97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The doc says 70% chance of Bonnie.
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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
All overexagerrated and not going to happen just like I have been saying all along. I just knew this was going to be a quiet season and so far I hate to say it nobod can dispute me on that.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Let's hope it actually happens. We need rain badly just south of Sebring.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
It ain't over 'till it's over. We still have a long way to go and the most active part of the season is just winding up now.
These islands maybe disrupting the storm somewhat but once it clears the DR, the SST's are more than favorable, the ULL will be cleared out, the drier air will be out of the picture, the Madden-Julian oscillation is there, and the circulation is starting to form so it's not like there isnt enough fuel for this to go BOOM and not poof. Not to mention that both Doc and NOAA have this at a 60/70% chance within 48 hrs.
It may be tomorrow afternoon before any real answers?
Link
Well, it depends on how you use the word "quiet"; we're still slightly above average, so far as that goes...and if this becomes Bonnie and that mess further east (or some other blob) gets a name in the next week, we'll be well above.
Looks like we're going to have to wait a little more. All I know right now regarding this is that it isn't over. It still has time to reorganize. This could be very scary...
I agree, that's what I thought as well. With that quick of a relocation so to speak to the west, it seems to confirm the tracks so far. I keep hearing a few saying the tracks have shifted north, but I don't see that. With the steering patterns that are in place and the ULL over East FL, I don't see how a COC will make landfall in the CONUS (the first time) anywhere farther north than Boca Raton. 95% of the models still take the storm into the GOMEX. Looks like the intensity models and forecast models from yesterday are pretty accurate.
When is that sheer expected to lift? And to which direction? Or does sheer fall apart rather than move?
Are you thinking that the system would come across further south in Florida, maybe across the Glades and then back into the southern GOM?
What appears to have happened last night was that a new center tried to form just north of Puerto Rico, and it fired up for a while, but lost the battle, and therefore has now collapsed.
So now the low pressure is back to being where it originally was trying to get going, north of Hispanola. And while it looks very unhealthy now because of the lack of thunderstorms, this might mean that it will finally be able to become a depression once it flares up again, provided that another low center doesn't try to form again. If that happens again, then we can start downcasting.
And again, I say that until this actually gets a single center with heavy thunderstorms around it, we can't really know how strong it will get. Getting a single center of circulation is a very un-exact process.
only thing we need here
is for you to get
a good kick in the arse
*very scary* lol knock off the bs. it's mid-july, environment is biased to the hostile side, and it's not even a TD yet.
LOL...I never knew it was a game. Back about 5 years ago there was this "blobby" that everyone on this blog tracked all the way from Africa. It was written off, RIP'ed and then suddenly it blew up, crossing Florida. It hit Louisiana on August 29, 2005.
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