Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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While it won't make anything better retrospectively nor environmentally directly:

Not sure if it's been reported over there, but pertaining to the oil spill; BBC just reported that they 'understand' that BP's Chief Exec Tony Hayward is to resign/be pushed out.

Guess it might raise a smile or two.
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Good morning Msgambler and my WU friends.All is quiet right now.Thank goodness.
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Good Morning all.
Looks like some rain headed towards S FL. It'll probably dump more than Bonnie did.
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1328. GetReal
There are numerous reports of scattered power outages around the NOLA metro area.... PLENTY of lightning!!!
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1327. msphar
The MDR looks nice if you are a Downcaster like me.
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The convection around "center" of X-Bonnie has actually increased since landfall. Numerous
strong T-Storms affecting areas W and SW of
New Orleans with gusy winds and Heavy rain.
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1325. IKE
From San Juan,PR discussion.....

"TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W THIS MORNING IS FCST BY 00Z GFS TO IMPACT
THE AREA ON SAT. THIS ALSO FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WITH YDAYS HPC/NHC
NOON COORDINATION CALL. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE UPPER
LVL FEATURES WITH THE GFS ESTABLISHING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHILE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A TUTT AXIS OVR THE MONA PASSAGE. SO VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. AT
ANY RATE...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT OVR THE ATLC BASIN."

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1324. IKE
Yeah, I see it on radar. Hopefully just some beneficial rains. Looks close to moving north of New Orleans, now.....

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1323. dmdhdms
Quoting IKE:
Airport in Miami had 1.64 inches of rain from July 22nd-24th, off of Bonnie. Peak sustained wind of 32 mph, w/a gust to 40 mph.

I had 5.23 inches of rain back on July 11th, in a two-hour period, off of an afternoon thunderstorm.

Weatherman on The Weather Channel earlier this morning said..."Bonnie was a bust."


We seem to be taking the last hurrah here (So. MS) at present. Squalls started about 3 A.M. Rain and lightning, no wind. Remnant low seems to be centered just to the SW of NOLA at present. Radar and Sat. pretty much show it moving out of this area, but there is still weather to the north and west. Looks to be a rain event for SE LA and MS at present.
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1322. IKE
Airport in Miami had 1.64 inches of rain from July 22nd-24th, off of Bonnie. Peak sustained wind of 32 mph, w/a gust to 40 mph.

I had 5.23 inches of rain back on July 11th, in a two-hour period, off of an afternoon thunderstorm.

Weatherman on The Weather Channel earlier this morning said..."Bonnie was a bust."
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1321. JLPR2
Well good morning/night all!
I finished my work, I feel all accomplished now. LOL!

And I'm finally going to bed, I'll probably have nightmares of what I just read and analyzed -.-.

Night or Morning!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
1320. IKE
Morning any and all.

78.4 degrees outside right now.


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE JUST INLAND SE LOUISIANA
IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE FAR
SW GULF. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A ANOTHER
TROUGH ENTERS THE FAR SE WATERS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PORTION MON AND MON NIGHT AND THE WESTERN PORTION
TUE REACHING THE TEXAS COAST WED. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AN ATLC RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD W
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH THU.


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRES OVER SW
CARIBBEAN AND AN ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE E
WINDS OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD WESTWARD TO REST OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND MON NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W
WILL MOVE TO NEAR 72W THIS AFTERNOON...74W TONIGHT...77W
MON...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING MON AND TUE
REACHING THE VICINITY OF GULF OF HONDURAS LATE WED INTO THU. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY THU
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.
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1319. JLPR2
Quoting docrod:
JLPR2 and msgambler - good morn ...

JLPR2 - Glad the college project went fine - it's Sunday - get some sleep.



Morning! :D
And cant do, got 3 other projects waiting for me. :(
*pulls hair out*
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1318. docrod
JLPR2 and msgambler - good morn ...

JLPR2 - Glad the college project went fine - it's Sunday - get some sleep.

Gambler - Ike seems to be doing other things

Setting up to trim trees this morn that are too big for the hurricane season.

Chain saw is ready, waiting for first light - stay safe - out of here - Rod
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1317. JLPR2
Hm... that second part was easier, just one part separates me from sleep time. :D

Also:
Here comes the sun! XD


And I'm still awake T_T
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Morning Ike
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1315. docrod
One last test before Taz reports me ... good eve/morn folks ...

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1314. JLPR2
Well, first part of college project thingy done, two to go.
Seems I wont sleep much tonight. :(
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1313. docrod
Just got up "brews coffee"

Good to see not too much angst in this blog this morning.

Not much 4-casting to do tonight. Just testing the link thingy below.

test
Look out

Ike - did you just get up or been awake with that big moon out there?
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1311. msphar
Pretty quiet night around here. Is this Downcasters Anonymous ? I'm just happy it isn't raining anymore and the wind was blowing today bringing some dust.
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1310. IKE
People on here rooting for the MJO to come back. Jeez....break away from the darn computer. Find something better in life to root for.


As for Bastardi.....

"Now about the MJO lesson. Octant 4 is a nice place to allow the trough to dig close to the northeast. The MJO is in there July 30-Aug 5 and we should get a break, perhaps similar to what we saw to start July, in the northeast. But assuming we go back to where we are now by 10 August, it just means it warms again. The amazing bust in the July forecast by the CFS and NOAA, 3 months in a row of cluelessness, should repeat with the CFS, but not NOAA, they have caught on to the pattern now with their August idea."


What about your bust for July, Joe? Calling for 4 named storms?

"On June 21, Joe Bastardi, Chief Hurricane Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com, revised his earlier forecast to predict that 18 to 21 named storms will occur in the 2010 hurricane season, four of which are expected to occur during July. The revised forecast expects five or six of the named storms to be hurricanes. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/33013/bastardi-ups-hurricane-season.asp15 Bastardi's original forecast called for 16 to 18 names storms."

.............................................


00Z ECMWF shows nothing in the western ATL through August 4th...


Quoting Landfalls:
X, plz post a pic of the ECM on the fouurth of Aug, cause it shows a monster CV storm. Did you see it?


No he didn't, because it isn't there. Here's the eastern ATL view of the ATL through August 4th on the 00Z ECMWF..little to nothing....
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1307. shakaka
Quoting Landfalls:
-__-


GO


AWAY
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1306. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
yeah i think go bed


Ah well, goodnight, I'll be around until who knows! XD

Got a work to do -.-
I hate college during the summer. T_T
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1304. xcool
THE MJO GETS READY TO SHOW ITS MOJO.

The increase in convection the past two weeks have been associated with the MJO in the favorable octants for atlantic development. In the summer time, the increased upward motion in the tropics does result in increased convection in the deep tropics, while to the north, there tends to be ridging. In the winter, the octants that are associated with the summer increase in atlantic convection usually mean a trough over the eastern US. The difference is that in the summer the jet cant reach far enough south to "connect" with the upward motion. The release of heat by the convection will force a ridge north of it. As the hurricane season gets cranking we see more trough splitting and when this is going on, look out, the hurricane season comes alive.

Before I go on here, with the main point, its going to cool in the northeast for 5 days later this week into next ( it will cool first from where it is now, but still be hot in many places this upcoming week) I am starting to get email and read things about this non season.

So let me issue a pre-emptive strike

1) we have already had 2 impact storms, one a minimal tropical storm the other a major hurricane that caused tropical storm conditions. They are scored as tropical storms, one weak, one with strong effects. In addition we had a depression which is also scored as it went into south Texas. Alex did not, in my opinion, give hurricane conditions to south Texas, so it is not scored as a hurricane. Still 3 classified systems and 3 impacts. One cant help but notice how systems blow up further west, an ominous sign for the heart of the season.

2) The MJO is doing as forecasted. It comes out into the octants for development, then runs back into the "Guinea Pig Igloo" as I call it ( my 2 guinea pigs have an igloo they hide in when they are not eating or drinking) But we dont see it wandering into octants 5-7, where it spent much of last year. I explained this many times, it has to do with the upward motion being caused by the ocean, the lack of it in the Pacific because of the rapid cooling, the enhanced around the atlantic and Mexico.

3) The upper levels are rapidly improving for development with the large scale shearing gone from the playing field and being replaced by smaller, westward moving closed lows with ridging behind. Bonnies problem was she was too close to the low and the TPC track west was impossible for development.. I explained all this before hand when people were hyping it. But we are rapidly improving to the classic hurricane bursting outflow pattern.

4) now, to the neh sayers, yes you could be right, but I dont think so. Why? part of the reason we have seen less than 2005 and 2008 is because its warmer overall. This distorts upward motion so it cant focus as much. Unfortunately, even with a warmer than normal Aug-Oct in the works, it will cool over Mexico and the US which means the focus of upward motion will shift to the still warming oceans. With the Pacific crashing as the La Nina goes bonkers, it means the atlantic is going to burst. So for those of you that count total storms, 1) you are missing the boat, the key is impact and 2) I strongly disagree with "giving up" on this season or "spiking the ball" thinking the lower numbers will win. There should be a naming frenzy this year and between Aug 15 and Oct 15, very few days without a named storm on the map.

All this bodes bad for the US coastline, given the 500 mb forecast of ridging in the lakes and northeast. Remember in the 07 reversal that ridge was further south. The big impact seasons have the center of the positive anomaly north of 40 north, where it will be this year.

Now about the MJO lesson. Octant 4 is a nice place to allow the trough to dig close to the northeast. The MJO is in there July 30-Aug 5 and we should get a break, perhaps similar to what we saw to start July, in the northeast. But assuming we go back to where we are now by 10 August, it just means it warms again. The amazing bust in the July forecast by the CFS and NOAA, 3 months in a row of cluelessness, should repeat with the CFS, but not NOAA, they have caught on to the pattern now with their August idea.

by joe .MJO COME BACK SOON.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1303. xcool
yeah i think go bed
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1301. JLPR2
Well, it's rather sad when there is nothing to talk about LOL!
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1300. xcool
:)
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1299. JLPR2
Quoting TampaSpin:
God knows i need my beauty sleep....time to get my beauty restored.......i hope i wake up tho.....LOL....NITE ALL!


XD
Night!
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God knows i need my beauty sleep....time to get my beauty restored.......i hope i wake up tho.....LOL....NITE ALL!
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1297. xcool
LOL
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Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin ECMWF SHOWS THAT


LOL....silly me that was one model i did not even look at to be honest!
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Quoting JLPR2:


Well that looks interesting and problematic down the road.


Below is what i just posted with in on my Site...

I have identified 2 AOI in blue circles to watch long term. First off there is no model support for any development at all in the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days. If you all notice the Pacific has been very quite. Models are showing an increase in activity in the Pacific as rarely do both basins are active the same time.

The area the NHC has in yellow in the BOC should move into Mexico and not develop but, will bring unreal rains to the same region that has had major flooding already.
The AOI in Blue that i have circled in the SW Caribbean is an area to watch long term. There is strong 850mb Vorticity and good Divergence and Convergence but, there is an ULL just to the North that will bring very High Shear and will not allow this to develop. The AOI should move inland and eventually possibly move to the BOC in time.

The AOI i have in the Eastern Atlantic is very far out. The GFS model did hint at some development but, the other models are not showing this to develop. I'm not sure why as it appears to have a decent spin already. This needs watched as possibly the first true Cape Verde storm of the year could come from this Spin.

I am also very fearful that the combination of the ULL and the reminates of Bonnie will cause some very severe Flooding problems coming to the Tennessee Valley area. Flash flooding could be a major problem.
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1294. xcool
TampaSpin ECMWF SHOWS THAT
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1293. JLPR2
Quoting TampaSpin:


OK........NOW tired and getting Sleepy....need the ZZZZZ's......LOL

I just completed this.....



Well that looks interesting and problematic down the road.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting Landfalls:
Hi, Tim, how are ya?


OK........NOW tired and getting Sleepy....need the ZZZZZ's......LOL

I just completed this.....

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1291. xcool
BYE ROB
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1289. xcool
mmmMM SOO GOOD CHEESE PUFF
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1288. xcool
TampaSpin i meaning 3 times This Week"
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1287. JLPR2
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Nite all, check back tomorrow.


night!
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1286. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Nite all, check back tomorrow.
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Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin yeah make 3 times


3 today? It really is not hard to do as they know how to do it now.....The Doc. blog has a problem it appears now.
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1281. xcool
TampaSpin yeah make 3 times
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.