97L continues to grow more organized; headed for Bahamas and Florida
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic has continued to become more organized today, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday morning. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day, and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which should allow 97L to continue to develop today. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of steadily organizing thunderstorms, with curved bands developing to the north and east of the center. There are no signs of a surface circulation on satellite imagery or on the 10:38am EDT ASCAT pass. Surface observations show only light winds over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but the surface winds at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic have shifted to the west this afternoon, indicating that a surface circulation may be forming just north of that location. Long-range radar loops from San Juan do not show any evidence of a surface circulation. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today was canceled, but is scheduled to fly Wednesday afternoon.
Figure 1. Total precipitation from 97L as predicted by the 12Z (8 am EDT) July 20, 2010 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. The latest suite of model runs from 8am EDT this morning (12Z) foresee a more northerly track for 97L into Central Florida. Several models develop 97L into a tropical storm, with both the GFDL and HWRF models predicting 97L will hit South or Central Florida as a tropical storm on Friday. Most of the models have 97L entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, but the amount of time 97L has over the Gulf may be limited to a day or less if the storm ends up exiting into the Gulf near Tampa Bay. The NOGAPS model predicts a more southerly path across South Florida and into Louisiana.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
One factor potentially aiding development of 97L will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. The primary detriment to development of 97L over the next three days will probably be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. If the center forms close to the coast of the Dominican Republic, the high mountains of Hispaniola may also be a problem for the storm. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 30%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.
"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:
1) Invest 97
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks
Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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around 1-2 AM EDT
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
Landfall Points
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Im half blind... dont have the geek readers on.. I will go hunt them down
I missed this earlier... our ISP here, (xCable & Wireless, now "Lime") being on an island, has always had excellent standby power. The DSL and phones stayed up through Hanna/Ike, when we had mains power failures for several days.
(and at that time the "Cable" provider who sells highspeed internet had NO b/u generator)
Yelp while I get another MtDew and pop some popcorn....
While everyone watches 97L come thru between FL and Cuba
Taco :o)
There is a low, it just isnt closed
you can have the first one without the second
You have to admit... its fun to watch... beats working for a living :)
Looks about 500 Miles to eh, WnW.
Par 4 here on Hole 7.
lol
pat how about a slice of that pie that would go good with the java for sure
fxus62 kkey 201855
afdkey
Area forecast discussion for the Florida Keys
National Weather Service Key West Florida
255 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 20 2010
Discussion...
showers have been isolated from late this morning through this Point
of the afternoon...with the strongest cells favoring the southwestern
extreme of our service area. More recent and even weaker cells have
approached the extreme southeastern portion of the Mainland and the
Upper Keys. Otherwise...plenty of sunshine is across the Florida Keys
and nearshore waters. Temperatures are near 90 along the island
chain...with fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds in place.
Not a significant deviation anticipated in the short term portion of
the forecast thanks to high pressure aligned across North Florida and
lower pressures to our south and into the Caribbean. GOES sounder
imagery and morphed tpw images from CIMSS do show slightly drier air
currently in place from the Keys eastward through The Straits...but a
small uptick in values from Andros Island into the central Bahamas.
With a nocturnal wind surge expected...will keep the slight increase in
probability of precipitation for the second half of tonight in association with this area
passing through. Otherwise...from Wednesday through at least Thursday
morning...drier air will be moving across the region with a minimal
mention of showers/thunderstorms being maintained. It will be either breezy
or windy well into Thursday morning.
Attention then shifts to what is currently a broad tropical wave
near the northern Leeward Islands with showers/thunderstorms extending as
far westward as Hispaniola. Short to medium range model guidance are
not in exact agreement with the evolution of this system over the
next 3 to 5 day...but they are at least more in line than what was
being depicted 24 hours ago. Most if not all are now showing a closed
surface circulation approaching Florida either across the Bahamas
late Thursday...or closer to the Cuban coast while lagging a little
in time. A low confidence forecast exists through late this week
thanks to this system. An upper level low that has been meandering
east of the Bahamas complicates the forecast since it is anticipated
to slide to the west/southwest over the next 36 to 48 hours. At this
point...will go ahead and make some wind adjustments in the grids.
This is more in regards to directional changes than to increasing wind
speeds. Plan to back the winds steadily from late Thursday through
late Friday as the low level circulation is expected to approach
Southeast Florida. At this point...higher wind speeds and possibly
higher rain chances may focus north of the Florida Keys. That is not
to downplay either sensible elements locally. Indeed...will continue
to ramp up the chance probability of precipitation from late Thursday and Thursday night and
have a high chance from Friday through at least Saturday. Airborne
investigation of this system is slated for Wednesday...so expect some
forecast refinement over the next day or so...and of course stay
abreast of the latest issuances. The late periods of the forecast
will have chance probability of precipitation maintained as steering flow is expected to
regain a southeasterly direction.
Marine...
a Small Craft Advisory will be maintained across the Atlantic marine
zones tonight with an exercise caution in the Bay and Gulf waters. A
recent ascat just missed our western waters where there was some
indecision on extending the advisory westward. Will allow later
shifts to see how the surge affects the area later this evening and
overnight.
As with the zones...more uncertainty creeps into the forecast late
this week thanks to the current wave in the northern Leeward Islands.
Expect either advisories or cautionary headlines...or a combination
thereof...for all marine zones surrounding the Keys through Thursday
morning. Once again...stay abreast of the latest forecasts from this
office especially through Wednesday and early Thursday as the wave
gets closer interrogation.
&&
Aviation...
this evening and overnight...a fresh to strong east to east
southeast flow averaging about 15 knots from 100 degrees will
continue this evening and overnight....with a surge in winds expected
again around midnight. Scattered showers will redevelop late tonight
given slight moistening of the boundary layer. Some showers may
contain brief MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visible as well as isolated wind
gusts near 30 knots.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Key West 82 89 82 90 / 30 20 20 20
Marathon 82 89 82 90 / 30 20 20 20
&&
Key watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory in effect for gmz052>054-072>075.
&&
$$
Public/marine.........04
aviation/nowcasts.....Futterman
data collection.......wah/tf
Visit US on the web at www.Weather.Gov/keywest
FORE!
abreast of the latest issuances.
It is not a low. How does ATCF classify it? How did ATCF classify Alex and TD2 before they were designated a TD?
Wayyyy below,
But SWMBO does not threaten to do new and destructive things to my Golf Clubs if I am on here.
Haiti WunderMap®
Save or send this map to someone as you see it now. Link to current view.
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
TONIGHT
EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 5 TO 7
FEET...EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 2 TO 4
FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SEAS
BEYOND THE REEF 5 TO 8 FEET. SEAS HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS
INSIDE THE REEF 2 TO 4 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS ROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF
5 TO 7 FEET. SEAS HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF
2 TO 3 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS CHOPPY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 3 TO 6 FEET. SEAS HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF AROUND 2 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS ROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY
WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE
REEF 3 TO 5 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 1 TO 2 FOOT. NEARSHORE WATERS
A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE
REEF 3 TO 5 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 1 TO 2 FEET. NEARSHORE
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 2
TO 4 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF AROUND 2 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS A
MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE
REEF 2 TO 4 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF AROUND 2 FEET. NEARSHORE
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
$$
Sowwy.
Ill send ya one up dere one day.
well the NHC certainly does
Look at this radar loop from PR The possible LLC center is closing off at 17.6N/68.5W where I stated earlier, It is removed from the heaviest convection and located further SW.
Viewing: 1501 - 1551
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