Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

You need to look more at the CMC and FIMZ to see systems

Don't know about FIMZ, but CMC was new and improved last year. See the page on the models on the WU tropical weather link page. It is labeled "last updated in 2007" but actually was last updated in July 2009. The CMC is not supposed to spin 'em up so easily anymore.

799. xcool 6:25 PM CDT on July 24, 2010

Bonnie has a huge eye...

IWRC?

fallinstorms, what are your thoughts on this?

AOI/XX/XL
MARK
12.4N/80.3W

question FIMZ that new model can some one tell me more about this model thanks

tkeith .chances for rain .nothing to major .;)

Storm, you still on??

Quoting StormW:


Welcome, thanks for reading!

Fabulous downcaster eye opener Storm. Keep it up!

With the amount of crow that's going to be eaten at the end of this hurricane season, black birds will be an endangered species.

Quoting bappit:
You need to look more at the CMC and FIMZ to see systems

Don't know about FIMZ, but CMC was new and improved last year. See the page on the models on the WU tropical weather link page. It is labeled "last updated in 2007" but actually was last updated in July 2009. The CMC is not supposed to spin 'em up so easily anymore.

The basis that the CMC did not spin 'em up was based on one year experience with the model. So far this year it seems to be up to it's old tricks, just my opinion.

Quoting ackee:
question FIMZ that new model can some one tell me more about this model thanks

You can read about it on the FIM Model Page

Any idea on the direction of the low pressure?

SW Caribbean starting to look interesting!

Quoting stormpetrol:
SW Caribbean starting to look interesting!

And another one...Bay of Campeche RGB...looks like a mid level swirl...maybe even lower...on this imagery

Link

Hey StormW, I know that La Nina causes a reduction in wind shear. However, Bonnie was killed by wind shear from an ULL. Is there a predictor of the continuation of ULL's that would keep the wind shear at high values?

Quoting stormwatcherCI:

That sure blew up suddenly looking more compact than the disorganized showers earlier, might be our next AOI, not to mention the BOC/GOM, not sure which would qualify.

clwstmchasr 11. ULL.

Quoting stormpetrol:

That sure blew up suddenly looking more compact than the disorganized showers earlier, might be our next AOI, not to mention the BOC/GOM, not sure which would qualify.

I know. I didn't see anything like that there this a.m. but was surprised when I looked at it this evening.

AOI/XX/XL
MARK
12.4N/80.3W

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
12.4N/80.3W

Good evening KOG. Do you think there is any possibility for development there ?

SW carribean looks like upper divergence triggered.... the Boc on the other hand is starting to have clockwise turning at the upper levels as the ULL pulls north. That needs to be watched

Quoting xcool:
tkeith .chances for rain .nothing to major .;)

not one drop in Kenner so far X...

tkeith :( .

Quoting southlouisiana:
CanesfanatUT> I work for XOM - Gustav was a major surprise to the BR complex.

What do you mean stay level?

Yeah Rita was the same surprise for us. And I didnt quite mean "stay level". Maybe I just didnt express myself well. I am surprised that the prices aren't more volatile than they are given how delicate and how easily disrupted the supply chain is...and the precautions needed as a margin of safety at all times but especially during hurricane season. That would have been a better way of saying it. Or as you put it...



CanesfanatUT> I don't think people realize how close this country was to having a significant portion of the population with little to no access to motor fuel.

Exactly! Given the tight supplies, the dangers to and of production, transporting and then refining oil it is either stand amazed or worry yourself sick at the narrow margin between society and huge energy disruptions. It wouldn't take much to start the dominoes toppling.

Well the market definitely moves with a tropical system in the Gulf. It's not a huge move upward in normal years (2008 with 147$ crude isn't normal) if it's a relatively minor system. But given the right path - from Corpus to, say NOLA - and a major system, prices would jump pretty significantly because now you aren't just shutting in production offshore (so crude inventories go down) but you are also shutting down refineries (so mogas and diesel inventories go down). So it's a double whammy to the entire market structure.

Really anything in the Gulf north of Mexico will have a real impact to crude supplies. But a storm would have to make landfall in a pretty clustered part (north TX and Looziana) to really impact any significant amount of refineries. A Mississippi or AL or FL landfall would really only impact Chevron's refinery (unless NO floods again...).

You've mention something that I'm not sure anyone really knows - that's how important it is to evacuate all your employees if you are offshore or right on the coast. Our Beaumont chemical plant was flooded to the tune of 10 to 12 feet during Ike. If we had kept anyone in there - people would have died.

So I know people b*tch about gas prices when companies shut stuff down, but you gotta think of the employees. We don't want anyone "cowboyin' up" and having people injured or dead, do we?
No one really thinks about that side - they just see the price at the pump.


So if you feel yourself starting to get PO'ed in whatever part of the country you are in when prices rise ahead of landfall of a major - think of this dude or me, we are down there trying to get the hell out.
We'll get our plants back up as soon as possible. But if we get flooded - expect it to take a while, sea water and electronics don't mix.

Quoting P451:
X-Bonnie still has some pretty good storms it's going to bring into the coastline.

And the so called remnants of Bonnie Trucking westward and keeping off shore and is ULL disappearing from the scene!

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good evening KOG. Do you think there is any possibility for development there ?

not sure there was a collision of energy there and its firing up good if it can keep the pace and expand we could have somin

last few frames to me show the area in the BOC starts to nudge to the NNE, a low is forming as well

If this system moves back offshore, it needs to be watched

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

8pm TWO is out, 2 yellow circles, both at near 0%

1 for Ex-Bonnie
1 for the low pressure area in the SW BOC

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE. THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE LOW REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Quoting DestinJeff:


the Ghost of 95L?

Without the Frontal attachment..?

Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Well the market definitely moves with a tropical system in the Gulf. It's not a huge move upward in normal years (2008 with 147$ crude isn't normal) if it's a relatively minor system. But given the right path - from Corpus to, say NOLA - and a major system, prices would jump pretty significantly because now you aren't just shutting in production offshore (so crude inventories go down) but you are also shutting down refineries (so mogas and diesel inventories go down). So it's a double whammy to the entire market structure.

Really anything in the Gulf north of Mexico will have a real impact to crude supplies. But a storm would have to make landfall in a pretty clustered part (north TX and Looziana) to really impact any significant amount of refineries. A Mississippi or AL or FL landfall would really only impact Chevron's refinery (unless NO floods again...).

You've mention something that I'm not sure anyone really knows - that's how important it is to evacuate all your employees if you are offshore or right on the coast. Our Beaumont chemical plant was flooded to the tune of 10 to 12 feet during Ike. If we had kept anyone in there - people would have died.

So I know people b*tch about gas prices when companies shut stuff down, but you gotta think of the employees. We don't want anyone "cowboyin' up" and having people injured or dead, do we?
No one really thinks about that side - they just see the price at the pump.


So if you feel yourself starting to get PO'ed in whatever part of the country you are in when prices rise ahead of landfall of a major - think of this dude or me, we are down there trying to get the hell out.
We'll get our plants back up as soon as possible. But if we get flooded - expect it to take a while, sea water and electronics don't mix.

Nice Post, most folks just think that the evil companies are just out to screw the "little guy", while in reality the "litte guy" is working to help them. Media in this country is less than stellar!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not sure there was a collision of energy there and its firing up good if it can keep the pace and expand we could have somin

Thanks. It's just that it seemed to blow up so sudden kinda like 98L.

An area of showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is associated with a broad low pressure area centered along
the coast of Mexico near Tuxpan. Development of this system is not
expected due to its proximity to land. There is a low chance...
near 0 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours.

THE NHC does NOT say the AOI in the BOC is moving inland . Just close to Tuxpan. The satellite presentation on visible is better than Bonnie was at any time. 0% can be 100% in 6 hours. Take it from a person who has been in 15 Storms on the Texas coast.

PLease nothing personal againt the NHC, they do a hell of a job despite the pressures placed on them I imagine, But please no more yellow circles unless they are at least 10%.

Is this thing going to bring any rain to NOLA?