97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4662 - 4612

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94Blog Index

First rain band coming in over my house.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon everyone. I'm currently under a tropical storm warning. Everyone at FPL is on standby mode right at the moment. The structure of TD3 has improved considerably since this morning. Shear looks to have relaxed a lot. Still seems to be fighting dry air some at the moment. I'm thinking this is probably gonna make landfall somewhere in the extreme southern part of the state. Just interested to see what happens from here until landfall as conditions have improved quite a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bonnie is born!!!,give me a second..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
all right its going to be a TD or TS at 11am!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
we are not katrina casters, we are just worried , do u live in new orleans , or even near it , because i do , and if u didnt go through what we went through , u have no right to judge us of our worries on this storm . katrina is a storm that none of us will ever forget . that memory will be with us for a very long time , and with every storm that threatens the gulf , yes it does throw panic into alot of ppl , so just bare with us ok , dont be rude, ty and god bless
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
... To all my lovely experts and want to be experts (your still good), so in youe best opinon is south florida, such as Fort Myers out of the question for seeing any affects from 97L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4656. hydrus
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You are right about that. The local S. FL mets are pretty darned good. Here in Ft. Myers, Robert Van Winkle, Jim Reif and Jim Farrell were all over Charley's course change before TWC or NHC ever gave us any indication it was happening. Since that storm I have a newfound respect for the talents of our local mets.
Good post.. I remember Jim Reif in the 1970,s right after graduating from Penn State. He Worked at WINK for many years. Jim Farrel was at WBBH in the mid 80,s(maybe earlier) I was tracking Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 with him and Mike Potter at T.V.20 in Fort Myers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A not even tropical storm yet has people acting like nutjobs...

Its not an act....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:
This is Accuweather:



That's Jim Kosek and that's his shtick, I think his pretty entertaining, the antidote to the same old boring, monotonous weathemen we too often see. He's did 1 forecast for my area where only his foot was in view for the forecast and he signed off with "For Accuweather.com, I'm Jim Kosek's foot."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
For anyone here in southern Florida I suggest you stay tuned to Local 10 (WPLG) as they literally do have the best meteorologists on T.V here in S. FL. TWC should also be interesting.


You are right about that. The local S. FL mets are pretty darned good. Here in Ft. Myers, Robert Van Winkle, Jim Reif and Jim Farrell were all over Charley's course change before TWC or NHC ever gave us any indication it was happening. Since that storm I have a newfound respect for the talents of our local mets.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
When will this blog be updated? I live on the MS Gulf coast and an watching for information as to whether or not I should be concerned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Masters has a new blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


It's just difference in opinions over TD 3.

Good morning. So where in the FLA pan handle are you? I'm near Destin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
anyone think the cone from the nhc will show south of the fla thru the keys

or north over so fla maimi to wpb place your bets now
I say it will hit land just south of Miami.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
twhcracker patrap gave me this last night
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcfstorm1.html
for those model tracks ATCF models
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't remember if the OFCL track was the one, but whichever model took this storm across the SE coast of Miami-Dade (south of Homestead area) and across the Everglades is likely to end up best verifier. Mind u, the scope for error right now at least runs from N coast Cuba to north PB county line, but I'm sure that'll be much refined after today's flights. At least over the Bahamas u can pretty much fly the storm anyway, since most land masses are so tiny hitting one with a dropsonde would be hard even on purpose....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just an FYI to anyone expecting a MAJOR shift in any model runs.. The BAM models DID have the correct coordinates (21.6N, 74.4W) at the 12Z runs. That being said, there could still be a slight shift as models handle more organized systems better, and the steering level will be a bit deeper and more certain... However, I still wouldn't expect a South Florida landfall.. The ridge is just so strong, and the weakness that has been allowing it to inch northward disappears and the ridge grows stronger as (Future) Bonnie approaches Florida.. It will be forced almost due west as it approaches Florida, and if it doesn't gain latitude now, it will likely sweep through the keys and into the GOM... That's my observation, but time will tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4644. MahFL
Seems a NW motion now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4643. CJ5
Dude, this is what you said less than 12 hours ago. You have no credibility and are useless in a this tropical discussion.

Quoting hurrkat05:
this low will not develop like is aid yesterday it has to many things against...shear is its #1 enemy..so all you people n he gulfcoast can rest easy the most you are going to get out of this is some much needed rain..i said bonnie will not form until at least august 10...this shear and dry air wil rule the tropics for the next 2 weeks..so people no need to get all ecited about something this weekend regardless of what the models say...the models have been out shopping on this one...


Oh, wait..no it is a "short lived" storm. What happened to RIP? Jeez....


Quoting hurrkat05:
dr would you kindly let these guys know we have a short lived tropical storm on our hands because of the 30-40 knots of shear she will be going into...lol people are saying this is going to be a cat 3 lol how is it going to get pass this shear dr...please educate them...plus the dry air pocket over florida another fly in the mix...thanks...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4642. MahFL
Feeder bands starting to form on the NW side, the shear must be realxing a lot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now we wait.

How long will it be before 7000 people post the same post from the NHC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
on the weather channel they said it would reach fla by friday? Is that still true? it doesnt seem to be moving.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4639. whs2012
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Model runs with intensity just updated



Lol funny, looks even further south to me. All this wishcasting is making everyone excited for nothing. It's a tx/la storm...sorry guys in s. Fl., just rain and a little wind for you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
im sure when dr masters comes on her will set all you straigh whats ahead for tropical storm bonnie once she gets close to the keys...then we will have people arguibg with him ...lol well this is a weather blog i think..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4636. aquak9
Quoting Grothar:


Dominos in the park. My friend at a very important place in Miami, said they are scrambling to enter the current data to give an accurate forecast model and intensity. They have do do a number of diffent scenarios to arrive a an accurate forecast when a developing system is this close.


grothar they are starvin' for data it seems. We need recon in there. Hope the pilots are eatin' their wheaties. Gonna be a long weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why do you say that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seems like shear has really let up.

Developing anticyclone:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fox 26 in Houston just says they are watching this closely as they are evacing the rigs and this may head our way
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4632. QMiami
Quoting FLdewey:
Blog is nuts this morning. Next thing you know Oz will be on South Beach stumbling around in his homemade bomb suit... chicks in bikinis rollerblading in the background as he describes the terror.

lmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4631. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
DOCS GOT A NEW BLOG UP
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
hey where do i find the models storm always posts that shows the statistical and the dynamic... i would like to see that since it changed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We are likely to find out in a few days what happens when a tropical cyclone goes over an oil spill. No wishcasting, I AM a central Gulf stater... just looking at the model consensus. There may be a right turn, but I don't think they are going to send it back into Tampa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4628. tea3781
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Shear is moderately-rapidly decreasing over portions of TD3

Just in 12UTC maps.



Maybe thats why its not moving quickly to the WNW...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4627. 7544
anyone think the cone from the nhc will show south of the fla thru the keys

or north over so fla maimi to wpb place your bets now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4626. Grothar
Quoting texascoastres:
That's ok GROTHAR, I have already stocked the lake house just in case too. If one comes here fine, we're ready, if not the we have plenty of food at the lake and don't have to by any when we go there for fun getaways!


Now that is the attitude! Party either way. LOL If people are prepared, they worry less.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Shear is moderately-rapidly decreasing over portions of TD3

Just in 12UTC maps.

And ahead of it too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Hi Guys. Been a lurker here since '04 and have only posted a few times but this is always the place I come to for accurate storm info. I was wondering what the chances are for this thing switching back to yesterday's forecasted path? I am in Tampa and just want to be prepared. TIA :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4623. myway
Quoting rossclick:
my guess..

Its going to come in around within 3 miles either way of Hallendale Beach Blvd as a 50mph tropical storm



So I should cancel my tee time for Saturday @ the Diplomat? Oh well...Saturdays are ok @ the bar too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4622. aquak9
hi gambler yeah you're a loved one too- cause ya use my right name and don't call me Aquak- it's just aqua-
gotta type fast to squeeze in between the posts here-

eeeek for the gulf coast
no eeek for me

i don't think i've EVER seen so many newbies all at once!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4621. FLdewey
Quoting twhcracker:


no kiddin this morning on the way to work on hwy 20 outside report i saw a sign that said "GARAGE SAEL". i promise not to post anymore off topic til after the storm :)


LOL... a little off topic breaks the tension in here. A not even tropical storm yet has people acting like nutjobs... testament to the slow season I guess.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Hey Jeff9641, the CMC, GGS, NGP, GFDL all have 97L/Bonnie with max windspeed of 45 knots.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD3



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Landfall Points

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Jeff9641:
I wouldn't post any model tracks until 2pm or the NHC track at 11am. The models are wrong right now.
Well the 11AM NHC track is mainly based on the 12z runs, I'll be watching the 5PM cone more closely.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
This is why people in FL always watch these storms because these systems close to home can become very unpredictable at times.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


1st step to overcoming an addiction is to admit it!

I too, am a Tropical weather weenie.

so I guess I admit it I'm a weather weenie-casters then....
what is step #2 then...? hmmm. I don't wanna change....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
geeez...ya need a C130 to navigate thru all this.



I was thinking more along the lines of hip waders.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shear is moderately-rapidly decreasing over portions of TD3

Just in 12UTC maps.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wouldn't post any model tracks until 2pm or the NHC track at 11am. The models are wrong right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4481. connie1976 9:10 AM EDT on July 22, 2010
where did all of these people come from all of a sudden? lol



Hey, some of us were up before the sun... lol

and in the blog, too... lol lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 4662 - 4612

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.