Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bonnie barely alive

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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1853. MiamiHurricanes09 8:37 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting StormW: Oh...understand...well, kinda think we're in the positive with around a 1030-1032 high. For right now, anyway. For now, might not last for long. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1854. rmbjoe1954 8:38 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
StormW What is the average rate of change from a positive NAO to a negative; that is, can this happen overnight or does it 'evolve'? Thank you in advance. Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 726

1855. hydrus 8:39 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting mfaria101: finally some much needed rain on toms river, long string of boomers and free water from the sky, I and my garden thank you Toms River. Theres a name I have not heard in a while. I went there in 1985 to see relatives. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287

1856. mfaria101 8:42 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting hydrus: Toms River. Theres a name I have not heard in a while. I went there in 1985 to see relatives. Its been dry for weeks, all the storms moved north or south of us, I literally just sat with a glass of wine and a cigar through a beautiful little boomer, really welcome Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

1858. blsealevel 8:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
can ya'll tell me what type of formation that is behind the ULL that is entering the GOM on water vapor. Thanks Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

1859. stormlvr 8:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting unf97: So far indeed that is the current pattern with unusually strong High pressure that has been parked over the Southern CONUS for much of July. Sure should this type of pattern continue then the pattern we have currently will definitely keep everyone in the Carribean and GOM on high alert. This pattern though will shift and we will get back into the typical scenario in the Tropical Atlantic where the orientation of the A/B ridge will eventually move cyclones more west-west/northwest. Also, we will begin to see more weaknesses in the western extension of the ridge over the Eastern US and then all bets will be off when this set-up occurs. I agree. The natural progression of the pattern as the seasons change should allow for an increased risk further north along the SE Coast while the risk remains high in the Gulf and Florida with the highest risk for the Northern Caribbean Islands. Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323

1860. Levi32 8:46 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting hurricane23: Tracks of Alex/TD2 and Bonnie were all dictated by the SE ridge that has been firmly in place since early JUL. that pattern is expected to change for AUG/SEP with the ridge more favored over Ohio Valley/ Mid Atlantic....which would protect the East Coast somewhat, but open up the N. Gulf and FL for opportunity. ENSO 3.4 down to -1.25 C in the daily and SOI strongly positive still supports ridge more in the Ohio Valley/ Mid Atlantic. Things should start rolling in around 2 weeks or so. Quoting StormW: ????? Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Huh? It does....but pretty far to the north this year which probably opens up the SE coast. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1861. thewindman 8:46 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Such a dud season they actually have an ON LAND INVEST!!! Wow NOAA is scraping the bottom now hoping for something to salvage their overhyped season Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143

1862. stillwaiting 8:48 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
we need a new blog,this ones starting to smell a bit musty;) Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1863. Levi32 8:49 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Odd....they actually designated the disturbance over Mexico an Invest? Shouldn't that have been done 2 days ago when it was over water? Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1864. OracleDeAtlantis 8:51 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting StormW: This thing just keeps skyrocketing: I love being educated by this brain we have here. He makes me look things up. Southern Oscillation The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niño. This component is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. El Niño episodes are associated with negative values of the SOI, meaning that the pressure at Tahiti is relatively low compared to Darwin. Low atmospheric pressure tends to occur over warm water and high pressure occurs over cold water, in part because deep convection over the warm water acts to transport air. El Niño episodes are defined as sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This results in a decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia. Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 289

1865. hurricane556 8:52 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
huge plume of moisture pushing out all of the dry air as it moves west across the atlantic. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html Member Since: July 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 253

1867. breald 8:52 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: A and C in recent decades/years have been hit. B (The Carolinas)havent recieved a hurricane in a while D High wont allow it and Least risk. Doesn't the high move? I was told it does not stay in one place. Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298

1869. OGal 8:54 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
What a good point Levi. I thought the same thing. A land invest...hummm. Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19170

1871. xcool 8:59 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
lol 99L Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1872. Hurricanes12 8:59 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Why was Invest 99L deemed an Invest if it's already inland and had 0%? Did they anticipate it moving into the BOC or GOM? Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528

1873. xcool 9:00 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
StormW.HEY did YOU read joe-b about mjo.. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1874. xcool 9:02 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
99L .signs active season is come Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1875. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:02 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting thewindman: Such a dud season they actually have an ON LAND INVEST!!! Wow NOAA is scraping the bottom now hoping for something to salvage their overhyped season better than scraping you from the bottom of some hurricane flooded impact zone Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40511

1876. hydrus 9:04 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting mfaria101: Its been dry for weeks, all the storms moved north or south of us, I literally just sat with a glass of wine and a cigar through a beautiful little boomer, really welcome It was getting nasty just as I was leaving. Hurricane Gloria was approaching when caught a flight out of Newark to go to work. Glad you finally got some rain..:) Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287

1877. RickWPB 9:05 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
BP is supposed to be getting back on site today. I noticed something that doesn't look too good on ROV-1 camera. Is this freezing or crystallized oil? Live feed from ROV 1 Member Since: September 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 297

1878. mfaria101 9:07 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting hydrus: It was getting nasty just as I was leaving. Hurricane Gloria was approaching when caught a flight out of Newark to go to work. Funny Gloria was when I became fascinated by hurricanes, I was in the fire dept. then and we were out for about 2 days in the middle of it, between evac. of sea bright and hundreds of wires down it was a real eye opener about emergency response to weather Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

1880. TexasHurricane 9:10 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Do they expect the "land" invest to maybe go back out over the water? Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1881. Hurricanes12 9:12 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Do they expect the "land" invest to maybe go back out over the water? I was reading on how the NHC classifies Invest and even if the Invest wont develop, they do this for other purposes such as research. On visible, it looks like a hefty Invest. Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528

1882. wildheron 9:14 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Invest: A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 70

1883. VAbeachhurricanes 9:14 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport Lat: 37.14 Lon: -76.5 Elev: 43 Last Update on Jul 25, 4:54 pm EDT Fair 104 °F (40 °C) Humidity: 22 % Wind Speed: W 17 G 28 MPH Barometer: 29.80" (1007.4 mb) Dewpoint: 58 °F (14 °C) Heat Index: 104 °F (40 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi thanks god only 22% humidity... Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4801

1884. hydrus 9:16 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting mfaria101: Funny Gloria was when I became fascinated by hurricanes, I was in the fire dept. then and we were out for about 2 days in the middle of it, between evac. of sea bright and hundreds of wires down it was a real eye opener about emergency response to weather My Grandparents lived in Waretown, near Forked River. They were in there 80,s back then and were not doing well. They lived right by Barnegat Bay, with flooded them very bad on several occasions. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287

1885. aquak9 9:21 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting RickWPB: BP is supposed to be getting back on site today. I noticed something that doesn't look too good on ROV-1 camera. Is this freezing or crystallized oil? Live feed from ROV 1 if you are still here, hold on a sec. I'm gonna go look at the other ROV's. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

1888. mfaria101 9:23 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting hydrus: My Grandparents lived in Waretown, near Forked River. They were in there 80,s back then and were not doing well. They lived right by Barnegat Bay, with flooded them very bad on several occasions. right down the street..but very built up now with retirement villages Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

1889. unf97 9:25 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Largest hurricane eyes upon U.S. Atlantic landfalls ever recorded: 1. 1960 (Donna) - 100 mi/87 nmi (Long Island, NY) at Cat 2 2. 2004 (Frances) - 69 mi/60 nmi (Sewall's Point, FL) at Cat 2 3. 2005 (Wilma) - 52 mi/45 nmi (Cape Romano, SW FL) at Cat 3 3. 2005 (Katrina) - 35 mi/30 nmi (Buras, LA) at Cat 3 4. 1989 (Hugo) - 32 mi/28 nmi (Bulls Bay, SC) at Cat 4 5. 1926 (Storm 6) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Coral Gables, FL) at Cat 4 6. 1928 (Storm 4) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Palm Beach Shores, FL) at Cat 4 7. 2004 (Jeanne) - 25 mi/30 nmi (South Hutchinson Island, FL) at Cat 3 Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

1890. bohonkweatherman 9:25 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting breald: Doesn't the high move? I was told it does not stay in one place. I have seen High Pressure Systems sit over Texas during the Summer for a long period of time. Looks like the East Coast is getting our Summer this year? Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1891. MiamiHurricanes09 9:27 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting unf97: Largest hurricane eyes upon U.S. Atlantic landfalls ever recorded: 1. 1960 (Donna) - 100 mi/87 nmi (Long Island, NY) at Cat 2 2. 2004 (Frances) - 69 mi/60 nmi (Sewall's Point, FL) at Cat 2 3. 2005 (Wilma) - 52 mi/45 nmi (Cape Romano, SW FL) at Cat 3 3. 2005 (Katrina) - 35 mi/30 nmi (Buras, LA) at Cat 3 4. 1989 (Hugo) - 32 mi/28 nmi (Bulls Bay, SC) at Cat 4 5. 1926 (Storm 6) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Coral Gables, FL) at Cat 4 6. 1928 (Storm 4) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Palm Beach Shores, FL) at Cat 4 7. 2004 (Jeanne) - 25 mi/30 nmi (South Hutchinson Island, FL) at Cat 3 Here is a radar loop of Frances making landfall in central Florida, you can see how large her eye was. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1892. hydrus 9:28 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting mfaria101: right down the street..but very built up now with retirement villages I heard the whole coast has changed dramatically. In the early 70,s we would go to Ship Bottom, Long Beach Island and Surf City to party and some swimming for us kids. I hope to see it again some day. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287

1893. aquak9 9:28 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
RickWPB- I don't think you're still here, but here's a link to all 12 cams: Link Most of the ships and ROV's left because of Bonnie; I see they are returning to the area. I think maybe that is methane hydrate buildup, but it does not LOOK like methane hydrate buildup. Unfortunately we can not get a full swing-around of the cap right now to see how bad that buildup is. It's happenend before and they used some kinda spray washer to clean it off. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

1894. Patrap 9:28 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
BP CEO Tony Hayward To RESIGN Before Tuesday: BP CEO Tony Hawyard, who's quickly become the public face of the Gulf Oil spill, will be stepping down within days, according to reports in the British press. The move is expected to come in anticipation of the company's announcement of its first-half results on Tuesday. BP will announce that it has made approximately $10 billion this year, even while contending with the largest oil spill in history, the U.K.'s Telegraph reports. Here's Telegraph : The chief executive of BP, Tony Hayward, is finalising the details of his imminent exit from BP this weekend as the oil giant prepares to make an announcement on the chief executive's future possibly within the next 48 hours. After a weekend of detailed negotiations over Mr Hayward's severance package, it now appears almost certain that he will announce his departure ahead of BP's half year results on Tuesday. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403

1895. HurricaneSwirl 9:29 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: Wilma Gigantic eye.. Everglades City, Naples, Belle Glade, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach all got a taste of that eye. Miami, Fort Myers, and Fort Pierce were all very close, so they get honorable mentions :P Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1896. jacechase 9:29 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
look at a long loop of the invest 99l, and it looks like to me like maybe its stationary, and also the main convection seems to be just offshore. Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

1898. unf97 9:30 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Here is a radar loop of Frances making landfall in central Florida, you can see how large her eye is. Yeah, Frances had a huge eye. What a troublemaker Frances was even here in Jax. I had sustained winds of 40mph constantly with wind gusts to near 60mph for a full 24 hours or so and lost power for 4 days due to that storm. Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

1900. earthlydragonfly 9:32 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Evening Friends....... Looks like the CMC, GFS, and the NGP all are pointing to the Cape Verde Storm at 144 hr. Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1649

1901. HurricaneSwirl 9:32 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting unf97: Yeah, Frances had a huge eye. What a troublemaker Frances was even here in Jax. I had wind gusts to near 60mph and lost power for 4 days due to that storm. Lol all the way up here in Macon, GA we had a state of emergency declared because of the flooding she gave us in central GA. I specifically remember we got out of school for a week here. Didn't have anything that bad until Mothers Day Tornado Outbreak 08. I can only imagine the damage Frances caused where it actually landfalled.. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

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