97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
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Seriously!!!!! Why not Cuba they're right next to this thing
lol
NHC_ATCF
invest_al032010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007221236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
The data for the latest models were posted at 2am, but were collect much earlier, probably before or right as the organization push was occurring.
The next set of updates for 8am will be slightly right, with the possibility of a more right turn at 2pm if intensification continues.
Nope, too much stuff against it. I can bet a raw platter of crow that this will not be another Katrina.
b/c it is moving to the WNW- away from Cuba.
Yeah, when do they get a center fix on it?
New coordinates at 21.6N and 74.4W.
Is Broward County going to see effects?
If I'm reading the TAFB fix right, it gave it a "too weak" at 11:45 UTC. I'm not sure what's going on with the dvorak numbers...looks fairly impressive.
There's a small, but nice anticyclone over it now.. Not screaming out the "K", but with those water temps and good conditions, anything is possible. South Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas needs to closely monitor what this storm does in the next 24-36 hours.
Almost straight NW
Yea. The latest shear from the CIMSS says that it's 10 kts. around TD3/Bonnie.
Shear is favorable for both invests.
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of Wed 21 Jul 2010 15:15:01Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year
Atlantic
98L.INVEST
03L.THREE
East Pacific
NONE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
99W.INVEST
04W.CHANTHU
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Here's why the 2am models are off. 1) The center init position was in error as it's actually NE of that used for that run. 2) They didn't expect it to be a TD/TS so soon, so a stronger system will be inclined to move more pollward (north). The 8am ones aren't the ones to watch so much as tonight when the flight data gets ingested into the models.
really scared because I'm not going to get any work done today and becuase of Bonnie/WU and I might get fired.... lol
Might as well face it I'm addicted to WUve
How fast is the forward motion? Doesn't seem to be moving as fast as the models seem to predict.
Sorry I was looking for the website that link came from. Doesn't show from what I could see on that link.
Back away from the computer.....
Yup.
going to be just a big rain event for all of us in SFL
Looks like the centre is still at the southernmost tip of the convection...
Been a lurker for years but could not hold back any longer! Excellent Blog! StormW your input has taught me so much. Thank you to all.
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