Tropical wave bringing heavy rain to northern Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave near 18N, 60W is entering the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave on Monday and Tuesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect that this wave will eventually enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of tropical wave entering the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
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Jamaican wave organizing , lesser antilles wave fading!
yep
and wow man! Its been awhile since I have seen you around!
Development, Definitely, When is the big ????, I think sooner rather than later, just my opinion only though
I saw that too, but I think its mid level if anything at all. Or maybe like you said its just how the rain is waxing and waning.??.?
Yep same thing I was thinking anyways we'll see how it plays out, I'm usually wrong anyways :)
Let's just say we will not be seeing code orange at 8:00 p.m.
AS my grandfather always told me, don't holler before you get out of the woods, Nov 30, even early Dec still quite a ways off, of course time flies these days.
Also the wave off Africa, has coolish waters ahead, remember it's coming off at a higher latitude, and not only is there a lot of dry air, but there's some coolish waters there, that wont be conducive for tropical development.
There can be no doubt that the US is capable to do incredible feats - the problem is, when they do it, it is generally for the wrong reasons.
Just think: why did the US go to the moon?
Weather geeks from 69..casting?
On July 19 at 17:21:50 UTC, Apollo 11 passed behind the Moon and fired its service propulsion engine to enter lunar orbit. In the thirty orbits that followed, the crew saw passing views of their landing site in the southern Sea of Tranquility (Mare Tranquillitatis) about 20 kilometers (12 mi) southwest of the crater Sabine D (0.67408N, 23.47297E).
The landing site was selected in part because it had been characterized as relatively flat and smooth by the automated Ranger 8 and Surveyor 5 landers along with the Lunar Orbiter mapping spacecraft and unlikely to present major landing or extra-vehicular activity (EVA) challenges.
even January! "cough 2005 cough" lawlz
Learn something new everyday.
I'd say it's a good possibility. SAL will hardly be a single, limiting factor. SST's warm enough. Adequate moisture field on either side of the wave. Waves have a tendency to react adversely to water after leaving the coast. It'll largely depend on speed and mass of winds moving around the wave axis.
Hey, JLPR. Sounds like you guys may be about to get some heavy precip soon. My concern down that way with that forecasted mess is Haiti. Over 1,000,000 still living out in tents, etc.
caicos is an amazing guy
Yes, at least the NHC says its moving WNW so maybe it'll miss Haiti.
And yes again, lots of rain with some damage to some roads, it's been a wet year so far.
Patrap, Thanks for bringing back memories of what I consider one of the greatest accomplishments in history so far! I really enjoyed it Thanks again!
but it seems hopeless
It worth the Look back sometimes to figure out how to navigate da fut-cha'..
Thanx
My dad worked on the Apollo 11 project at Stennis. BSL, MS. The family made a colauge (probably spelled that wrong) of all the patches he received from the Apollo project.
+1 Right on the button and only accomplished by Uncle Sam , all others failed , Thumbs Up USA.
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