," a series of vents on the side of the ship.

By comparison, more than 500 smaller vessels in 10 weeks have only managed to collect some 671,428 barrels of oil-water mix between them.

Tests on the "A Whale," which traveled more than half-way around the world from Taiwan to the Gulf, were ongoing and approval for it to start skimming operations could come as early as today.

The US Navy's MZ-3A Airship was expected to reach the Gulf Coast Tuesday to help detect oil, direct skimming vessels and search for wildlife threatened by the thick brown-orange mess.

And officials said disposal units known as Heavy Oil Recovery Devices (HORDs) are "greatly improving" clean-up operations.

Up to 1,000 units were expected to be up and running in the coming weeks, with a focus on sucking up thick-heavy oil that has thwarted traditional skimming methods.

The fractured pipe that connected the BP-leased platform to the well a mile (1600 metres) down on the seafloor has now spewed somewhere between two and four million barrels of oil into the Gulf.

The firm's current containment systems can only capture or flare some 25,000 barrels of oil a day, a number set to double when a third vessel is expected to be in place on Thursday.

It will likely be mid-August at the earliest before the ruptured well is permanently capped by injecting mud and cement with the aid of relief wells.

It's a drop in the bucket to BP, they have money beyond belief.

Quoting MagicSpork:
Hola everybody, long time listener, first time caller...

I tell ya, nothing is more depressing than looking out the window of your office building and seeing nothing but grey in all directions.

Actually, I take that back. The only thing more depressing than that is seeing a perfectly clear sky, knowing that thre are a bunch of drunk teenagers having fun on the beach while you're stuck at work

Awwww....doggonit! The shackels of adult responsibility!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Since the Atlantic basin is basically the warmest place in the world, the MJO won't be leaving for a while. To give you an idea, we likely will only be under downward motion this month for less than a week. For a better explanation contact Levi32's blog.

I totally forgot about his blog usually read it daily amongst a few others.

Quoting Baltimorebird:


Coming from you that is funny JFV

She's not JFV.

Ok....Novice here again!! MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation.. Google again! This is the very think I thrive on!! Thanks again to stormw's blog and key to terms!!!

Quoting ElConando:


I totally forgot about his blog usually read it daily amongst a few others.

Me too. Drak should start doing entries, they sure would be good.

Now time to sit back and watch the birds from Baltimore bicker.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Waters are definitely warm enough for Subtropical, or even Tropical, development over the next 2 days or so. Wind Shear is in the Low/Moderate range, and there is a broad surface low. I give it a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

Agreed.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So who is the real bird from Baltimore?

with the "s". The other is some sort of affliction this place cannot seem to be rid of. Someone so desperate for companionship and attention that they need to pretend to be someone else in order to borrow their acquaintances. Probably never learned the difference between positive and negative attention as a child...hmmm, or hasn't yet learned this as a child.

This is someone that needs to broaden their hobbies or try dating, if at all possible, as they clearly have time on their hands and have no idea what to do with it. And heshe seems to have no sense of right and wrong. I expect that, without some intervention or growing up a tad, that future, more serious infractions will be committed by this person.

One second thought, maybe dating isn't a good idea. We would all be much better off with no offspring, thanks.

Quoting StormChaser81:


It's a drop in the bucket to BP, they have money beyond belief.

yeah i no but I thought i should post it.

New blog everybody!

Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Interestingly enough I just read that Wilma "weakened" as she crossed the state, but in western Broward county (edge of Everglades) she was certainly stronger than a 110-mph storm before she hit the coast.

Don't know the author of the quote, but it sounds right...

Actually, a hurricane will typically begin to decrease in intensity prior to its official landfall (characterized by the center of its eye crossing the coast). As I mentioned previously, an intensifying system like both Andrew and Alex are prime examples of hurricanes that tightened up their eyes due to the frictional effects of land. However, that did not and doesn't translate into a continued intensification of the storm in either its central pressure nor its MSW. Numerous studies have shown that a hurricanes MSW typically decreases by 5-10 % at the land-sea interface.

On the other hand, it is not too uncommon for TC's to begin to reintensify while over land as they approach very warm SST's as they are about to exit a particular coastline. This is what occurred during 1997 with TD Danny as it neared the NC Outer Banks. The same was true for TS Bonnie from 1998-when it intensified back to minimal hurricane intensity while moving over the Outer Banks as well.

The only known example of a TC that I am aware of that actually intensified over land right after it had come ashore was TS Fay in 2008. In that case, the atmospheric environment improved just after it crossed the SW Fl. coastline near Everglades City and was able to take advantage of the marshy wetlands of the Everglades.

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is an equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that is planetary in scale discovered by Roland Madden and Paul Julian. The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes very nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific but reappears over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where thunderstorm activity is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30–60 days. Because of this pattern, The MJO is also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, 30–60 day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.


WOOOO HOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting SunriseSteeda:
Ha, I hear ya. I been a software engineer my entire career and now a college student (again) these past two years, so sitting in one place is the norm. I have to force myself to move.

In the meantime, I have been keeping an eye on the tropics and this blog while here in China (thankful this is not one of the many blocked sites). I worry about my house and property and an active season.

Here they've no idea what a tropical storm or hurricane can do, or even is for the most part. Very strange climate here, too. 106 one day, 78 the next. Thunderstorms with no rain. Heavy rain means 1/2 inch, not a foot like at home. Sand storms more frequent than real storms, and so on.

I get weird looks when I wear my hurricane related t-shirts (Miami Hurricanes jersey, Katrina benefit softball tournament jersey, Wilma benefit tourney jersey). But they can name all the players on the Miami Heat when I wear my 2006 Champions shirt ;)

It's interesting to see what one culture will key to as opposed to another...I'm not surprised that the Chinese are interested in American professional sports though

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The two big cities I know of that were flooded and damaged by Alex were Monterrey and Matamoros. That was one intense storm.Great Pics BTW.

Unfortunately they seem likely to get at least a little more from TD2 (if they aren't already). Unfortunately, this moisture isn't going some place that can use it: Link


On Wednesday, the lake set a new record low, dropping close to 44 feet. It's the last thing that Lake Meredith officials wanted to do, but starting this week or next, they're going to add new wells out at their Roberts County well field.

Lake Meredith General Manager, Kent Satterwhite can't believe what he's seeing. In only a decade Meredith has dropped close to 20 feet setting a new low. It's something he thought would never happen.

Lake Meredith is in the Texas Panhandle, formed from the Canadian River. ISTR reading that the water pumps don't work below 45 feet and they have now had to start adding special pumps since the water is below that level.

Sure gets quiet when everybody's eating lunch!!!!

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Sure gets quiet when everybody's eating lunch!!!!

And there are some serious eating experts on this blog. If we were not allowed to talk weather anymore, food just might be next..:)

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Sure gets quiet when everybody's eating lunch!!!!

We are at the new blog. ;)

Quoting Floodman:


It's been posted numerous times so far this season and doesn't seem to have the intended effect...

Alas, the slap needs to be more vigorous... :-)

How you doin, Flood?

NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI