Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2931 - 2881

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

2928. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
gonna be a real quiet two weeks maybe time for a blog break
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54449
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
First group of ten down next invest will be 90L



yup


and round 2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2926. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup
First group of ten down next invest will be 90L
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54449
Quoting stillwaiting:
taz 99l was tagged yesterday!!



yes ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
nhc got bored yesterday so they named it 99L overland in mexico lol



yup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
taz 99l was tagged yesterday!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thougth this was interesting,compliments of the montgomory research group!!!Cartoon of the marsupial pouch of tropical cyclogenesis associated with African easterly waves. The dashed green contours depict the horizontal wind currents of the easterly wave in the earth-based reference frame in the lower atmosphere, which is usually open with an inverted V pattern. The solid black curves delineate the approximate boundary of the marsupial wave pouch as viewed moving with the easterly wave. The pouch tends to protect the moist air motions inside from the generally hostile environment, such as dry air associated with the Sahara Air Layer (SAL) that flows westward from the African Sahel. Once the “joey” has attained sufficient spin within the pouch they can exist on their own and leave the mother pouch usually moving northward relative to the mother wave. The thick purple line (CL) and black line represent the critical latitude and the trough axis, respectively. The intersection of the critical line and the trough axis pinpoints the center of the pouch, which is the preferred location for tropical cyclogenesis.(Wang, Montgomery and Dunkerton 2009).
The product is based on the marsupial paradigm for tropical cyclogenesis presented in a recent study by Dunkerton, Montgomery and Wang 2008 (EGU's Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, hereafter DMW08). The marsupial paradigm indicates that the critical layer of a tropical easterly wave is important to tropical storm formation because (see the schematic on the right)
Hypothesis 1:
Wave breaking or roll-up of the cyclonic vorticity near the critical surface in the lower troposphere provides a favored region for the aggregation of vorticity seedlings and TC formation;
Hypothesis 2:
The wave critical layer is a region of closed circulation, where air is repeatedly moistened by convection and protected from dry air intrusion;
Hypothesis 3:
The parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave.It has been shown in DMW08 and Wang, Montgomery and Dunkerton (2009, GLR) that genesis tends to occur near the intersection of the critical surface and the trough axis of the precursor parent wave, which is the center of the pouch.
The objective of marsupial tracking is to track the wave pouch (rather than the diabatic vortices inside the pouch), estimate its propagation speed and predict the genesis location, which can be used to provide useful guidance for flight planning during the NOAA hurricane field campaign as part of NOAA/IFEX and the upcoming field experiments NSF-PREDICT and NASA-GRIP in summer of 2010.
USA Today recently published an article on the research being done on the new paradigm of marsupial theory. A copy of the article that appeared in the print version is available for download as a PDF file.
ContactsCopyright/AccessbilityPrivacy PolicyFOIADoD/Navy LinksIntranet AccessContact Webmaster
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like 99L ran out of time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Tim you sure was right when you said school needs to start lol. What i can't understand is why parents no longer have chores for the teens to do anymore.My teenis involved in football workouts, and soccer camp all summer.He helps me with chores at home and his grandmothers spends time with his friends and girlfriend fishes.I just can not understand parents not promoting activities for their youth.Instead they leave them on computers all day.Ike spot on .Right now nothing means nothing.Will it change only God KNOWS .


HUM.........no comment.....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
WHXX01 KWBC 251812
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1812 UTC SUN JUL 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20100725 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100725 1800 100726 0600 100726 1800 100727 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 98.3W 21.7N 99.7W 22.3N 101.2W 22.9N 102.7W
BAMD 21.2N 98.3W 21.2N 99.5W 21.2N 100.6W 21.2N 101.9W
BAMM 21.2N 98.3W 21.6N 99.6W 21.9N 100.8W 22.2N 102.2W
LBAR 21.2N 98.3W 21.4N 99.3W 22.0N 101.0W 22.7N 103.0W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100727 1800 100728 1800 100729 1800 100730 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 104.2W 24.5N 106.8W 25.6N 109.5W 26.6N 111.7W
BAMD 21.5N 103.2W 22.1N 106.0W 23.2N 109.2W 24.3N 112.2W
BAMM 22.8N 103.6W 23.9N 106.2W 25.1N 109.0W 26.1N 111.3W
LBAR 23.6N 105.2W 26.0N 109.4W 29.0N 113.0W 32.4N 114.3W
SHIP 47KTS 57KTS 60KTS 57KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 98.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 97.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 97.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




hi 99L




any one see this we have 99L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KimberlyB:


Mornin' Tampa. So while it has a hard road ahead of it if it want's to become something more, it still bears watching? Or does it just fall under the general rule of anything with convection that enters the GOM during the season bears watching?


NOPE i don't see it as a threat as most of the Convection is enhanced from Divergence caused by the ULL to the NORTH....nothing can build with the ULL there. The storminess should come and go...

I noted this disturbance on Saturday....with this graphic below posted as you can see it is the same one noted......with the follow noted about the AOI in blue that i circled!

The AOI in Blue that i have circled in the SW Caribbean is an area to watch long term. There is strong 850mb Vorticity and good Divergence and Convergence but, there is an ULL just to the North that will bring very High Shear and will not allow this to develop. The AOI should move inland and eventually possibly move to the BOC in time.

The AOI i have in the Eastern Atlantic is very far out. The GFS model did hint at some development but, the other models are not showing this to develop. I'm not sure why as it appears to have a decent spin already. This needs watched as possibly the first true Cape Verde storm of the year could come from this Spin.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WHXX01 KWBC 251812
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1812 UTC SUN JUL 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20100725 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100725 1800 100726 0600 100726 1800 100727 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 98.3W 21.7N 99.7W 22.3N 101.2W 22.9N 102.7W
BAMD 21.2N 98.3W 21.2N 99.5W 21.2N 100.6W 21.2N 101.9W
BAMM 21.2N 98.3W 21.6N 99.6W 21.9N 100.8W 22.2N 102.2W
LBAR 21.2N 98.3W 21.4N 99.3W 22.0N 101.0W 22.7N 103.0W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100727 1800 100728 1800 100729 1800 100730 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 104.2W 24.5N 106.8W 25.6N 109.5W 26.6N 111.7W
BAMD 21.5N 103.2W 22.1N 106.0W 23.2N 109.2W 24.3N 112.2W
BAMM 22.8N 103.6W 23.9N 106.2W 25.1N 109.0W 26.1N 111.3W
LBAR 23.6N 105.2W 26.0N 109.4W 29.0N 113.0W 32.4N 114.3W
SHIP 47KTS 57KTS 60KTS 57KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 98.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 97.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 97.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




hi 99L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

shows 15 kts lol thats not bad also the highest shear is in south tx inland so there is some chance for slow development just like td 2 perhaps
Yeah, that graph that I posted is 96 hours out from now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Go and participate in the poll at my blog about how many named storms will form in August.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2909. Times2
It seems like the ULL's we have seen this year are really controling tropical development. I don't remember them being so dominant in the past.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nola70119:
When it gets ready to ramp up it will ramp up.....anyone who has got the worst of a 'cane is not really looking forward to being in the middle of the cone 48hrs out anyway.


I am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All models are hinting at a fairly strong tropical wave or even a Depression off the coast of Africa in the 130-180 hour time frame.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When it gets ready to ramp up it will ramp up.....anyone who has got the worst of a 'cane is not really looking forward to being in the middle of the cone 48hrs out anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tim you sure was right when you said school needs to start lol. What i can't understand is why parents no longer have chores for the teens to do anymore.My teenis involved in football workouts, and soccer camp all summer.He helps me with chores at home and his grandmothers spends time with his friends and girlfriend fishes.I just can not understand parents not promoting activities for their youth.Instead they leave them on computers all day.Ike spot on .Right now nothing means nothing.Will it change only God KNOWS .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SaintPatrick:
I'm ready for some action in Louisiana. Bonnie dropped a little bit of rain here in Baton Rouge, some parts got 4 inches in their houses.


Is Baton Rouge really in Louisiana?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm leaving for a while. Can't stay in the blog all day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:


It is a little hilly in Southern Portions of the Yucatan but since it is a wave it shouldn't be a great hindrance to it.
True. The more organized it is when it makes it to the GOMEX/BOC the easier it will be for it to develop an area of low pressure. The upper levels might be a little too unfavorable for development according to the GFS though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
25-30mph winds with gusts up to 40mph being reported at Costa Maya, just east of Chetumel all morning today. Wind shifts are being seen in Belize from NE winds to SE as the wave moves in.





I was on vacation there last year... Talum, costa maya, those places still look bad from all of the hurricane hits.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2899. Levi32
Quoting ElConando:


See any possibility of it forming in the gulf?


I don't see it as a particularly significant threat to develop but it's always been a sneaky little devil....could surprise us in the Bay of Campeche once it crosses over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SaintPatrick:
I'm ready for some action in Louisiana. Bonnie dropped a little bit of rain here in Baton Rouge, some parts got 4 inches in their houses.


Amen... Need some action in the central GOM to make things exciting!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Not speaking for Levi, but i don't unless the ULL gets out of the way!!
Yep, the GFS keeps the upper level environment unfavorable until about 96 hours, by that time the wave will probably be inland or very close to landfall.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2895. Patrap
NOLA discussion

Marine...a weak trough remains over the region left by the remnants
of Bonnie. This has led to convection increasing across the coastal
waters this morning and activity should increase through the morning
hours. Te best chance for rain will be today as high pressure start to
build back into the region possibly as early as tomorrow but more so
Wednesday. High pressure will then dominate the region from the second
half of the work week through next weekend. This will lead to much
lower rain chances and very hot conditions over the coastal waters.
As for winds today will also see the strongest winds. Onshore will
persist for another 24 to 36 hours mainly out of the southeast today around
10-15 kts and more srly tomorrow near 10 kts. By Wednesday winds will
start off southeast but by late in the day become more vrb around 5 kts.
After that winds look like they may be more offshore as the surface high
becomes centered just off to the west. /Cab/






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128696
Someone post the low level steering for this disturbance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm ready for some action in Louisiana. Bonnie dropped a little bit of rain here in Baton Rouge, some parts got 4 inches in their houses.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sporteguy03:


I was at my parent's house in Ocala when Frances came by and a tree nearly fell on their house a little nerving to say the least, of course after 2004 folks in Ocala learned that they can be effected by tropical systems.


Ocala is more than
Quoting IKE:


LOL...it'll pick up.....climatology says it will. I was just expecting more, so far....based off what I've read the last few months.



Around here the rain feeds on itself.. But Im in orlando. Seems once we get rain it wont stop coming but when we have little rain its a freaking tropical dessert. Then the fires start. I think this hurricane season it will be simular... once they start coming they wont stop it will be one after another... there is sooooooo much heat out there that the storms will only upwell more hot water.... I think it is very serious situation... U know that in the pan-handle... 04-05 just seemed to never end.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The waves' passage through the Yucatan will be through the non-mountainous area. If it can maintain good vorticity and the inverted V signature it should be watched once in the Gulf of Mexico.



It is a little hilly in Southern Portions of the Yucatan but since it is a wave it shouldn't be a great hindrance to it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep you are correct there Levi.....there is a Low Level spin.....it not well organized but, it is very strong...problem is tho most of the Convection is casued by an ULL to is North causing strong Divergence as this graphic shows as well....It will be very hard for that to come together but, it is late July and things can happen very fast in the Sauni called the GOM



Mornin' Tampa. So while it has a hard road ahead of it if it want's to become something more, it still bears watching? Or does it just fall under the general rule of anything with convection that enters the GOM during the season bears watching?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:


See any possibility of it forming in the gulf?


Graphic on 2884 is kind of interesting?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:


See any possibility of it forming in the gulf?


Not speaking for Levi, but i don't unless the ULL gets out of the way!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2887. Patrap
The Yucatan disturbance is very near where Hurricane Cindy formed July 05.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128696
Quoting claire4385:
That blob coming onshore over the yucatan doesnt have any spin to it, it's just a mass of convection right now.


there is some spin for sure,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


If it was over water all day today we might have been it try to form one, yes.


See any possibility of it forming in the gulf?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2883. Levi32
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

So if it would have been further east, it could have developed a Low?


If it was over water all day today we might have been it try to form one, yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


It does...hence the vorticity max. It's an open wave but a vigorous one with a well-defined inverted-V signature on visible satellite imagery and measured wind shifts at surface stations in central America.



Yep you are correct there Levi.....there is a Low Level spin.....it not well organized but, it is very strong...problem is tho most of the Convection is casued by an ULL to is North causing strong Divergence as this graphic shows as well....It will be very hard for that to come together but, it is late July and things can happen very fast in the Sauni called the GOM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:


I showed that to show just one Tropical expert who worked his tail off to tell the people that this was not just a run of the mill Hurricane.

Wikipedia

Bryan Norcross

Chief Meteorologist where he became known for his coverage of Hurricane Andrew. As Andrew passed just south of Miami in the early morning hours of Monday, August 24, 1992, Norcross's 23-hour marathon broadcast became many viewers' (and radio listeners') only link to the outside world. His television station was fortunate enough to be the station able to broadcast through the entire hurricane event. During the worst part of the storm, some people actually called into the station to ask for life-saving advice. Throughout the entire ordeal, Norcross remained calm, steady, and knowledgeable.
Norcross is one hell of a meteorologist, I remember watching him during Katrina. Too bad he retired.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2931 - 2881

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.