Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting btwntx08:

WOW where going too flood

Quoting reedzone:
:O wow, you all did put me on ignore.. All I did was make a prediction, I never said Bonnie was going to be a Hurricane..

Not me.

eat your heart out lolol

Quoting BenBIogger:


Not me.

Me neither

Quoting reedzone:
:O wow, you all did put me on ignore.. All I did was make a prediction, I never said Bonnie was going to be a Hurricane..

Not that I'm someone your worried about ignoring you, but I didn't ignore you. I'll never ignore just because a storm proved someone wrong. I only ignore when someone is being caustic for no reason, attacking others for no reason or making ridiculous claims that tie up blog space or endanger lives if folks believe them. This does not apply to you.

In fact, if you wanna dig up info on me, I only said that Bonnie had a 50/50 chance of being a Hurricane, and it didn't happen. I never hyped this storm up, I was being conservative because with the ULL to it's west, there was no telling what could happen. I never pointed at a "Katrina" like storm, I did say that it could ramp up quickly if the ULL kept moving away, but then it stalled. I'm sorry if I somehow "annoyed" you with my prediction which is an opinion, not a statement.

Quoting Levi32:


They never admitted that it was separate from Bonnie back when it was hanging onto Bonnie's skirts in the eastern Caribbean. This image is from July 21st:

It was a weak wave that followed behind Bonnie and became unmistakably a separate entity that has traveled westward across the Caribbean and is now moving over the Yucatan. They label these things surface troughs when they suddenly analyze them out of the blue without admitting that they were trackable long before this.

Although the origin of what is over the Yucatan is from the energy that was left behind from the wave that became Bonnie..
There was no wave that ran into the back of Bonnie. It was an induced trough from the convection that sat over us for a 3 days as the trades brought more warm air in behind over the outflow. Back when that was all happening and few people saw the trough and convection and were talking about it developing I posted the ASCATs and Surface analysis for it etc.
The last post of the series was "lets see how it does on it's own" and the other stuff is in front of that..day after is got an AOI with less that 1% chance

Convection in Yucatan?

Quoting KimberlyB:


Not that I'm someone your worried about ignoring you, but I didn't ignore you. I'll never ignore just because a storm proved someone wrong. I only ignore when someone is being caustic for no reason, attacking others for no reason or making ridiculous claims that tie up blog space or endanger lives if folks believe them. This does not apply to you.

Thanks, I only attack those who make bold downcasting or even wishcasting statements.

Quoting BenBIogger:


Not me.

Ok, just wondering cause I didn't get any replies like most people do

I must say the pacific is looking a little nippy.

Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL. I have a clip for that one too.

Link

LOL!

cv storms cmc ngp gfs

Quoting reedzone:


Ok, just wondering cause I didn't get any replies like most people do

dont worry... I rarely get replies too

get ready kaboom

next ECMWF

StormW,

Have you ever seen so much dry air over the Atlantic off the African coast for this time of year and for this long?

Also, do you see changes in the upper level winds over the Atlantic off the coast of Africa?

Everything that comes off the coast is getting sheared to an oblivion.

Quoting reedzone:
In fact, if you wanna dig up info on me, I only said that Bonnie had a 50/50 chance of being a Hurricane, and it didn't happen. I never hyped this storm up, I was being conservative because with the ULL to it's west, there was no telling what could happen. I never pointed at a "Katrina" like storm, I did say that it could ramp up quickly if the ULL kept moving away, but then it stalled. I'm sorry if I somehow "annoyed" you with my prediction which is an opinion, not a statement.

Reed, this is from a typical lurker. You seem to be a bright young fellow...please stop using "I" so many times in your sentencing. It make you sound either whinney or arrogant. You used it 8 times in the above quote.

Who thinks the next area around the Yucatan is about to form some disturbance?

Quoting cirrocumulus:
Who thinks the next area around the Yucatan is about to form some disturbance?

I was checking that out this morning. Just depends on what the upper level winds will do?

Quoting sailingallover:

Although the origin of what is over the Yucatan is from the energy that was left behind from the wave that became Bonnie..
There was no wave that ran into the back of Bonnie. It was an induced trough from the convection that sat over us for a 3 days as the trades brought more warm air in behind over the outflow. Back when that was all happening and few people saw the trough and convection and were talking about it developing I posted the ASCATs and Surface analysis for it etc.
The last post of the series was "lets see how it does on it's own" and the other stuff is in front of that..day after is got an AOI with less that 1% chance

Um no, there was a weak tropical wave behind Bonnie that was trackable behind her across the Atlantic. It was not a fracture they were always separate. I've been tracking it forever now.

July 20th....

Could anything develop off the cold front that is exiting the east coast?

Latest 12Z ECMWF.

Quoting cirrocumulus:
Who thinks the next area around the Yucatan is about to form some disturbance?

From what I've been reading, from folks far more knowledgeable and experience then I, it has a VERY hard road to travel to become anything. There is a ULL to it's north that will greatly hinder any development. It can't be ruled out entirely, but very unlikely.

Good afternoon everyone!

Looks like its time for Dr. Carver to update the blog. Bonnie dying is old news LOL..

The system over the Yucatan could end up being just like TD2. It has a lot of turning in the mid-levels and once it emerges over the BOC, it might work its way down to the surface, just like TD2.

Quoting IKE:
Latest 12Z ECMWF.

looks like Pacific activity...

Quoting tropicfreak:
Could anything develop off the cold front that is exiting the east coast?

It should be watched for possible home-grown mischief, though our best chance for that may come with the 2nd front that will drop down in the same area this weekend.

Quoting MississippiWx:
The system over the Yucatan could end up being just like TD2. It has a lot of turning in the mid-levels and once it emerges over the BOC, it might work its way down to the surface, just like TD2.

I agree, unless conditions are absolutely ripe for rapid intensification.

ECMWF.cmc gfs ngp cv storm

No news , is good news

Ever notice that Ike only posts forecast models when they don't show something lol

not saying its wrong or anything, just an observation

Lots and lots of thunderstorm activity here in TN

Quoting Levi32:


It should be watched for possible home-grown mischief, though our best chance for that may come with the 2nd front that will drop down in the same area this weekend.

Alright then, because here in the midatlantic we are still rain-needy.

Quoting caneswatch:


Me neither

Me niether too

what do you know, Zep's back......cool

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ever notice that Ike only posts forecast models when they don't show something lol

not saying its wrong or anything, just an observation

Ever think about him doing it because he wants to show GOOD news? Ike is optimistic and there is nothing wrong with that. If a major hurricane is bearing down on someone, Ike isn't going to post false info about it being weak or anything. Until the season surpasses 13 named storms, Ike is just as correct as anyone else on this blog.

ECMWF run on the idea that "Cape Verde"around August 5

Quoting DestinJeff:


Somehow I imagine you posting that with a final, forceful click of the mouse button ... like "TAKE THAT!"

Im not much of a Simpsons fan but those icons are priceless

A Simpsons show featuring Steph and Jim Cantore would be interesting.