97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting DestinJeff:
I also think the real Ike has some magical power to control these storms through the power of suggestion.
I dunno.... at least one of the models has been pointing to such a track all along.... though which one was subject to change.

Geez, it's practically 6:00! I gotta get outta here....

L8r ya'll. Hope I don't have to cope w/ too much rain today....
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Quoting IKE:


And it's getting hit with shear....



Yeah IKE it's still getting hammered by the dry air and shear from the ULL. That probably won't change all the way until it moves through the GOM due to the movement of the ULL. It has a window of opportunity today if it can stay away from N-ern Cuba and consolidate under some of the deep convection but otherwise it's going to struggle further.
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3910. IKE
Ah...this Maxwell House Light coffee....it's good.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting portcharlotte:
The COC will reform to the north IMO


It has a good chance if the current COC just dives into Cuba and pretty much gets extinguished. It has been holding on to its spin for 36 hours...so the landmass will kill it off and then a new surface reflection can be established under some of the convection. But that's speculation right now.
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Quoting IKE:
Look at 21N and 76W on this RGB loop...you'll see the center moving west...Link
I'm still seeing N Central as opposed to NE Cuba. At 75W, it's already N of eastern Cuba, and it looks almost due west of Acklins/Crooked Island, more like 22 than 21. Wish we had regular updated info from Ragged island; looks like it's going to pass very near there.

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3905. IKE
Quoting atmosweather:


Like I said I would not be surprised at all for it to land in NE Cuba...especially with the current COC holding on and not reforming under the convection to the E.


And it's getting hit with shear....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The COC will reform to the north IMO
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On that rgb loop. It looks like the center may be between 76/77 right about 20N. Looks like maybe moving due west with southern portion south of Cuba the north portion inland Cuba?
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Quoting IKE:
I'm not saying it's right, but the latest parallel GFS @ 18 hours..puts it in the extreme northern Caribbean...



Like I said I would not be surprised at all for it to land in NE Cuba...especially with the current COC holding on and not reforming under the convection to the E.
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Good morning! That ULL is still messing with 97L and now we have 98L. Anything coming off the African coast? Why not? It's a party. lol
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3900. IKE
Operational 6Z GFS through 48 hours...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3899. IKE
I'm not saying it's right, but the latest parallel GFS @ 18 hours..puts it in the extreme northern Caribbean...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I kinda see that too. Lol. Of course I'll probably see satellites in my sleep all season. Lol. Wonder if the planes will fly today?


The hurricane hunters are scheduled to go out this afternoon.
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Hmmm... Cuban mets are expecting thunderstorms and rain over the north central and eastern parts of Cuba today.

BTW, the Cubans are giving an extended forecast for the 20 - 25 July, 2110.... LOL



Cuban surface analysis. Looks a little different.... This makes me think more that 97L will hit NW Cuba...
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Quoting atmosweather:


21.5N 75.5W looks to be the COC.


I kinda see that too. Lol. Of course I'll probably see satellites in my sleep all season. Lol. Wonder if the planes will fly today?
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Quoting IKE:
Look at 21N and 76W on this RGB loop...you'll see the center moving west...Link


21.5N 75.5W looks to be the COC.
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Quoting IKE:
Look at 21N and 76W on this RGB loop...you'll see the center moving west...Link


Thats what it looks like.
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Wow. Holguin radar is still down! They don't normally stay down that long in Cuba, and not during hurricane season!

This is Gran Piedra Radar, which is on the southeast coast.



Not much visible so far, it seems. Holguin would have been better. But u can see a few storms between Inagua and Mayaguana, anyway.

Our NAS radar has still not been put back on the internet.... :o(
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3892. IKE
Look at 21N and 76W on this RGB loop...you'll see the center moving west...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
458 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

VALID 12Z MON JUL 26 2010 - 12Z THU JUL 29 2010Link

ALSO EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THERE REMAINS A QUESTION OF TRACK/STRENGTH OF A
TROPICAL FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE SHORT RANGE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS WELL SWWD OF YDAYS
TPC/HPC COORDINATED TRACK... AND AN ADJUSTMENT IN THAT DIRECTION
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
SERN CONUS. THE UPDATED PRELIM FCST MAKES A MEANINGFUL THOUGH NOT
COMPLETE TREND TOWARD THE IDEAS OF LATEST MODEL SOLNS.

Their meaningful trend is to kill it south of TX/LA on day 3. Lol. Way to commit guys. But actually they have been doing the best with 97l throughout. Lol. We in trouble. :)
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3890. IKE
97L...the center of it..looks to be on or very near the NE coast of Cuba near...21.3N and 76W...moving west.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... looks like the ULL is still milking 97L for all it's worth. Look at the curviture of the clouds at the NW edge of 97L.



See the obvious curving AWAY from the centre of 97L? That's really freaky....


That's a great visual image of how the ULL is flattening out the system and preventing organization. It is backing away to the W a little faster today but it will still limit much in the way of quick organization pretty much throughout its life, as it will be moving W-ward through the GOM ahead of 97L.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah. I had to fight getting up at 2 a.m. to check the new TWO.... lol I figured not much would change, and I was right... This more Wward movement with 97L seems hopeful, even if it does mean we get a lot of rain today.

Hey, our official chance of rain is only 30% today and 50% tonight... ya think?? lol


I'd say a pretty good bet. Lol.
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Ike, I'm not seeing the net W or SW motion needed to make that E Cuba landfall possible.... I see potential for a brush along the N Central Cuban coast later today, though.
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Hmmm... looks like the ULL is still milking 97L for all it's worth. Look at the curviture of the clouds at the NW edge of 97L.



See the obvious curving AWAY from the centre of 97L? That's really freaky....
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Morning Baha, Ike. 400 of those 800 comments were probably me being silly. :) Now it's too late to sleep hubby getting up for work in a bit. Ugh! Shouldve gone to bed for all the good it did me to stay up. Lol. Is there a Hurricane Anonymous? Well hope 97l stay week through its passage through your area.
Yeah. I had to fight getting up at 2 a.m. to check the new TWO.... lol I figured not much would change, and I was right... This more Wward movement with 97L seems hopeful, even if it does mean we get a lot of rain today.

Hey, our official chance of rain is only 30% today and 50% tonight... ya think?? lol
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Quoting texwarhawk:
;

Thanks that helps clear alot up


Yeah what happens is that the circulation will try and ventilate itself in the southern quadrant but the air that travels over those mountains will actually sink and therefore dry, which then flows into the system and disrupts it further. Now that it is not directly N of the island, it will have a little easier time of it because much less of that dry air will get sucked in from the S.
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Mexican radar out of I think Veracruz.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Wow. 800 comments in the last 6 hours? LOL

I'm not sure 97L looks any better this a.m. It seems Provo has been getting some good rain and some gusts to the mid-30s, though.

Going to look at 98 in a mo.


Morning Baha, Ike. 400 of those 800 comments were probably me being silly. :) Now it's too late to sleep hubby getting up for work in a bit. Ugh! Shouldve gone to bed for all the good it did me to stay up. Lol. Is there a Hurricane Anonymous? Well hope 97l stay week through its passage through your area.
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Quoting atmosweather:


That's due to it being a little further from the mountains of Hispanola which was disrupting the circulation. It will have a little easier time today organizing.
;

Thanks that helps clear alot up
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Quoting IKE:
Rise and shine....97L looks headed over eastern Cuba this morning.....


Definitely going to move close to the NE coast later today and tonight...I've said it before that I wouldn't be surprised to see it move onshore, the ridge to its N is plenty strong enough.
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Quoting texwarhawk:


I was talking about the outflow to the south all i havent seen anything to the south before everything was sheared away


That's due to it being a little further from the mountains of Hispanola which was disrupting the circulation. It will have a little easier time today organizing.
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3878. IKE
Rise and shine....97L looks headed over eastern Cuba this morning.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Morning all. Wow. 800 comments in the last 6 hours? LOL

I'm not sure 97L looks any better this a.m. It seems Provo has been getting some good rain and some gusts to the mid-30s, though.

Going to look at 98 in a mo.
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Quoting atmosweather:


It's impressive in the NE quadrant because that's the area with the most upper level divergence, away from the ULL. The surface center is still W of the convection and will continue to be until the ULL gets further out of the way.


I was talking about the outflow to the south all i havent seen anything to the south before everything was sheared away
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WOW! I can't imagine what it's gonna be like in late August/early September!
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Quoting xcool:
BED TIME.BYE


Night :)
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Quoting atmosweather:


Yeah I'm not sure what JAX is thinking there...maybe they mean the bulk of the squally weather...which would be technically true since the wetter and windier side of this system is definitely the N-ern side, and will still produce some locally heavy rain and gusty winds to S FL and even central FL.

The good thing about this particular storm is that the synoptic pattern is actually very straightforward and so you don't even really need to watch each model run like a hawk. The deep layered ridge over the SE is not going anywhere in the next 4-5 days so the system cannot go anywhere other than W or WNW.


Yeah. Thats what I thought. But man every local weather thing I read are just completely opposite of what I see on satellite and in the models. A little frustrating but we've managed to make it through 3 hurricanes with noting better. Guess we'll make it again if the need arises.
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3872. xcool
BED TIME.BYE
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Quoting texwarhawk:
Look at the outflow



It's impressive in the NE quadrant because that's the area with the most upper level divergence, away from the ULL. The surface center is still W of the convection and will continue to be until the ULL gets further out of the way.
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Look at the outflow

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Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:
What are the temperatures in the loop current at the moment? Cause it look like 97L might go over it.


SST's are sizzling in the GOM as with the rest of the Atlantic Basin...up to 30 degrees C and there's still over a month left for the water to warm further.
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3868. xcool
LOL
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3867. bakers
two more invests....two more strike outs! hyped up 2010 continues.
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What are the temperatures in the loop current at the moment? Cause it look like 97L might go over it.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ok. Thanks didn't think I'd seen one that north.


Yeah I'm not sure what JAX is thinking there...maybe they mean the bulk of the squally weather...which would be technically true since the wetter and windier side of this system is definitely the N-ern side, and will still produce some locally heavy rain and gusty winds to S FL and even central FL.

The good thing about this particular storm is that the synoptic pattern is actually very straightforward and so you don't even really need to watch each model run like a hawk. The deep layered ridge over the SE is not going anywhere in the next 4-5 days so the system cannot go anywhere other than W or WNW.
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3864. xcool
WNW motion
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Quoting atmosweather:


None of the global models show that scenario, but some of the local models have persisted with a more N-ern track for a couple of days. But even the NAM still shows the system traveling across S FL, and that's the most northern of the reliable models right now.


Ok. Thanks didn't think I'd seen one that north.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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