Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Weather456:
99L Invest...hmmm



Unless 99L has a COC relocation over water I'm not sure why the NHC even bothered to declare it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
99L Invest...hmmm

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Link


Thank you 09 for the link that I didn't have. This ECMWF site has a better resolution than the regular one.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14408
Going to the movies! BBL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Link

Thanks.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Link Please!!
Link
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No-one knows what goes on in someone else's mind.


it was the ants I tell ya....lol
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ike.. he's not a wishcaster.


He's a doom-caster. JK :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The "home-grown mischief" Levi continues to speak about appears pretty well on the run.

144 hours- 1011mb low in the GOMEX and 1009mb low by Bermuda.


72 hours- weak low by Bermuda.


It shows many more before by the end of the run.

Link Please!!
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Quoting hydrus:
.........................Georges was very well organized hurricane...

AHH!The track of terror! GET IT AWAY!! AWAY!!!
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1768. hydrus
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Georges in 1998 did a similar track, over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and not only survived, but never dropped below hurricane strength. That was a tenacious storm!

For a while, it was thought that Elena would cross northern Florida and bring us heavy rains and gales. When it stalled, it was like a noreaster here, steady, soaking, wind driven rain, 25-35 mph. Did quite a bit of erosion.

Some strong squalls did reach across Florida to the Atlantic, the St. Augustine station on the pier reported a wind gust to 75 mph in one.
.........................Georges was very well organized hurricane...
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Quoting IKE:


There's no cat 3's slamming into eastern Florida causing you to evacuate.


Ike.. he's not a wishcaster.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
99L?....Well, everyone wanted something to track! Maybe next they will declare ex-Bonnie 90L :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11321
Quoting IKE:


There's no cat 3's slamming into eastern Florida causing you to evacuate.
Lol, no...I'm just pointing out what it is showing.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1764. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The "home-grown mischief" Levi continues to speak about appears pretty well on the run.

144 hours- 1011mb low in the GOMEX and 1009mb low by Bermuda.


72 hours- weak low by Bermuda.


It shows many more before by the end of the run.


There's no cat 3's slamming into eastern Florida causing you to evacuate.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StormW:


????

V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 29 25
Well... yeah some minor intensification. LOL, SHIPS just a lil' cuckoo.

cuckoo-caster. Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting IKE:
No significant systems on the 12Z ECMWF... or the eastern ATL view through August 4th...


The "home-grown mischief" Levi continues to speak about appears pretty well on the run.

144 hours- 1011mb low in the GOMEX and 1009mb low by Bermuda.


72 hours- weak low by Bermuda.


It shows many more before by the end of the run.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Storm, thanks for the explanation and link re hurricane lightening, or the lack thereof.

And BTW, thats a great photo in #1701 and you should put it among the others on your blog !
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Quoting IKE:
No significant systems on the 12Z ECMWF... or the eastern ATL view through August 4th...




Models change though...:)
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1756. IKE
No significant systems on the 12Z ECMWF... or the eastern ATL view through August 4th...


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Possibly. I think that it is a lot more organized than they thought it would be over land and they want to collect data and you know "investigate" it to see why.

There ya go!
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Quoting StormW:


Maybe their curious to know why SHIPS intensifies it over land?
What I posted was the SHIPS with "no land" with land it doesn't intensify it at all.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I think I know why they declared 99L a invest, its producing a heavy amount of rain and the NHC wanted to see where the models would take it over Mexico and get the message out there on possible flooding.


They could have gotten a request from the Mexican Meterological Services.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I think I know why they declared 99L a invest, its producing a heavy amount of rain and the NHC wanted to see where the models would take it over Mexico and get the message out there on possible flooding.


Possibly. I think that it is a lot more organized than they thought it would be over land and they want to collect data and you know "investigate" it to see why.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1751. hydrus
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I remember back in 1985 when Elena was designated a tropical storm inland over Cuba. I thought that was crazy at the time, didn't know such a thing was possible.
Hurricane # 4 in 1894 stay at hurricane strength its entire path over Hispaniola and Cuba... I did not think that was possible. I remember Elena too. That one gave the forecaster a hard time............................. I take that back, it was a tropical storm for a few hours over Western Cuba. It was a hurricane(almost) the whole way through the Greater Antilles....:)
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I think I know why they declared 99L a invest, its producing a heavy amount of rain and the NHC wanted to see where the models would take it over Mexico and get the message out there on possible flooding.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
Heck if NHC is bored, Invest the naked swirl at ~ 10N 39W.


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The Blog just hit heavy traffic...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.


There ya go.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1744. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/99/L
MARK
21.3N/98.4W
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1743. Drakoen
Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
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Quoting hcubed:


just joined last night, and already knows the history of fallinstorms?


There's a thing called lurking ya know. :)
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Someone should e-mail the NHC and be like, "Can someone please explain why you would designate an invest over land?"
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1740. hcubed
Quoting DeepSouthUS:
Hello. I'm DeepSouthUS (i joined yesterday night), and I promise not to post irrelevant or untrue (false) assumptions on this hurricane season.

Now, while fallinstorms rants and bickers about a very inactive hurricane season, which I know is false, I forecast that we will get somewhere between Matthew and Tomas when the season ends November 30. I also forecast the following:

Probability of a season with 7-12 storms: <1%
Probability of a season with 13-18 storms: about 83%
Probability of a season with 20 or more storms: approximately 27%.

These forecasts are just my opinion. Let's see what this season has to offer.


just joined last night, and already knows the history of fallinstorms?
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1737. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
They must have done it just to get this invest list over with and start off fresh for when the season goes nuts in 8 days or so.
thats my thinking start a new list next up now will be 90l

someone email taz so he can update his invest list first ten down next round of ten to come
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1734. hcubed
Quoting Weather456:



lol, you kidding right? all tropical thunderstorms contain lightning, including MCS, airmass thunderstorms, tropical waves, tropical storms and hurricanes. What is rare in tropical thunderstorms is hail.


But it makes up for it with the graupel.

Even caused a couple of Hunter missions to turn back early.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1712. MiamiHurricanes09

In a case like this you need to look at V (KT) LAND, as the SHIPS V (KT) NO LAND does not account for land interaction.
Oops! I forgot that it was that way.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 34 41 47 53 57 60 60 59 57
V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 29 25
V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 33 36 38
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CybrTeddy:
They must have done it just to get this invest list over with and start off fresh for when the season goes nuts in 8 days or so.


That puts us at AUG 3.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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