Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bonnie barely alive

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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1901. HurricaneSwirl 9:32 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting unf97: Yeah, Frances had a huge eye. What a troublemaker Frances was even here in Jax. I had wind gusts to near 60mph and lost power for 4 days due to that storm. Lol all the way up here in Macon, GA we had a state of emergency declared because of the flooding she gave us in central GA. I specifically remember we got out of school for a week here. Didn't have anything that bad until Mothers Day Tornado Outbreak 08. I can only imagine the damage Frances caused where it actually landfalled.. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1902. victoria780 9:32 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting ackee: which area of the US do u think will be most at risk this seasons ? A SE COAST B EAST COAST C GULF State D NE COAST Texas has had 2-tropical systems this year which put our annual rain rate above 7-inches for the year.Anything else this year can go elsewhere.Thank You Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270

1903. RickWPB 9:33 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting unf97: Largest hurricane eyes upon U.S. Atlantic landfalls ever recorded: 1. 1960 (Donna) - 100 mi/87 nmi (Long Island, NY) at Cat 2 2. 2004 (Frances) - 69 mi/60 nmi (Sewall's Point, FL) at Cat 2 3. 2005 (Wilma) - 52 mi/45 nmi (Cape Romano, SW FL) at Cat 3 3. 2005 (Katrina) - 35 mi/30 nmi (Buras, LA) at Cat 3 4. 1989 (Hugo) - 32 mi/28 nmi (Bulls Bay, SC) at Cat 4 5. 1926 (Storm 6) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Coral Gables, FL) at Cat 4 6. 1928 (Storm 4) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Palm Beach Shores, FL) at Cat 4 7. 2004 (Jeanne) - 25 mi/30 nmi (South Hutchinson Island, FL) at Cat 3 I forgot about Donna having over a 100 nmi eye when it hit NY. From the video posted above of Wilma in 2005 (by sammywammybamy), as soon as Wilma exited the coast the eye grew even bigger! I never knew that as I was pretty busy for the next week or so living here in West Palm Beach. Wilma was the worst I experienced since living here in West Palm Beach (1959). Member Since: September 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 299

1905. CybrTeddy 9:34 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: better than scraping you from the bottom of some hurricane flooded impact zone KOTG ignore him.. thewindman's not our brightest poster, probably one of the least imo. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

1906. GeoffreyWPB 9:35 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Odd....they actually designated the disturbance over Mexico an Invest? Shouldn't that have been done 2 days ago when it was over water? Bastardi will probally have a field day with this. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9246

1908. Levi32 9:36 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: Bastardi will probally have a field day with this. Nah lol. I don't think he'll mention it. Invests can be designated whenever so it's not a criteria thing....just odd, that's all. What's the point of running models on it. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25602

1909. rmbjoe1954 9:37 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
StormW, thanks so much for the table showing average NAO. Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 754

1910. aquak9 9:37 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
helloOOOooo! RickWPB, I did answer you... geeez am I on everyone's iggy? Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

1912. rmbjoe1954 9:38 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting weatherman12345: POLL TIME!! which state will have the most tropical cyclones this year? A. LOUISIANA B. TEXAS C. FLORIDA D. N. CAROLINA C. Florida, of course LOL Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 754

1913. GeoffreyWPB 9:38 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Hurricane Donna: Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9246

1914. unf97 9:38 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting aquak9: helloOOOooo! RickWPB, I did answer you... geeez am I on everyone's iggy? Good afternoon aquak. Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

1915. RickWPB 9:39 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting aquak9: RickWPB- I don't think you're still here, but here's a link to all 12 cams: Link Most of the ships and ROV's left because of Bonnie; I see they are returning to the area. I think maybe that is methane hydrate buildup, but it does not LOOK like methane hydrate buildup. Unfortunately we can not get a full swing-around of the cap right now to see how bad that buildup is. It's happened before and they used some kinda spray washer to clean it off. Yes, I'm still here - and thanx. I have that link of for all cameras, but for some reason my browser (Mozilla FF - just updated yesterday to 3.6.8) crashes when going there. If I go there, and quickly click 'stop', I can view a few of the cameras. Hopefully this buildup is not going to be another setback... especially when we're FINALLY seeing a possible end in sight. Member Since: September 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 299

1916. Hurricanes101 9:39 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Nah lol. I don't think he'll mention it. Invests can be designated whenever so it's not a criteria thing....just odd, that's all. What's the point of running models on it. yea I am not sure why they designated this an invest, maybe they were bored lol Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

1917. MiamiHurricanes09 9:40 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: yea I am not sure why they designated this an invest, maybe they were bored lol I agree, lol. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1918. aquak9 9:40 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
well hiya unf. Trying to load Levi's video right now. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

1919. aquak9 9:42 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Rick- Thanks for the response. May I direct you to BeachFoxx's blog- she has been running it since the DamnRig caught on fire. She has many good links in her header. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

1920. SavannahStorm 9:42 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Here's Hugo. Check out Lake Okeechobee for eye size reference. Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2140

1921. rmbjoe1954 9:43 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
E Quoting victoria780: Texas has had 2-tropical systems this year which put our annual rain rate above 7-inches for the year.Anything else this year can go elsewhere.Thank You E. All the above. Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 754

1922. watchingnva 9:43 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport Lat: 37.14 Lon: -76.5 Elev: 43 Last Update on Jul 25, 4:54 pm EDT Fair 104 °F (40 °C) Humidity: 22 % Wind Speed: W 17 G 28 MPH Barometer: 29.80" (1007.4 mb) Dewpoint: 58 °F (14 °C) Heat Index: 104 °F (40 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi thanks god only 22% humidity... Why is that dewpoint showing 58?...our dewpoints up near Richmond have been 66-70 the last few days...got to 106.7 here yesterday...and up 105.8 today ...everyone has been hiding inside...lol...heat index has fluctuated between 106-115 during the afternoons...miserable... Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

1923. SavannahStorm 9:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Statement as of 5:18 PM EDT on July 25, 2010 ... Prolonged heat continues across the coastal Empire and the low country... The following are unofficial maximum heat index values through 515 PM EDT as observed by automated surface observation systems /ASOS/... fire weather remote automated weather stations /RAWS/ and National Weather Service supported observation sensors from across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia. ... Southeast South Carolina... Bluffton... ... ... ... ... ... Beaufort County... . 117 Smoaks... ... ... ... ... ... ..Colleton County... . 117 Beaufort mcas /knbc/... ... Beaufort County... . 116 west Ashley... ... ... ... ... Charleston County.. 116 Goose Creek... ... ... ... ... Berkeley County... . 114 Hilton Head /khxd/... ... ..Beaufort County... . 114 Summerville /kdyb/... ... ..Dorchester County.. 113 Walterboro /krbw/... ... ... Colleton County... . 113 Moncks Corner /kmks/... ... Berkeley County... . 110 North Charleston /kchs/... Charleston County.. 109 ... Southeast Georgia... hunter aaf... ... ... ... ... .Chatham County... .. 118 Coffee Bluff... ... ... ... ..Chatham County... .. 117 Metter... ... ... ... ... ... ..Candler County... .. 115 midway... ... ... ... ... ... ..Liberty County... .. 114 Elim... ... ... ... ... ... ... .Long County... ... .. 114 Sapelo Island... ... ... ... .McIntosh County... . 111 Sylvania /Fire Dept/... ... Screven County... .. 111 Fort Stewart /klhw/... ... .Liberty County... .. 108 Statesboro /ktbr/... ... ... Bulloch County... .. 108 Savannah Airport... ... ... .Chatham County... .. 107 The station in bold is closest to me... Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2140

1924. GeoffreyWPB 9:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting weatherman12345: POLL TIME!! which state will have the most tropical cyclones this year? A. LOUISIANA B. TEXAS C. FLORIDA D. N. CAROLINA E. The state of Confusion. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9246

1925. SavannahStorm 9:47 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Actually, this is even worse: Savannah Hunter, Georgia (Airport) Updated: 51 min 37 sec ago Scattered Clouds 99 �F Scattered Clouds Humidity: 60% Dew Point: 82 �F Wind: 14 mph from the SSW Pressure: 30.01 in (Falling) Heat Index: 125 �F !!! Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2140

1927. ElConando 9:48 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Nah lol. I don't think he'll mention it. Invests can be designated whenever so it's not a criteria thing....just odd, that's all. What's the point of running models on it. Something tells me he will lol I dunno I just feel it. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

1928. HurricaneSwirl 9:48 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: Power was out for 12 days. Made a Campfire in my Back Yard. It was like camping except in your house. No AC, No Power. After 2005 my family bought a generator.. And its been sitting in my garage for 5 years. Yeah a lot of people did that after 2005 lol. People hit by Rita, Katrina, Wilma, and Dennis immediately bought generators but haven't really used them yet. Exception would be Ike landfalled pretty close to where Rita did. Gustav landfalled like right in the middle of Katrina and Rita, not sure if it was big enough to cause Rita hit people or Katrina hit people to lose power. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1929. spathy 9:49 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting aquak9: helloOOOooo! RickWPB, I did answer you... geeez am I on everyone's iggy? You arent on my iggy! But my #1735 was:0) Thankfully so. Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10529

1930. 10Speed 9:49 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: Fay took a Very Similar track in 2008. South Florida Hasent Seen a Major in 5 years.. I belive we will get one soon. I don't tend to go by time frames. Florida can and has gone many, many years without anything major before. Just because we haven't had a major in 5 years it doesn't mean we're due. It could be 15 or more. I do concede that we're in a period where the possibility is enhanced though. Member Since: June 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 112

1931. rmbjoe1954 9:49 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: E. The state of Confusion. Or E. All the above Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 754

1932. ElConando 9:50 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Aventura, Fla 78.5 °F Light Rain Sorry for those who are in saunas right now. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

1933. HurricaneSwirl 9:50 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting SavannahStorm: Actually, this is even worse: Savannah Hunter, Georgia (Airport) Updated: 51 min 37 sec ago Scattered Clouds 99 �F Scattered Clouds Humidity: 60% Dew Point: 82 �F Wind: 14 mph from the SSW Pressure: 30.01 in (Falling) Heat Index: 125 �F !!! YIKES!! On weather.gov when I typed in savannah it gave me a heat index of 126! Here in Macon it's at a nice cool 105 lol. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1934. SavannahStorm 9:52 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: YIKES!! On weather.gov when I typed in savannah it gave me a heat index of 126! Here in Macon it's at a nice cool 105 lol. Yea, that 82F dewpoint will do it every time. :/ Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2140

1935. jacechase 9:53 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
look at the loop, anyone see something just offshore of mexico???? Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

1936. RickWPB 9:53 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting aquak9: Rick- Thanks for the response. May I direct you to BeachFoxx's blog- she has been running it since the DamnRig caught on fire. She has many good links in her header. Thanks. Bookmarked. Member Since: September 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 299

1937. IKE 9:55 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting aquak9: helloOOOooo! RickWPB, I did answer you... geeez am I on everyone's iggy? My rain gauge is getting another workout today. I've had .88 inches of rain today. Total for July now 9.86 inches of rain without a tropical storm or cat 10 cane. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

1938. ElConando 9:55 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting 10Speed: I don't tend to go by time periods. Florida can and has gone many, many years without anything major before. Just because we haven't had a major in 5 years it doesn't mean we're due. It could be 15 or more. I do concede that we're in a period where the possibility is enhanced though. Return periods For Hurricanes Cat 1-5 the South East and Fla. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

1939. HurricaneSwirl 9:55 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting SavannahStorm: Yea, that 82F dewpoint will do it every time. :/ I bet! Dewpoint of 72F here. Just looked at your Excessive Heat Warning. 110-117 heat indices was the forecast? I think you need an entire new warning for 125+ cause that's just insane. Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1940. MiamiHurricanes09 9:55 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting ElConando: Aventura, Fla 78.5 °F Light Rain Sorry for those who are in saunas right now. Downtown Miami: 78.3 °F Mostly Cloudy Where Levi lives (Homer, Alaska): 57 °F Mostly Cloudy Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1941. MiamiHurricanes09 9:58 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting ElConando: Return periods For Hurricanes Cat 1-5 the South East and Fla. I don't think Miami has ever been hit by a category 5 (since record keeping started in 1856), Andrew was a category 4. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was also a category 4. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1942. ElConando 9:59 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Downtown Miami: 78.3 °F Mostly Cloudy Where Levi lives (Homer, Alaska): 57 °F Mostly Cloudy I'll stick with 78, 57 still a bit too cold for my bones :P. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

1943. Hurricanes101 9:59 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I don't think Miami has ever been hit by a category 5, Andrew was a category 4. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was also a category 4. Andrew was categorized as a Category 5 when it made landfall in South Florida Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

1944. SavannahStorm 10:00 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting ElConando: Return periods For Hurricanes Cat 1-5 the South East and Fla. 500 years is just fine with me... Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2140

1945. GBguy88 10:00 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Andrew was categorized as a Category 5 when it made landfall in South Florida In a post-analysis around a decade later. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 449

1946. Hurricanes101 10:02 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting GBguy88: In a post-analysis around a decade later. yea but the winds were verified Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

1947. MiamiHurricanes09 10:02 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Andrew was categorized as a Category 5 when it made landfall in South Florida Not according to this. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1948. GeoffreyWPB 10:02 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Where has the year gone? Only 5 months til Christmas. Hurricane season will be over before you know it. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9246

1949. Hurricanes12 10:03 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I don't think Miami has ever been hit by a category 5, Andrew was a category 4. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was also a category 4. Miami does not need a category 5 hurricane. When Katrina passed by as a weak cat. 1, Miami was damaged alot! Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528

1950. MiamiHurricanes09 10:03 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting GBguy88: In a post-analysis around a decade later. I didn't know that. Do you have the link that states that? Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1951. ElConando 10:03 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I don't think Miami has ever been hit by a category 5 (since record keeping started in 1856), Andrew was a category 4. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was also a category 4. Andrew was reevaluated in 2002 to have struck S Fla as a Cat 5. From Wikipedia In 2002, as part of an ongoing review of historical hurricane records, National Hurricane Center experts concluded that Andrew had sustained winds of 165 miles per hour (266 km/h) briefly before and during landfall, making it a Category 5. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

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