Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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I was in Baytown, Texas on Saturday for NHRA Texas Drag Racing. For those not familiar, Baytown is about 20 miles East of Houston.

There was only a very light breeze from the East, very little cloud cover but mostly clear, sunny and hot. Thank goodness for T.S. Bonnie and the light breeze or it would have been almost stifling hot sitting on those reflective aluminum bleachers that act like a solar mirror (or frying pan).

For the fashion conscious, Mohawks are definitely in style amongst the 6-14 year old crowd. This year, I noticed less lip, nose, eyelid and tongue jewelry, but an increased number of 1/2 finished tattoos. Every tattoo I saw was spelled correctly, which was a nice change from last year.

Anyway, Thank you T.S. Bonnie for saturating the New Orleans area and creating a slight breeze across S.E. Texas. It helped make the NHRA Drags bearable. The weather today is gorgeous too.

Also, I want to say a special thank you to Tropical Storm Alex, without whom I wouldn't have had several nice cucumbers and squash to harvest. The rains brought by Alex were a bonus.
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storm,

what happened in jan 08?
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Quoting StormW:
This thing just keeps skyrocketing:



That is not good right?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3775
SWB .... I dont think SE florida is ever not high risk ... unless you get a longwave trough that sat on the east coast for 6 months ... Really though I dont know anywhere else that is ever at a higher risk than south florida given the geography (This discounts regions outside of the continental US, the islands and portions of mexico (Yucatan) may very well have higher strike chances)
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1825. Patrap
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1824. breald
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Expect to see plenty of NE relocation-casters on this evening :)


Why is that??
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1823. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting StormW:
This thing just keeps skyrocketing:

we are on our way to readings last seen in jan 08 maybe even surpass that
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OOOPS, sorry, meant to say 1999, not 1991... I re-edited the comment, sorry...
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1821. hydrus
Quoting WindynEYW:
i studied georges first hand as it sat on top of us for 18 hours. dont like it when models develop with similar tracks & intensity.
I went through Jeanne for 14 hours. Needless to say I was Exhausted after that one.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Just something i though out there.

What I am seeing at this point is we will likely have a lot of southern cruisers which will travel west or west-northwest in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will breakdown at times (like every year), but I find it more unlikely than normal that we will have systems that will hit the east coast or travel up the coast. This is because the Bermuda high is stronger this year and is extending further west to the Eastern United States


So your saying South east florida not at high risk.
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting unf97:


So basically hurricane23 is theorizing that storms for the most part this season will be steered much further south through the Carribean and into the GOM similar to what we are seeing now.

Yep.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Weather456:


But those EURO maps are depicting low level and surface lows.


we'll see in a week or so,but i doubt we'll be seeing homegrown development next tc should be advecting northerly somewhere in the carib or out near the antellies...
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1817. unf97
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh I see what you mean.


So basically hurricane23 is theorizing that storms for the most part this season will be steered much farther south through the Carribean and into the GOM similar to what we are seeing now.

Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1816. Patrap
Kentucky Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides

Declared July 23, 2010



News
Map of Declared Counties for Disaster 1925

* Federal Aid Programs For Kentucky Disaster Recovery, Jul 23 New
* President Declares Major Disaster For Commonwealth Of Kentucky, Jul 23 New
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Storm,
what is that last map u posted about?
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Quoting StormW:
This thing just keeps skyrocketing:

We haven't been negative since the start of April.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting hurricane23:


Just something i though out there.

What I am seeing at this point is we will likely have a lot of southern cruisers which will travel west or west-northwest in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will breakdown at times (like every year), but I find it more unlikely than normal that we will have systems that will hit the east coast or travel up the coast. This is because the Bermuda high is stronger this year and is extending further west to the Eastern United States


Adrian, 1999 is a prime example of what the pattern could be like for the next few months. Only problem with then and now, I believe SST were around 50-60 near Long Island, which is why Floyd never re-strengthened into a Hurricane after crossing back into the Atlantic after hitting the Carolinas. Although we were under a Hurricane Warning when I was living there. This year, SST are 80 or above as far north as NJ. This shows me that if we get a Gloria or Floyd like storm, it won't turn Extratropical as fast as they normally do, unless shear has a way to get in it.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Just something i though out there.

What I am seeing at this point is we will likely have a lot of southern cruisers which will travel west or west-northwest in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will breakdown at times (like every year), but I find it more unlikely than normal that we will have systems that will hit the east coast or travel up the coast. This is because the Bermuda high is stronger this year and is extending further west to the Eastern United States
Oh I see what you mean.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting hydrus:
Sorry W.N. It was for study, not to scare anyone...:)
i studied georges first hand as it sat on top of us for 18 hours. dont like it when models develop with similar tracks & intensity.
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why would they have made this area an invest, if they didnt think it could move over water?

I dont get it
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
1808. hydrus
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

AHH!The track of terror! GET IT AWAY!! AWAY!!!
Sorry W.N. It was for study, not to scare anyone...:)
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1807. unf97
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Huh?


Yeah I overlooked that part of the post at first. Don't know the poster's reasoning there as well. The Azores/Bermuda ridge will be the main feature to steer storms when it becomes more established in a couple of weeks.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting stillwaiting:
in other words:most of what your seeing is axis of tutt lows on those maps imo...


But those EURO maps are depicting low level and surface lows.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Huh?


Just something i though out there.

What I am seeing at this point is we will likely have a lot of southern cruisers which will travel west or west-northwest in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will breakdown at times (like every year), but I find it more unlikely than normal that we will have systems that will hit the east coast or travel up the coast. This is because the Bermuda high is stronger this year and is extending further west to the Eastern United States
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TORNADO WARNING
NYC103-252015-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0007.100725T1940Z-100725T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

* AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BAY
SHORE...OR NEAR BABYLON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CAPTREE STATE PARK...ROBERT MOSES STATE PARK...ISLIP...
RONKONKOMA...SAYVILLE...HOLBROOK...PATCHOGUE...DAVIS PARK AND
MASTIC BEACH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

&&

LAT...LON 4064 7335 4067 7326 4065 7320 4067 7306
4074 7288 4076 7291 4074 7293 4075 7301
4073 7303 4073 7313 4070 7314 4071 7323
4069 7326 4066 7341 4083 7338 4078 7280
4077 7279 4078 7271 4068 7299 4063 7318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 278DEG 42KT 4072 7327

$$

MALOIT

I used to live in Mastic Beach.. I hope my friends and family are indoors right now..
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in other words:most of what your seeing is axis of tutt lows on those maps imo...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The "home-grown mischief" Levi continues to speak about appears pretty well on the run.

144 hours- 1011mb low in the GOMEX and 1009mb low by Bermuda.


72 hours- weak low by Bermuda.


It shows many more before by the end of the run.



more than likely those will be ULL's,in simular area's/positon's as they've been the last 3-4 weeks...
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Quoting hurricane23:
Tracks of Alex/TD2 and Bonnie were all dictated by the SE ridge that has been firmly in place since early JUL. that pattern is expected to change for AUG/SEP with the ridge more favored over Ohio Valley/ Mid Atlantic....which would protect the East Coast somewhat, but open up the N. Gulf and FL for opportunity. ENSO 3.4 down to -1.25 C in the daily and SOI strongly positive still supports ridge more in the Ohio Valley/ Mid Atlantic. Things should start rolling in around 2 weeks or so.
Huh?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1799. unf97
Quoting hurricane23:
Tracks of Alex/TD2 and Bonnie were all dictated by the SE ridge that has been firmly in place since early JUL. that pattern is expected to change for AUG/SEP with the ridge more favored over Ohio Valley/ Mid Atlantic....which would protect the East Coast somewhat, but open up the N. Gulf and FL for opportunity. ENSO 3.4 down to -1.25 C in the daily and SOI strongly positive still supports ridge more in the Ohio Valley/ Mid Atlantic. Things should start rolling in around 2 weeks or so.


Yes a set-up like you mentioned here will definitely place Florida and the Gulf Coast more at rsik for the threat of tropical cyclones. The pattern will turn in August but look for the A/B ridge to be predominant feature to steer storms.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1797. Patrap
538
fxus64 klix 251943
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
243 PM CDT sun Jul 25 2010


Short term...


Remnants of Bonnie continue to slide west-northwest...currently centered
in the vicinity of Baton Rouge with the surface low becoming
elongated. Low-level stratocu beginning to thicken across the
region as diurnal surface mixing commences. Convection beginning
to develop across Plaquemines Parish...associated with a weak
rain band...may serve as a focus for increased convection across
southeast Louisiana later this afternoon.


The next several days will be characterized by an upper-level
ridge building westward across the region...forcing the remains of
Bonnie into West Texas by mid-week. This will lead to a gradual
warming trend with decreasing afternoon shower and thunderstorm
coverage each day.


Morning lows will remain in the middle to upper 70s...while afternoon
highs gradually drift toward the middle 90s by mid-week.


92/mm
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Tracks of Alex/TD2 and Bonnie were all dictated by the SE ridge that has been firmly in place since early JUL. that pattern is expected to change for AUG/SEP with the ridge more favored over Ohio Valley/ Mid Atlantic....which would protect the East Coast somewhat, but open up the N. Gulf and FL for opportunity. ENSO 3.4 down to -1.25 C in the daily and SOI strongly positive still supports ridge more in the Ohio Valley/ Mid Atlantic. Things should start rolling in around 2 weeks or so.
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1795. Patrap
Well that makes alotta sense.


A Waste like in,it didnt become a Major to Highlight your skills?

Pffth.

What is gonna come next from some...?


Amazing
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1794. unf97
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I think I know why they declared 99L a invest, its producing a heavy amount of rain and the NHC wanted to see where the models would take it over Mexico and get the message out there on possible flooding.


That is probably a significant part of NHC's reasoning to declare it an invest. But I will say it was a good thing 99L hugged the coast and eventually moved just enough inland for now or else this system I think potentially really could have spun up into a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane in the BOC.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
I'm kind of disappointed that we had to waste such a circulation to land...this could of easily been TD 4, had it more time over water.

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Expect to see plenty of NE relocation-casters on this evening :)
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:


Ha... You got me there!

99L still is ridiculous, as is SHIPS.


;-)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
How are the thunderstorms nyhurricaneboy?


We've been getting strong winds... I'd say gusts around 40-50; maybe a bit higher. Nothing much else...
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1788. Patrap
.."caught in a Bad Invest"..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


You fail to understand the criteria for an invest..

Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.


Ha... You got me there!

99L still is ridiculous, as is SHIPS.
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Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
99L is about the poorest excuse of an invest I've ever seen. Mainly because it's over land! If it were out in the ocean, it might just stand a chance. Whatever genius designated a system that had already made landfall a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone should be ashamed of himself. This is a major disappointment.

Also, plus points for that intensity forecast. Words can't even describe that.


You fail to understand the criteria for an invest..

Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
Quoting StormW:
Or maybe they're doing it to mess with us on here LOL!
Funny they didn't put a red circle over the storms that dumped 7 inches of rain on Milwaukee and chicago with Tropical force winds night before last lol
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99L is about the poorest excuse of an invest I've ever seen. Mainly because it's over land! If it were out in the ocean, it might just stand a chance. Whatever genius designated a system that had already made landfall a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone should be ashamed of himself. This is a major disappointment.

Also, plus points for that intensity forecast. Words can't even describe that.
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Quoting Weather456:
99L Invest...hmmm



Unless 99L has a COC relocation over water I'm not sure why the NHC even bothered to declare it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.