Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut
Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.
Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.
Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.
Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.
Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.
Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.
Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.
I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.
Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.
Reader Comments
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Just to let everyone know......CCHS will be posting blog updates on my site as well now....he will be a very big help to many with his thoughts and updates.
I understand what you're saying but I'm concerned about a center relocation since then and possibly even a reformation under the convective mass.
cchsweatherman 1:38 AM EDT on July 23, 2010
Hurricane Hunters are now encroaching on the convective mass now.
He's actually right I believe. Although Bonnie is small, there should be more of a northerly component to the wind due west of the convection ball if the surface center really was under there. We'll see soon.
That's only 50-60 miles due W of the middle of the ball...there would be a much more N-erly component in those winds if the center was at that latitude.
Brought tears to my eyes. Thanks for that, Tampa, and for what you do.
I agree.
That region needs a Buoy badly....
000
URNT15 KNHC 230542
AF305 0403A BONNIE HDOB 18 20100723
053330 2439N 07826W 8432 01582 0117 +167 +150 074036 037 /// /// 03
053400 2438N 07825W 8430 01585 0116 +166 +156 076031 032 018 001 03
053430 2437N 07824W 8432 01596 0112 +165 //// 082028 029 /// /// 05
053500 2436N 07822W 8431 01588 0114 +165 //// 084028 028 /// /// 05
053530 2435N 07821W 8430 01582 0111 +165 //// 083030 031 /// /// 05
053600 2434N 07820W 8429 01583 0110 +169 +167 081029 029 /// /// 03
053630 2433N 07819W 8433 01568 0110 +170 +166 079029 030 /// /// 03
053700 2432N 07818W 8429 01578 0105 +171 +164 076032 033 /// /// 03
053730 2431N 07817W 8431 01579 0105 +172 +165 074031 032 /// /// 03
053800 2429N 07815W 8432 01569 0095 +174 +165 072028 029 /// /// 03
053830 2428N 07814W 8432 01563 0089 +175 +166 072029 029 /// /// 03
053900 2427N 07813W 8432 01575 0095 +176 +166 072028 028 /// /// 03
053930 2426N 07812W 8431 01577 0098 +179 +169 071028 028 022 005 03
054000 2425N 07811W 8432 01565 0093 +180 +170 070027 027 /// /// 03
054030 2424N 07809W 8432 01570 0087 +182 +167 068027 028 /// /// 03
054100 2423N 07808W 8434 01555 0080 +184 +172 065030 032 /// /// 03
054130 2422N 07807W 8431 01573 0094 +175 //// 067030 031 /// /// 05
054200 2421N 07806W 8429 01577 0096 +178 +174 067030 030 /// /// 03
054230 2420N 07805W 8432 01559 0081 +186 +169 065027 028 074 007 03
054300 2419N 07803W 8432 01570 0078 +186 +171 064028 029 /// /// 03
$$
;
nola
Tampa, could you please check your Facebook wall? I wrote something there that I think you might find particularly interesting. Weather related.
Exactly. Obs and RECON do not support a COC anywhere N of 24 degrees.
now tell me that doesnt look impressive
No they did not.
SFMR is not functioning.
At the surface
Point 2: I don't think they're going to upgrade the intensity of Bonnie at 2 AM 'cause they are still waiting for the recon data at the center.
? lol ik to much jerks here rofl
The dreaded pinhole eye......not really just a hot tower but, i thought i would at least get a chuckle..
sorry for two posting
Those values are suspect.
SFMR looks like its malfunctioning.
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
..... THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO REACH BOONIE AROUND 06Z.
My "Boonie" lies over the ocean??!!
SFMR instrument is broken.
so just to the left?
Waiting for that 2 AM update and then time for bed.
SFMR is malfunctioning, and the quality-control flag "03" was on meaning that SFMR readings are questionable. Use the flight-level winds in the 4th column from the right as a guide while SFMR is down. Those should always be used as a modifier to SFMR readings anyway, which tend to be unreliable a lot of the time.
I dunno if this means that is the position or just what the models think it is. But The HPC doesn't know either.
.TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...
BASED ON THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS THE MODEL PLACES THE
CENTER OF BONNIE ABOUT 40 NM FARTHER S THAN THE TPC/NHC ANALYZED
POSN. THE GFS PMSL MINIMUM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE TPC POSN BUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS A CENTER TO THE S
OF THE OBSERVED LOCATION. THE GFS/UKMET MAINTAIN A BETTER DEFINED
SFC REFLECTION THAN THE NAM FOR MOST OF THE FCST. THRU F48 LATE
LATE SAT THE GFS-TYPE SOLN APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
TPC/NHC TRACK GIVEN BY THE 03Z ADVISORY... ASIDE FROM MINOR TIMING
DIFFS. THE CANADIAN GLBL STRAYS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK BY
F48. CONSULT THE LATEST TPC/NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS FOR
FURTHER INFO ON BONNIE.
South of the convection. Recon will confirm soon.
thats the great debate
Okay, you know with that image, now I really see the center at the surface is just SE of the ball of convection. Based on the sat appearance, looks like a 50 mph wind TS (if it were under that convection ball, I would say something like 60 or 65 mph).
ROFLMAO!
It doesn't :P
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