Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

2010:



2005:



Don't forget that 2005 already had 2 major hurricanes by this time that upwelled a lot of water, but this still goes to show how truly warm we are out there.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Chicklit, that's a good cluster in the ITCZ---maybe it will break away and form a depression to give us something to talk about.

The ECMWF might verify too.. its been very consistent with a storm in the Caribbean (now two of them this run)

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Whoa! 12z ECMWF. At 192 hours a tropical depression..



At 240 hours looks like Two tropical storms in the Caribbean.. this could get interesting.

That shows TS Colin and Danielle in the Caribbean at 240 hours. The first one looks like its heading for the USA

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess no one cares our most reliable model which has nailed all systems except Bonnie is developing two systems in the Caribbean on the 12z? Its been very consistent with one (since Bonnie died its been showing it), however two I haven't seen yet.

Oh, absolutely I took note of the model run for sure. We are just now about to enter the start of the most active part of hurricane season. I certainly hope the other bloggers on here have taken note of that model as well instead of talking politics.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I live in Fort Worth, its a TUTT LOW

'Same one that influenced Bonnie? How's the weather outside? 'Just read gusts over 60mph in some areas.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess no one cares our most reliable model which has nailed all systems except Bonnie is developing two systems in the Caribbean on the 12z? Its been very consistent with one (since Bonnie died its been showing it), however two I haven't seen yet.

Hi Ted, looks like the SAL is starting to wear a little thin, doesn't it?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess no one cares our most reliable model which has nailed all systems except Bonnie is developing two systems in the Caribbean on the 12z? Its been very consistent with one (since Bonnie died its been showing it), however two I haven't seen yet.

It is something to think about for sure but it is nothing eminent 192 hours out is 7 days. We shall see what pans out in that time.

Looks like 3 systems on the ECMWF on August 5th (240 hours?)

am heading for 60,000 commets soon


then 70,000 commets by late AUGS


then 80,000 commets OCT


then 90,000 commets NOV


then 100,000 commets by the end of year

Quoting LightningCharmer:
'Same one that influenced Bonnie? How's the weather outside? 'Just read gusts over 60mph in some areas.

Just cloudy here...

Quoting ElConando:


It is something to think about for sure but it is nothing eminent 192 hours out is 7 days. We shall see what pans out in that time.

Its been highly consistent, which has certainly caught my attention. It is our most reliable model, remember while it did not get Bonnie it got Alex, TD2, Bill, Fred, and a lot of other storms. Its the time of year when you start seeing consistency in the models like the ECMWF is showing it could very well develop.

Quoting Tazmanian:
am heading for 60,000 commets soon


then 70,000 commets by late AUGS


then 80,000 commets OCT


then 90,000 commets NOV


then 100,000 commets by the end of year

Now thats alot of space travel!


(yes I know theres an xtra 'm' in it)

19 PGI19L 100726 2300 14.7N 55.4W ATL 15 1010mb

Wait? Politics? Im pretty sure no one was talking politics .. we were off topic sure but mostly were just taking cheap shots and making jokes across the aisle ... wait a minute...
My mistake we WERE talking politics afterall!

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess no one cares our most reliable model which has nailed all systems except Bonnie is developing two systems in the Caribbean on the 12z? Its been very consistent with one (since Bonnie died its been showing it), however two I haven't seen yet.

I don't think it's a matter of not caring. It's more a wait and see thing. Anyone following the models has made a note of that I'm sure, but there is nothing that can be really talked about until we see how it plays out.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


That huge area of hot water between Puerto Rico and Bermuda---I'm not sure I've ever seen the water so warm over so wide an area in that region before.

There will be plenty of warm water from Brownsville, TX all the way up to Boston, MA this year. The ridge will probably stay strong enough most of the year to protect the Northeast, but North and South Carolina/Virginia might have a shot at a major this year.

Quoting SouthALWX:
Wait? Politics? Im pretty sure no one was talking politics .. we were off topic sure but mostly were just taking cheap shots and making jokes across the aisle ... wait a minute...
My mistake we WERE talking politics afterall!

+1

Quoting xcool:
19 PGI19L 100726 2300 14.7N 55.4W ATL 15 1010mb

hmmmm

wave at 40w

Quoting SouthALWX:
Wait? Politics? Im pretty sure no one was talking politics .. we were off topic sure but mostly were just taking cheap shots and making jokes across the aisle ... wait a minute...
My mistake we WERE talking politics afterall!

Thanks for editing your post and owning up for the mistake. Apology accepted by this blogger.

Tazmanian .nooo 90L

Quoting SouthALWX:
Wait? Politics? Im pretty sure no one was talking politics .. we were off topic sure but mostly were just taking cheap shots and making jokes across the aisle ... wait a minute...
My mistake we WERE talking politics afterall!

"Suppose you were an idiot, and suppose you were a member of congress; but I repeat myself." - Mark Twain

Hi St. Simon's Guy,
Yeah, it's still in the ITCZ but look at the shear map and the loops it appears things ahead are moving northerly. Dunno a bit out of my depth here. CIMSS
CATLWVLoop

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its been highly consistent, which has certainly caught my attention. It is our most reliable model, remember while it did not get Bonnie it got Alex, TD2, Bill, Fred, and a lot of other storms. Its the time of year when you start seeing consistency in the models like the ECMWF is showing it could very well develop.

Understood, good observation! If this were to be the Case the system in the NW Caribbean by the ECMWF would start slowly developing sometime between Thurs-Sat.

It's good to have goals, TAZ.
I write mine down and then check 'em off as they're done. :)

Quoting CybrTeddy:
guys look at post 3430.. anyone out there? Drak, Levi, MH09?

WeatherNerd here! That looks interesting, August could be, err..., EXPLOSIVE!!!

Quoting ElConando:


Understood, good observation! If this were to be the Case the system in the NW Caribbean by the ECMWF would start slowly developing sometime between Thurs-Sat.

The first one yes, it appears the first one comes from that large naked tropical wave in the Atlantic right now that Levi mentioned in his video.

Quoting btwntx08:

2nd one by puerto rico

I see a little something down in the south Caribbean, maybe too far south to develop, but certainly worth watching.

The system over the Yucatan is beginning to look pretty interesting. Need to check surface observations for a center trying to form at the surface. It has a very pronounced spin in the mid-levels. Just like TD2, it is trying to organize over land.

Quoting SaintPatrick:
Can someone whisper me and tell me how to upload photos on here and how to change my avatar.

Click your icon in your last post. You probably will be able to follow for yourself from there.

am forcasting 10 name storms for AUG and 10 name storm for SEP

Quoting btwntx08:
hmmm just checked how many comments i have now i need 81 more to 7000

How do you check that?

Tazmanian .WOW 10 .i m call for 6 name storms for AUG .

Quoting MississippiWx:
The system over the Yucatan is beginning to look pretty interesting. Need to check surface observations for a center trying to form at the surface. It has a very pronounced spin in the mid-levels. Just like TD2, it is trying to organize over land.

I was waiting to see what happened to it over land. You may be right, sneaky devil it is.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That shows TS Colin and Danielle in the Caribbean at 240 hours. The first one looks like its heading for the USA

Is Danielle the one in the Eastern Caribbean?