TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Im gonna head to da WUnderland Upstairs.
Later gators and Cajuns.
folks, I am truly sorry if my basic fun fact somehow implied that Louisiana was overreacting to this storm. I will cease to ever speak about Louisiana again.
erring on the side of caution,and being prepared is neccessary!
but a state of emergency for the entire state of Louisana i wonder about so early?
atleast until a reliable forecast is put out.
for a very weak tropical storm 1,000 miles away?
but then again im just a blogger and im not running for office. [laughs]
In reality they should of already been prepared for this
along time ago considering we are already in the middle
of an active hurricanes season.
I just fear the consequences of crying wolf too much i guess.
It may hurt successful chances for future evacuations which
would not be a good thing.
And the people there all live like Bobby Bouchet, momma. Cookin alligator, mmmm.
More to the point, I doubt the lower LA parishes are served by very many freeways. Pat, am I right this is mostly 2 lane roads down there? And what freeways there might be would go into New Orleans anyway (or other large cities). That doesn't make evac any easier.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
Landfall Points
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Saw this firsthand. What a good job (after Katrina). The buses pulled up at the shelter in Shreveport, followed by the semis with the pets on board. We registered everyone's pets and the people went to the shelter net door. We sheltered 1100 animals there. Awesome job!
Thanks man. I try my best, take pride in my forecasting, and genuinely care about others. I don't turn it into an ego booster or competition like others on here.
That is why, IMO, that Bonnie can not be simply written off yet as just a rain event for S. Florida and the northern GOM.
Another system that just didn't have the perfect mix of ingredients in the cauldron.
Remember that rain day you asked for :)
I saw a map earlier today that depicted the ridge as two areas of High pressure, one in the central GOM and one quite a ways off the SE Coast of the U.S. What if there is a weakness between the two and Bonnie could find a way to slip between the two as it looks like it's trying to do with the NW motion we've seen since late this afternoon, food for thought. I'm no met so don't quote me on this, just a thought! I won't lose any sleep in the Panhandle over this one just yet that's for sure!
Good analysis.
Link to the animated version. Direction is the question.....
Link
I noticed the same thing.
I just thought any declarations of states of distress or otherwise at this stage were all oil spill related. Jeepers.
and Canes!!!! Im not a Gator...how dare u...lol
Beside the dynamical clarification, why is it useful to
know the observed relation between skewness and kurtosis
of SST anomalies? First, it is useful as a benchmark
for ocean models. Do ocean models simulate the
correct non-Gaussian SST variability? An accurate representation
of the non-Gaussian tails of SST distributions
(extreme SST events) is crucial in the modeling
and prediction of many important weather and climate
phenomena, such as hurricanes, ENSO, North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO), etc.
dude uve nailed this storm i 1000000% agree
Not even close to that situation. Katrina's vorticity was perfectly round and vertically stacked as well. Upper level conditions were near perfect too. You won't have to worry about that replay.
It's so cute. It can sit over my swimming pool and intensify lol.
I was saying that they DO have roads there another blogger was saying they do not.
There is one road out of Grand Isle and one Road out of Venice. Once you hit the interstate you have your options. But you need to travel those one roads first.
It does look like that high has to backout soon. Or split in half. As to a cold front.... in July, I'll believe it comes this far south when I see it. :)
There are irregular outbursts of deep convection but they seem to be associated with some of the small islands in the Bahamas chain..its like an unstable environment for sure but forcing from land-sea-air interaction is required to set off the deeper CBs..it doesn't seem to have a positive feedback loop set up...yet.
Yeah, I don't see a naked swirl either on the shortwave IR.
I was thinking 60 to 90 mph winds early this afternoon (and, those winds will be TIGHTLY confined to the center of this compact tropical cyclone), yeah it seems reasonable to lower that to 60 to 70 IMO.
Well for tropical development where the upper low or TUTT is ventilating a system instead of shearing it, you usually want the tropical system to be 10-15 degrees of longitude east of the upper low, or 5-10 degrees of longitude west of the upper low. That's a generalization that can vary, but right now Bonnie is 7-8 degrees east of the upper low and that's still too close.
yes, no more watering for you two for a couple days
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