97L continues to grow more organized; headed for Bahamas and Florida
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic has continued to become more organized today, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday morning. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day, and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which should allow 97L to continue to develop today. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of steadily organizing thunderstorms, with curved bands developing to the north and east of the center. There are no signs of a surface circulation on satellite imagery or on the 10:38am EDT ASCAT pass. Surface observations show only light winds over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but the surface winds at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic have shifted to the west this afternoon, indicating that a surface circulation may be forming just north of that location. Long-range radar loops from San Juan do not show any evidence of a surface circulation. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today was canceled, but is scheduled to fly Wednesday afternoon.
Figure 1. Total precipitation from 97L as predicted by the 12Z (8 am EDT) July 20, 2010 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. The latest suite of model runs from 8am EDT this morning (12Z) foresee a more northerly track for 97L into Central Florida. Several models develop 97L into a tropical storm, with both the GFDL and HWRF models predicting 97L will hit South or Central Florida as a tropical storm on Friday. Most of the models have 97L entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, but the amount of time 97L has over the Gulf may be limited to a day or less if the storm ends up exiting into the Gulf near Tampa Bay. The NOGAPS model predicts a more southerly path across South Florida and into Louisiana.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
One factor potentially aiding development of 97L will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. The primary detriment to development of 97L over the next three days will probably be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. If the center forms close to the coast of the Dominican Republic, the high mountains of Hispaniola may also be a problem for the storm. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 30%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.
"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:
1) Invest 97
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks
Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 — Blog Index
Look at this radar loop from PR The possible LLC center is closing off at 17.6N/68.5W where I stated earlier, It is removed from the heaviest convection and located further SW.
making my head hurt
What you keep glancing over is the most important portion of the paragraph from the NHC
1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...
Could that area your tracking be the eventual LLC, yes. Could it finally form anywhere within the red circle, yes. The correct statement is that is your opinion of where the LLC will finally form.
Itsa gonna slide wnw with the ULL and that ULL is gonna run outta Gas at some point to the west,
Then things will solidify...
Or Not.
DISCUSSION...QUIET AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN
PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTENTINON THEN TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR PUERTO
RICO. NHC IS MONITORING THIS WAVE NEAR FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...THEY INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 48 HR TO 60%. THIS WAVE NEEDS TO BE CLOSELY
WATCHED AS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST
TRACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FL IN THE
FRI-SAT TIME FRAME...WITH FOCUS LOOKING LIKE FRIDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">OUTLOOK. FORECAST DETAILS
WILL BE MORE PINNED DOWN IN THE COMING DAYS (OF COURSE!)...AND ALL
IS DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAVE DEVELOPS. POPS WERE
INCREASED THU NIGHT-SAT ALONG WITH SKY COVER. THE FORECAST FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED. /GREGORIA
MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
BISCAYNE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN LEG OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...THEN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WAVE
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 91 82 91 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 91 84 91 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 83 91 82 91 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 78 96 78 95 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN
REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN
REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF
THE BAHAMAS.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
This storm really isn't moving much IMO
good job with the sarcasm
I guess 99 people having 99 different opinions about something that is not yet classified is a good thing
Thanks
I take it you agree with me to a point lol
Is there enough shear to kill 97L? What are your early thoughts of when we may have a TD on our hands?
Thanks. That 2nd landfall and movement should finish my house off.
The Model run initial point moves with the Envelope Pivot point or the best estimated point of center..of the overall envelope.
As shown in the White Line at the Invest Point.
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 0, 198N, 685W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 12, 206N, 704W, 33, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 24, 216N, 725W, 38, 0, , 34, NEQ, 18, 9, 17, 18,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 36, 227N, 747W, 43, 0, , 34, NEQ, 28, 18, 28, 28,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 48, 240N, 771W, 48, 0, , 34, NEQ, 36, 24, 34, 36,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 60, 252N, 793W, 52, 0, , 34, NEQ, 42, 26, 38, 42,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 60, 252N, 793W, 52, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 15, 0, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 72, 262N, 811W, 51, 0, , 34, NEQ, 43, 26, 39, 43,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 72, 262N, 811W, 51, 0, , 50, NEQ, 30, 16, 0, 30,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 84, 273N, 827W, 50, 0, , 34, NEQ, 44, 29, 40, 44,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 84, 273N, 827W, 50, 0, , 50, NEQ, 31, 17, 2, 31,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 96, 286N, 842W, 53, 0, , 34, NEQ, 46, 41, 44, 46,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 96, 286N, 842W, 53, 0, , 50, NEQ, 35, 35, 10, 35,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 108, 301N, 857W, 58, 0, , 34, NEQ, 48, 56, 49, 48,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 108, 301N, 857W, 58, 0, , 50, NEQ, 39, 39, 19, 39,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 120, 317N, 872W, 65, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
Our first rain squall for today is just now happening.
I wonder how many hours before I see the last of 97L's rain.
Unlikely from what I've read from experts.
It's still disorganized and there is still no LLC and it's still being pummelled by you-know-what.
The only difference is it's about to end.
Anytime..
Or grass grow.
And then suddenly, you've got a lawn.
Downcaster!
The second half was just his opinion.
Storm-Is it just me or do you see this starting to become less organized tonight?
I got 99 problems but an opinion ain't one...
THANKS Stormw. You answered most of my questions in your update.
That is his opinion of intensity, not from the interpolated 12Z NHC forecast.
One cant will a System with Words.
..or we'd all be Floating.
Viewing: 1551 - 1601
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 — Blog Index