97L continues to grow more organized; headed for Bahamas and Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:07 PM GMT on July 20, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic has continued to become more organized today, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday morning. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day, and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which should allow 97L to continue to develop today. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of steadily organizing thunderstorms, with curved bands developing to the north and east of the center. There are no signs of a surface circulation on satellite imagery or on the 10:38am EDT ASCAT pass. Surface observations show only light winds over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but the surface winds at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic have shifted to the west this afternoon, indicating that a surface circulation may be forming just north of that location. Long-range radar loops from San Juan do not show any evidence of a surface circulation. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today was canceled, but is scheduled to fly Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Total precipitation from 97L as predicted by the 12Z (8 am EDT) July 20, 2010 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. The latest suite of model runs from 8am EDT this morning (12Z) foresee a more northerly track for 97L into Central Florida. Several models develop 97L into a tropical storm, with both the GFDL and HWRF models predicting 97L will hit South or Central Florida as a tropical storm on Friday. Most of the models have 97L entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, but the amount of time 97L has over the Gulf may be limited to a day or less if the storm ends up exiting into the Gulf near Tampa Bay. The NOGAPS model predicts a more southerly path across South Florida and into Louisiana.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
One factor potentially aiding development of 97L will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. The primary detriment to development of 97L over the next three days will probably be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. If the center forms close to the coast of the Dominican Republic, the high mountains of Hispaniola may also be a problem for the storm. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 30%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 97
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My prediction...

8PM EDT: NHC gives 97L a 80% chance.
11PM EDT: 97L gets classified as TD #3.

If I'm wrong on both feed me some raw crow.


You sure, I have some sesame ginger sauce?
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Stronger convection developing more so towards the opposed center of circulation with 97L. Still somewhat disorganized as convection weakens some overall.
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THanks Storm W.
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Quoting reedzone:
A screename by the name of "TropicalStormBonnie" sent me a nasty email after I had somewhat argued with some of you on what shift the models took, which was stupid and I apologize. IGNORE HIM, I think I know who he is because he said this is a SFL event ;) and he called me a north-caster when I had never put out a forecast yet.. so please, ignore that screename when it pops out on the forum.


Yeah, I got a bunch of nasty grams...I think you're right about the identity of this individual
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
some people on here are a bit strange today ????
Today?? LOL
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268. kingy
ATTENTION SHAUN TANNER

my internet connection is fine but I am getting a lousy audio on the weather show - is your connection overloaded with online listeners ? Its a shame I really wanted to listen
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Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Strange question, but i was sure I saw 456 on here a second ago, and now i don't see him.?
Was he on this blog earlier?


No. It was an imposter using his avatar
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I just asked about him a little while ago.
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Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Strange question, but i was sure I saw 456 on here a second ago, and now i don't see him.?
Was he on this blog earlier?
i am also curious about that now his name is islandweatherinc and has changed his picture twice !!!!
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Quoting reedzone:
A screename by the name of "TropicalStormBonnie" sent me a nasty email after I had somewhat argued with some of you on what shift the models took, which was stupid and I apologize. IGNORE HIM, I think I know who he is because he said this is a SFL event ;) and he called me a north-caster when I had never put out a forecast yet.. so please, ignore that screename when it pops out on the forum.
its funny you said that i got two emails from same name as well Hmmm
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Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Strange question, but i was sure I saw 456 on here a second ago, and now i don't see him.?
Was he on this blog earlier?


That wasn't 456...imposter
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261. shauntanner (Admin)
Questions for Dr. Masters can be asked here. You can listen to his show here.

http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
Strange question, but i was sure I saw 456 on here a second ago, and now i don't see him.?
Was he on this blog earlier?
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Dr. Masters, do you have any thoughts on the wave that has just moved off of the coast of Africa?
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Quoting reedzone:
A screename by the name of "TropicalStormBonnie" sent me a nasty email after I had somewhat argued with some of you on what shift the models took, which was stupid and I apologize. IGNORE HIM, I think I know who he is because he said this is a SFL event ;) and he called me a north-caster when I had never put out a forecast yet.. so please, ignore that screename when it pops out on the forum.
some people on here are a bit strange today ????
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not anymore.

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 12, 203N, 702W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 24, 212N, 721W, 37, 0, , 34, NEQ, 27, 17, 10, 27,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 36, 222N, 743W, 42, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 24, 24, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 48, 234N, 766W, 47, 0, , 34, NEQ, 45, 32, 32, 45,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 60, 246N, 789W, 51, 0, , 34, NEQ, 52, 35, 37, 52,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 60, 246N, 789W, 51, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 0, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 72, 257N, 809W, 53, 0, , 34, NEQ, 56, 36, 39, 56,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 72, 257N, 809W, 53, 0, , 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 84, 267N, 826W, 51, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 96, 280N, 841W, 52, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 108, 294N, 857W, 57, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 120, 311N, 871W, 65, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,



yea but they take it up to Hurricane later in the track in the gulf of Mexico
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Quoting Baybuddy:


It's...it's...(sniff) beautiful!


LOL
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


They feel it will become a Hurricane alright.. OFCL took it up to 68 knots at Florida landfall. Afternoon storm!
Not anymore.

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 12, 203N, 702W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 24, 212N, 721W, 37, 0, , 34, NEQ, 27, 17, 10, 27,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 36, 222N, 743W, 42, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 24, 24, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 48, 234N, 766W, 47, 0, , 34, NEQ, 45, 32, 32, 45,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 60, 246N, 789W, 51, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 0, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 72, 257N, 809W, 53, 0, , 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 84, 267N, 826W, 51, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 96, 280N, 841W, 52, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 108, 294N, 857W, 57, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 120, 311N, 871W, 65, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Quoting Floodman:


It's a Jolly Roger smoking a cigarette...rampant on a field of green


It's...it's...(sniff) beautiful!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A screename by the name of "TropicalStormBonnie" sent me a nasty email after I had somewhat argued with some of you on what shift the models took, which was stupid and I apologize. IGNORE HIM, I think I know who he is because he said this is a SFL event ;) and he called me a north-caster when I had never put out a forecast yet.. so please, ignore that screename when it pops out on the forum.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


They feel it will become a Hurricane alright.. OFCL took it up to 68 knots at Florida landfall. Afternoon storm!

What model is that ?
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The weather is clearing here in eastern Puerto Rico
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I will pay Jim Cantorie 10K if he will stay at our beach house on Ft Morgan, AL . That would mean the storm would not come anywhere close to us cause of his storm shield :)
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Quoting StormW:


Only if they feel it may become a hurricane, or that hurricane conditions may be possible.


They feel it will become a Hurricane alright.. OFCL took it up to 68 knots at Florida landfall. Afternoon storm!
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Storm W what if 97l misses south florida and goes into gulf,could it become a major hurricane in gulf?
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Quoting MJH:

Tropical Depression South Eastern Bahamas
Florida as a Category 1 hurricane near Hallandale Beach, Florida
Category 3 intensity in Gulf just east of South Florida
Category 4 and 5 Hurricane the next day.
Second Land Fall Category 3 hurricane near Buras-Triumph.
This was the outcome of another hurricane in this area


Yes Hurricane Katrina 2005
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My prediction...

8PM EDT: NHC gives 97L a 80% chance.
11PM EDT: 97L gets classified as TD #3.

If I'm wrong on both feed me some raw crow.
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236. MJH

Tropical Depression South Eastern Bahamas
Florida as a Category 1 hurricane near Hallandale Beach, Florida
Category 3 intensity in Gulf just east of South Florida
Category 4 and 5 Hurricane the next day.
Second Land Fall Category 3 hurricane near Buras-Triumph.
This was the outcome of another hurricane in this area
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Quoting msgambler:
I live in Mobile and am going to go fill up my car first thing in the morning....LOL
I live in mobile to maybe i need to go and buy my batteries and water
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Looks to me to be a organizing tropical disturbance, they might bump it up to 70% on the next TWO. Convection increasing around the coc with less cloud gaps.



Excellent Upper Divergence


Good amount of Lower Convergence


Classical developing tropical depression. Pressures dropping in Puerto Rico with Mayaguez reporting 1011.8 mb. Good amount of 850 mb vort too.


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232. shauntanner (Admin)
Questions for Dr. Jeff Masters' show, the Hurricane Haven, can be posted here.

You can listen to the show here.

http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
Quoting Hurricanes12:
I think MH09 is eager to see a storm, lol.
LOL, not when it's coming my way. I like to see a nice major hurricane that curves out to sea and bothers no one.
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Quoting Baybuddy:
Quoting Floodman:


Awwww...you take all the fun out of it...**sarcasm flag is up**


Ok...

Green Flag = Safe Surf Conditions

Yellow Flag = Use Caution

Purple Flag = Dangerous Marine Life Present

Red Flag = Dangerous Surf Conditions

Double Red Flags = Hurricane

My question... What does the sarcasm flag look like?


It's a Jolly Roger smoking a cigarette...rampant on a field of green
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I think MH09 is eager to see a storm, lol.
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Dr. Masters is on Hurricane Haven. He is talking about 97L.
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