Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The areas north of Cuba were relatively dry for awhile. Bonnie says: welcome to my world.

Models take it to at least a CAT 1



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Landfall Points

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SHIPS shows only 15 knots over 97L. CIMSS has been doing poorly as of late.

Can't you ever say anything nice? LOL

WOW, marching (band :P) for 8 and a half hours in 95 degree temps has worn me out, so besides that I'm mainly sleeping in my free time instead of being here. Where the HECK did that code red come out of lol. Of course the tropics heat up right as I get back to school.

Quoting Patrap:
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 20 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-050

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF HISPANIOLA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 21/1400Z
D. 21.0N 70.0W
E. 21/1700Z TO 21/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 22/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02BBA SURV
C. 21/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0303A CYCLONE
C. 22/0400Z
D. 22.0N 72.0W
E. 22/0500Z TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. A POSSIBLE G-IV
MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Bold is the Gulfstream 2 G-4 High Flyer.

The other Are C-130 HH flights with times on station and wheels up

I don't believe that the flight you bolded is our normal G-IV flight...the type that looks at the environment ahead of the cyclone. Rather..this flight is a surveillance flight of the developing TD to be, but at high altitudes, as opposed to the low-level Hurricane Hunters.
.
.
Of course, I could be wrong. My source is The Weather Channel, who mentioned this particular mission.

according to the dynamic models I am not going to get to run on generator and grill out with my neighbors!!!!!!

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Afternoon Baha,

Steady 15-20 mph from East today.

My bummer for today is that after all our talk about Wx station, I have been troubleshooting mine today.
the digital Barometer is not working, I thought it just needed to be re-set but it won't take initialize... going through tests and spares now. Of course I have my old analog one which I had with me 30 yrs ago in Bahamas and it still works.

CRS

GReat... why is it they only malfunction just when u need them to work??? lol

Hope u can get it back online by tomorrow a.m.

We've been pretty steady at around 15 here today. I'll be interested to see how much the wind has picked up by this time tomorrow...

commet re move

Quoting Patrap:
97L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Check the MSLP box

Okay, I did. Is that a pressure gradient? I'm really not sure what I'm looking at, patrap. Higher pressure area? Help, please?

Quoting Orcasystems:
Models take it to at least a CAT 1



AOI

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Landfall Points

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

yep..

Re: Post #756

Thanks WathchingThisOne, that was EXTREMELY helpful!!!

Quoting Grothar:


Can't you ever say anything nice? LOL

No.


LOL!

The HWRF path above is unlikely. It is too close to the area that gets that kind of path. It's off by at least fifty miles without even starting to discuss it.

I know you guys are glued to 97L at the moment and I understand that but look at the SAL for a moment, confined to some patches in the CATL and to the north of the Cape Verde islands, looks like the blob off the coast has a nice clearing.

Quoting Tazmanian:
Last week was one in which frontal lows are more likely to develop into tropical cyclones than tropical waves. This phenomenon is also more likely to happen in an El Nino year than a year like 2010. Reliable models also did not foresee any development. Putting all these pieces together, my forecast was for no development.

Overall, not to brag, this forecast was executed very well. No tropical waves threatened to develop, and no frontal lows looked promising either. My grade for last week is an A.

You can see last week's at this thread:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108544

Onto this upcoming week....

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Current situation and models

As we look at the current situation, there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. There are, however, a few interesting areas that may be worth watching. The Central and Western Caribbean has a large disturbance that some models are hinting may develop, and the NHC gives a 10% chance of development here over the next 48 hours. There is also a tropical wave near the northern Leeward Islands that some models also want to develop, with the NHC also giving a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours. However, the Euro model, which did a great job on Alex and TD #2, does not hint at development at this time. That said, the next run comes later tonight, and I will not see the run until I wake up tomorrow at the earliest.

Some members here are also talking about a new tropical wave coming off Africa - however, it looks like it is weakening at this time and I do not foresee this system developing, nor do any models

Looking down the road, at the weekend, the Euro model does hint at a strong tropical wave coming off the African coast. That is one thing, but will it develop? Time will tell.

Recent history

Since 1995, there have been five new tropical storms develop:

Cesar in 1996
Franklin in 2005
Gert in 2005
Cristobal in 2008
Dolly in 2008

That's a two-storm drop from last week, which may seem contradictory as we near August. But then, remember that of seven tropical storms for the period of last week, five came from frontal lows. Of this week's new five, only one came from a frontal low: Cristobal. So tropical wave developments actually increase slightly, from two last week to four this week.

Also, all of these five storms that developed were in "home-grown" areas. Franklin and Cristobal came just off the southeast coast, and Gert and Dolly near the Yucatan. Cesar appears to be an outlier, forming in the southeastern Caribbean - in fact, it was the first storm to develop in that area for this upcoming week since Hurricane Anna in 1961.

Only one of these storms, Dolly, became a hurricane this upcoming week (though Cesar became one shortly after this period, but that's for next week) - doing so in the Gulf of Mexico after forming into a tropical storm in the western Caribbean. Dolly then even went on to become a C2! Franklin and Cristobal were close, but couldn't quite pull it off as they headed out to sea, away from the East Coast. And while Gert developed in the Bay of Campeche, a combination of forming from a very disorganized disturbance and having little time to strengthen crippled its chances of getting stronger than 45 mph.

There were also six storms previously intact coming into this week:

Chantal in 1995
Danny in 1997
Danny in 2003
Emily in 2005
Beryl in 2006
Bertha in 2008

Chantal, 2003 Danny, Beryl, and Bertha were already at rather northerly latitudes. Beryl was just developing and would reach 60 mph, but no higher before clipping Nantucket and heading out to sea. The other three storms of these four would get no stronger and weaken before dissipating or becoming extratropical. It should be noted that Danny in 1997 also made landfall in Alabama on the 19th, weakened over land, and then re-strengthened into a tropical storm off the East Coast during this period. Like Beryl, maximum winds reached 60 mph as it neared Nantucket.

Only Emily remained in a tropical latitude the entire time, and re-strengthened from a minimal hurricane into a C3 over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in northern Mexico.

So what does this all tell us?

While tropical waves have a slightly better chance of developing than last week, the chances still aren't that good. If one does form, the best bet is in an area close to home. And if you're looking for a storm to form into a hurricane, the Gulf of Mexico remains as ripe as last week - Gert notwithstanding.

Back to looking ahead

So let's go back to this week. Tropical waves exist in the Caribbean and northern Leeward Islands that some models see development with. These are favorable areas, although the Leeward Islands wave probably will not develop until at least Thursday due to shear, and at this point be likely closer to the Bahamas. The reliable Euro, however, does not see development with either of these two. The wave currently coming off Africa would be expected to fizzle around this time, as would the strong wave the Euro sees coming off around probably Saturday.

The Euro is very reliable, and this week is still a very shaky week for development. However, seeing two waves in these areas near home makes my prediction for this week a bit tougher than last week. All this put together, however, and I think the wave in the Caribbean will be too slow to develop and run into land. I also think the Leeward Islands wave will struggle as shear increases. It may try to make a comeback by Thursday, but it could also have problems with land interaction around that time. The models that try to develop this system include the GFS, the NAM, and their supporting ensembles - not the most reliable ones in the world. I would also like to see what the NOGAPS and UKMET say before predicting this disturbance to develop.

Therefore, I predict no tropical cyclone development this week.

Confidence in this prediction is about 80%.

-Andrew92

Taz, did you write this or did someone on storm2k write it?

Quoting TexasGulf:


I wouldn't cancel. You're far enough North from the projected path. Melbourne may get some wind and tropical rain, some really cool waves on the beach but otherwise you'll be fine.

If your vacation isn't until next weekend, this system (soon to be known as Hurricane Bonnie) will be West of you by then. No worries. Enjoy your trip. Just know that I am sometimes wrong... but even still this shouldn't amount to more than a Cat-1 at worst until it enters the Gulf.

I was also about to suggest, cancellation the day of arrival if it looks like u will be going into a hit. But that presupposes u will not be getting there until Friday or Saturday.

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
according to the dynamic models I am not going to get to run on generator and grill out with my neighbors!!!!!!

not looking like it.....but, hurricane season has just begun...

Quoting weatherwart:


Okay, I did. Is that a pressure gradient? I'm really not sure what I'm looking at, patrap. Higher pressure area? Help, please?

Steering Layer routes are between the isobars

There, is everybody happy now? Absolutely no shear. If I wanted this much nagging, I would....never mind!!!! Someone may be watching.

this is one predicted path , from NOGAPS,is it one to worry about Link

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Taz, did you write this or did someone on storm2k write it?

some one us i was this shearing it

When do the next set of models coem out 8 right?

Post 808:

See Link

Straight copy

Quoting JLPR2:
I know you guys are glued to 97L at the moment and I understand that but look at the SAL for a moment, confined to some patches in the CATL and to the north of the Cape Verde islands, looks like the blob off the coast has a nice clearing.

yes, the SAL out there is definitely waning. The new CV wave in time I believe will have a very decent chance to develop in the coming days.

Any bets on 8 pm TWO? I'd say 60-70%.

Quoting gator23:
When do the next set of models coem out 8 right?

The next pair of models come out at 8PM along with the NHC percentage, latest coordinates, and satellite estimates.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Any bets on 8 pm TWO? I'd say 60-70%.

80%.

Hmm...

Vancouver Island offshore earthquake:



Earthquake in Iran:



Global SSTs:



Warm tongue of water sending anomalies from the Kuroshio Current towards Vancouver Island. 32C+ SSTs in an area off the coast of Iran.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Any bets on 8 pm TWO? I'd say 60-70%.

Those numbers sound about right, I'll agree with those.

Good Evening!

A Large Thunderstorm Now Over Port Au Prince, Haiti Unfortunately..

Quoting Patrap:


Steering Layer routes are between the isobars

I see one isobar. I'm not sure what you mean. It looks like it's oriented SE to NW, but what does that actually mean? I'm new at this stuff. lol

Quoting mcluvincane:
Wow I go take out the trash and boom a td.

You made a touchdown when you were throwing out your garbage? Congratulations...I guess.....

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The next pair of models come out at 8PM along with the NHC percentage, latest coordinates, and satellite estimates.

thank you, so what was that 18z Pat posted

Quoting weatherwart:


I see one isobar. I'm not sure what you mean. It looks like it's oriented SE to NW, but what does that actually mean? I'm new at this stuff. lol

WnW for Now she goes..

Quoting gator23:

thank you, so what was that 18z Pat posted

Yep, Pat posted the 18z dynamical, simple, and intensity runs and forecasts.

Im happy to see that 97l looks to stay weak because we need the rain in south and central florida. Just hoping it can hold together long enough to bring a little rain to us heres here. Looking like S fla might miss out though... we shall see

Quoting Grothar:
There, is everybody happy now? Absolutely no shear. If I wanted this much nagging, I would....never mind!!!! Someone may be watching.

Seem to be two corridors between the Caribbean and Cape Verde for shearing the sheep.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Any bets on 8 pm TWO? I'd say 60-70%.

Stays the same - dry air is chewing away the convection on the west side. It's gonna have a tough time the next 24 hours. I think thats why some of the models are starting to back off a little on future intensity.

WV

am forcasting %80 at the next two

Denis Phillips, the best local TV guy in Tampa kinda downplayed 97L. He is usually pretty aggressive in his outlooks. He thinks that this will be a S. Fl event with a bit of an increase in shower and storms for Tampa early in the weekend. He doesn't expect storm winds in Central FL.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep, Pat posted the 18z dynamical, simple, and intensity runs and forecasts.

ahh and so the 8PM are the 00Z

Quoting Patrap:



WnW for Now she goes..

Thank you. Can you tell because of the bulging out at the top of the isobar? It's actually "pointing WnW?