Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bonnie barely alive
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010 +3
Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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2501. atmoaggie 3:39 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting MechEngMet:
2479 Levi: I do recall that cold snap. In town we didn't get lower than the low 20'sF. I stated earlier that the lake keeps the south shore much warmer than the north shore.

If the north shore saw 12F then New Orleans saw ~22F.

Yeah. We do almost always have a low about 10 F cooler than you guys when in a cold snap. Closer to 5 F cooler during the summer nights, but not always.

But, during the day, we sometimes are a little warmer than y'all, too.

Big difference from 30 miles away...thanks to Lake Heatsink.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2503. GeoffreyWPB 3:40 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting caneswatch:


I'm not so sure about that.


I was responding to JFV. He moved his cone of disaster from Miami to West Palm.
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2505. SouthALWX 3:41 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:
Okay.

Yeah, sounds like mesovortecies, with the inner eyewall passage.

But, this part bugs me, a little.

"Additional evidence for the mesovortex theory was seen in the relative humidity measurements. A sudden dip occurred in the near-saturated relative humidity at Barrow at the time of the lull between the two sets of extreme gusts. This may have been caused by a sudden subsidence such as would be expected to occur within the core of a mesovortex."

Wouldn't that also support downbursts, possibly more so than mesovorticies?

taken alone, yes. But as a group of evidence I think it helps the mesovortex argument ... circumstantial evidence if you will.
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2506. Bordonaro 3:41 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting stillwaiting:
your doing the right thing for yourself bordanaro,maybe some action in the west carib next weekend IMO

That area keeps looking healthy. Although we are in a downward MJO, for the moment, the W Caribbean region keeps firing up some real healthy convective outbursts. By Aug 5th, things are going to get real, real interesting off of Africa. Enjoy the break, it will not last forever :o)
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2507. GeoffreyWPB 3:42 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well until after Thanksgiving anyway ;)


For God's Sake...Put a shirt on!!!!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127
2509. JLPR2 3:42 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting PowEDier7:
you too, jp? cool, but, bad timming, :(


XD Tell me about it and my 1pm-7pm schedule is torturing LOL, at least I got Fridays free. :D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
2510. atmoaggie 3:43 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


For God's Sake...Put a shirt on!!!!
Please?
Hmm, deja vu.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2511. caneswatch 3:44 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I was responding to JFV. He moved his cone of disaster from Miami to West Palm.


No, don't tell me he's near me now!!!!!!!!
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
2512. RedStickCasterette 3:44 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


For sure....a cold flow in Anchorage comes from the interior mainland, and sometimes means downsloping off the mountains which results in a much drier cold, while the same cold flow comes off the water into Kenai, resulting in more moisture in the air.


Well I just know I want to go back, if not to live there, but just to see more.

Breathtaking!!! Almost claustrophobic since I am use to flat, open areas. The drive from Anchorage to Kenai was incredible but felt closed.

Then saw "grizzly adams" lol walking through the wilderness and a small building that said "bar", like an outhouse. We got lost in the wilderness and about out of gas. Crazy!
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 257
2514. ElConando 3:45 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


Yup that's what happens for you guys in the southeast during a cold PDO. Alaska is often the opposite of the SE US during the winter. We were very much warmer than normal this past winter, for example.


In Tallahassee there was a four month period where the temperature did not crack 80. That almost never happens. Miami-Dade county had snow flurries this past winter.

Funny thing is the Fall of 09 was not that cold in Tallahassee then all of a sudden I come back up from winter break and its freezing (for me at least).
From what I've been told in La nina years the fall is colder than normal while the winter is warmer and only slightly cooler than the fall.

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2516. 1900hurricane 3:48 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:
Y'all should remember this....Christmas Eve 1989. Lows of 5 degrees Fahrenheit in central Louisiana, 11 degrees near the mouth of the Mississippi south of New Orleans, 9 degrees in the west panhandle of Florida.

Nope, that was before I was born. I do know of that one though. One of the cold snaps we had this winter was the coldest one since then.

By the way, where do you get all of those cool anomaly maps?

Quoting RedStickCasterette:


That happened in the Houston area in the 90's. Several tornadoes wiped out a subdivision in Channelview, which is east of Houston.

Crazy!

That outbreak happened in November and was non-tropical. However, it did produce a high-end F4 that leveled Channelview and was rated the 7th biggest weather event of the 1900s by the NWS and the 3rd biggest weather event during Bill Read's tenure at the NWS HGX. As I mentioned earlier, the most intense tornado that I have ever seen from a tropical cyclone was the F4 that Hurricane Carla spawned on Galveston Island in 1961.
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2517. SouthALWX 3:48 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
my schedulae is kind of crummy this year come fall .... I did manage to fit in Dr. Blackwell's tropical discussion class in on Fridays though .... Will be great!
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2519. CybrTeddy 3:49 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:
Y'all should remember this....Christmas Eve 1989. Lows of 5 degrees Fahrenheit in central Louisiana, 11 degrees near the mouth of the Mississippi south of New Orleans, 9 degrees in the west panhandle of Florida.



Levi, this might seem random.. could you post one of Jan, '86 for the same region.. particularly Florida.
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2520. GeoffreyWPB 3:49 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:
Please?
Hmm, deja vu.


Running joke. It used to be you had to be holding a fish to have an avatar without a shirt on.
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2521. ElConando 3:49 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:
Lol, Miami isn't going to get leveled on August 23rd. Let's just wait and see.


I'm sure he just wants to miss the beginning of school. I remember fay canceled the first two days of school of my senior year of high school.
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2522. atmoaggie 3:50 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting SouthALWX:
my schedulae is kind of crummy this year come fall .... I did manage to fit in Dr. Blackwell's tropical discussion class in on Fridays though .... Will be great!
Keith B. is a friend.

(And a former Aggie)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2523. Levi32 3:50 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Nope, that was before I was born. I do know of that one though. One of the cold snaps we had this winter was the coldest one since then.

By the way, where do you get all of those cool anomaly maps?


That outbreak happened in November and was non-tropical. However, it did produce a high-end F4 that leveled Channelview and was rated the 7th biggest weather event of the 1900s by the NWS and the 3rd biggest weather event during Bill Read's tenure at the NWS HGX. As I mentioned earlier, the most intense tornado that I have ever seen from a tropical cyclone was the F4 that Hurricane Carla spawned on Galveston Island in 1961.


That one came from here
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2524. atmoaggie 3:51 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Running joke. It used to be you had to be holding a fish to have an avatar without a shirt on.
Dude, I know...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2525. JLPR2 3:52 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting ElConando:


I'm sure he just wants to miss the beginning of school. I remember fay canceled the first two days of school of my senior year of high school.


That's interesting, I dont remember closed first day school days, yes in the middle, but never at the start.

Well PR usually sees storms in September, not that much in August.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
2526. Levi32 3:52 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Levi, this might seem random.. could you post one of Jan, '86 for the same region.. particularly Florida.


What day....lol.

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2527. CybrTeddy 3:53 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


What day....lol.



28th.
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2528. SouthALWX 3:53 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
On WV it looks like all the ULLs are simultaneously weakening? Must be an illusion?
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2530. SouthALWX 3:54 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:
Keith B. is a friend.

(And a former Aggie)

He's a brilliant tropical analyst, but Im sure you know that ^_^
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
2531. MechEngMet 3:54 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Goodnight all. I had an enjoyable and educational evening here (until YKH showed up).

I'll check back in a few days to see what's up.
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2532. RedStickCasterette 3:54 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:
Over here, in Covington, we had a solid 6 inches in Dec 08. Stuck around for 48 hours, too.

Visible satellite image showed snow cover the next day for us, Hammond, and parts of S central MS.

That, I had only seen in the mountains and upper midwest.


It was funny because right before a good snowfall here, I think in January?. family had gotten heavy snowfall in Houston. I was jealous because we just got a few flurries here. Maybe it was Dec.

Anyway, later, we had a big snowfall in like Jan or Feb and it was the opposite for them. Same thing the prior year.

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2533. Levi32 3:54 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


28th.


Pretty cold there too...

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2534. 1900hurricane 3:55 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


28th.

Was that the day of the Challenger?
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2535. 1900hurricane 3:56 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


That one came from here

Thanks for that link! And on that note, I think I'm going to go for good now. Catch y'all later! :)
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2536. Levi32 3:56 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Was that the day of the Challenger?


Yeah..
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2537. RedStickCasterette 3:57 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    

Quoting atmoaggie:
Over here, in Covington, we had a solid 6 inches in Dec 08. Stuck around for 48 hours, too.

Visible satellite image showed snow cover the next day for us, Hammond, and parts of S central MS.

That, I had only seen in the mountains and upper midwest.


Oh and yes, in '08 we had a ton in Baton Rouge. Stayed on the ground for a couple days. Again, it was strange, Texas got flurries and we got inches. Seems to work the opposite with them.
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2538. CybrTeddy 3:57 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


Pretty cold there too...



Wow, that's astonishing. Thanks for posting, I've always wanted to see the temps for that day. One of the saddest days in American history and one of the main reasons was because of those temps..
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2539. atmoaggie 3:58 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Thanks for that link! And on that note, I think I'm going to go for good now. Catch y'all later! :)
I think N-G introduced that one to us...or maybe Bowman.
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2542. SouthALWX 3:59 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Let me see ....
Snow talk ... in the south ... in July .... must be a slow period in the hurricane season amirite?
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2544. RedStickCasterette 3:59 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
>Quoting Levi32:


Good to know you folks in NOLA have at least seen the stuff that I have to live with 7 months of the year :)


Would do anything to live in that!!!!!!
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2545. Levi32 4:00 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


My old house, Christmas Eve morning, 1989. On St. Simons.





Wow, awesome! =)
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2547. SouthALWX 4:01 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Hey Levi. Have you ever seen a raindrop? It's like snow. Except melted. You'll know it when you see it.
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2548. CybrTeddy 4:01 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
We had snow flurries the day before the Space shuttle blew up. At 11 am.


Yea, temps got very low that night in Florida too. This formed on the space shuttle launch pad. The rest of course, is history. I've never seen so many icicles in Florida, at least not this big.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280
2549. RedStickCasterette 4:03 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting Bordonaro:

Without medical insurance I sincerely doubt any for profit hospital will do anything but tell me," You are stabilized, patiently wait your turn at JPS for surgery"!!

To top things off, the 3 coronary arteries that supply the main blood supply to my heart are 20,30 and 40% blocked. They stated that it was not necessary to install stints in those blood vessels in my heart, stating the blockages were not critical.

And I asked the doctor's WHY I have tingling and sharp pains in my head and my left arm, and pressure in my chest for 15 days non-stop. Of course, they did NOT have an answer!!!


Oh that's scary but I think you will do okay and come through it. I just wonder what they are thinking? Perhaps better to wait than the risks of surgery or stents on the others?
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 257
2550. SouthALWX 4:04 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, temps got very low that night in Florida too. This formed on the space shuttle launch pad. The rest of course, is history

NASA: note to self, icicles plus space shuttle = boom. got it. I still dont understand how they could see that and still go through with it. We learned alot that day .. the biggest thing being that it's easier for something to go wrong than everything to go right.
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2551. MississippiWx 4:05 AM GMT on July 26, 2010    
Hey, Levi.

That cold outbreak you mentioned in 1989 was incredible. It actually froze part of the marsh areas of Mississippi and Louisiana and killed a lot of fish.

This past winter was very cold for our standards and half of my lake froze over. Really amazing that we have gone from so cold to so hot.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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