Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical depression forming over the Bahamas

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:29 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

A tropical wave (Invest 97L) over the eastern Bahama Islands has developed a closed circulation at the surface, and has become a tropical depression or tropical storm. Here is the text of the Special Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC at 8:25am EDT today:

Visible satellite images and observations from the Bahamas indicate that the area of low pressure in the southeastern Bahamas has become better organized and a closed circulation has formed. Advisories on a tropical depression or a tropical storm will be initiated at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC today. This advisory will likely include tropical storm watches and warnings for portions of the Bahamas and southern Florida.

Satellite images of 97L show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have slowly increased in intensity and areal coverage this morning. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the west of 97L, over Florida. This dry air is associated with a large upper-level low pressure system that is moving west at about the same speed 97L is. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the upper low is bringing about 20 knots of wind shear to 97L. Surface observations in the Bahamas and several nearby ships have shown top winds in 97L of up to 35 mph, so the storm is close to the 40 mph winds needed to be classified as a tropical storm.

Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image showing dry air (brown colors) associated with the upper-level low over Florida. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west to west-northwest through Saturday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) had the advantage of having data from a flight of the NOAA jet last night, so we have higher confidence than usual in the track of 97L over the next two days. The location of 97L's final landfall along the Gulf of Mexico coast has the usual uncertainties for 3 - 4 days, with the various models calling for landfall somewhere between the upper Texas coast and the Florida Panhandle coast. Given the uncertainties, the move halt operations in the Deepwater Horizon blowout recovery effort are probably wise.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. As long as this low remains in its present location, relative to 97L, it will bring wind shear of about 20 knots and dry air into the storm. This will limit the intensification potential of 97L to no more than about 10 - 20 mph per day. If the upper-level low picks up speed and pulls away from 97L, the storm may be able to intensify at a faster rate. None of the computer models is calling for that to happen, but it is possible. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico at 20%.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and may barely have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

I'll have an update after NHC releases their 11am advisory package.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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501. StormChaser81 2:59 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Thats off look at the spiral bands location on RGB. Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

502. Waltanater 2:59 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: People, if u are going to reference Katrina/Wilma/Rita/Ivan/Andrew/David etc, please give CORRECT information. Katrina was NOT still a depression at 80W.... it was a cat 1 getting ready to hit Miami... I'm still saying that while this storm may have some similarities to the aforementioned storm from 2005 in term of current location, there are some dissimilarities which are likely to lead to differences in track, forward speed, wind strength and even size. Let's observe this one in realtime, not in reminisce-time... Right! I saw that post too and Katrina formed into a depression at 23.3 N and 75.5. It was a Cat1 Hurricane with 75/80 mph winds as it hit land. Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 977

503. raggpr 2:59 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
yeah! TD3 now in nhc! Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 243

504. tropicfreak 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
TD3 is on the map. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

506. FtLaudman 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Tropical depression at 11 am

507. StonedCrab 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
NHC now says TD#3Link Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 270

509. MahFL 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
bah TD.....:( Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2464

510. sebastianflorida 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
TD 3 Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 513

512. Hurricanes101 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
TD 3 on the graphic No Bonnie just yet Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

513. IKE 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
I don't see no update NHC! Makes another pot of coffee There it is.... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

514. Stormchaser2007 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Its up. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294

515. 7544 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
td now no ts yet officail Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6020

516. AussieStorm 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13764

517. Waltanater 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Its up! Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 977

518. MiamiHurricanes09 3:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
000 WTNT33 KNHC 221459 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 75.0W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF NASSAU ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

519. CyclonicVoyage 3:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

520. chrisdscane 3:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
ITS TD NUMBER3 Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 739

521. kuppenskup 3:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Not to brag but when on Tuesday everyone was calling this a Tropical Depression Im the one who said "Dont expect Depression status til Thursday" Anyway this baby is starting to blow up fast! Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 404

522. stillwaiting 3:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
ahhhh nope its td3!!! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

523. StonedCrab 3:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting whs2012: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 221224 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS That's 4 hours old Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 270

524. Ameister12 3:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
00 WTNT33 KNHC 221459 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 75.0W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF NASSAU ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3627

525. dsenecal2009 3:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
what the ... the discussion is from 00 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2009 Member Since: September 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 119

528. tropicfreak 3:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Not good, not good at all. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

529. IKE 3:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

530. AllStar17 3:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
I have a hard time believing it is only going to get to 50 mph. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5145

531. Orcasystems 3:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
AOI AOI AOI AOI Landfall Points TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26105

532. msgambler 3:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Looks like they are going to let the plane make the call. Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

533. RitaEvac 3:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Its placement and track reminds me of ol Rita, TRACK PEOPLE, not intensity Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8949

536. AussieStorm 3:03 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13764

538. Stormchaser2007 3:03 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
They only take it up to 50mph lol Why are those people calling for a major hurricane? Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294

539. markinthedark 3:03 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
wifey just called me hyperventilating breathing into paper bag while watching WSVN gloom and doom people LOL Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 23

540. TXCaneCrasher 3:04 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x: HERE IT IS.. You gave up on this yesterday...said RIP and now here you are all hyped up again. That is cool if you are but please dont start the false forecasting again....have a great day Member Since: July 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183

541. Clearwater1 3:04 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Lets make sure the 11am nhc report is posted a thousand times Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503

542. xcool 3:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
TD IN GOM HMM Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

543. RitaEvac 3:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
BTW, 98L looks better Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8949

544. TampaSpin 3:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

545. 1fromnovasscotia 3:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
hmm,if it stays off land from its position here to a possible landfall in louisanna or there abouts "3 days from now a landfall"?. It would have to move around 20 mph right through, that might be a bit suspicious to me i don't what u guys think on that. Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

546. CybrTeddy 3:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Remember, intensity is hard to predict. It could very well be stronger than 50 mph. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20629

547. 900MB 3:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting AllStar17: I have a hard time believing it is only going to get to 50 mph. Agreed! Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 615

548. bohonkweatherman 3:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Accuweather says it has been a depression for some time now, TD3 should become a storm and possible cat1 hurricane before its final landing in Louisiana or Texas next week? Right now sheer is keeping it from being a stronger storm. Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

550. tropicfreak 3:06 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting RitaEvac: BTW, 98L looks better It certainly does. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

551. LdyAvalon 3:06 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Been lurker here since '04 and have posted a few times. Always come here for accurate information. I'm in Clearwater. Is it safe to say we are not going to see much from this? Looks like there would have to be a major shift. TIA! Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

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