Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800
The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.
A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It was crazy, I had a palm frond fall off and it literally fell 5 feet from the tree, it was NUTZ man.
Before posting your exaggerated and sarcastic posts, you should be more serious with what Bonnie did do. During Bonnie, the whole FL. International Airport's power went out causing many delays and loss of revenue. There were also cars damaged by toppling trees. There was probably much more damage reported as well. That was only on the news. It's quite annoying to see people talk about Bonnie as being such a storm with absolutely no meaning. It did cause damage and was quite significant. It was also one of few storms to impact Florida in the year of July. Damage might not have been significant to you, but quite disastrous for other people.
In addition, if you haven't finished getting your hurricane supplies, ie-water, batteries, etc, etc. now would be a great time to do it when you aren't fighting panicked crowds and low stock.
Bonnie? U mean Colin?
As the development from ex_90L is projected to be slower than expected, does this mean that it would track westward a lot more now and therefore, more of the southern leeward islands need to keep an eye on this?
Thanks
i see it spins up other storm
That was great. Thanks for the good info.
Also, her precursor caused flooding throughout PR and the Virgin Islands, killing 1 person.
Why isn't it an Invest yet?
Well, maybe in the shower.
They are a semipermanent feature but they can lift mostly out of the tropics from time to time, and in some years when they are very weak they can stay out of the tropical latitudes most of the time.
Say what you will about Bonnie; she actually should have been a good wake up call for all of us in FL. If conditions had been slightly different she could have pulled a Charley of '04 and strengthen 2 categories and shift landfall location by about 50 miles
I know that's an exaggeration but still, things could have been very different.
Seeing as it is improving in convection and in structure a bit, chances are medium-high within the upcoming days. However, waves can easily come together and fall apart as quick.
Thanks! :)
Speaking of the next TWO...
What % will 91L to be have in the next TWO?
a)30%
b)40%
c)50%
d)Greater than 50%
e)None of these. NHC will bring out the yellow candy drop again.
wait a little, maybe this evening
Great. I get an approaching TC the day before my B-day.
I agree. People are just upset at the fact that Bonnie never met their expectations. It caused tons of flooding in the islands, unfortunate deaths, as well as damage well into the hundred-thousands most likely.
I paid $8,000 to a have natural gas generator installed at my house in Kingwood.
We were without electricicty for 13 days after Ike in 2008 and my wife told me that if we were going to continue living in this God forsaken place that she wanted a gas generator.
It runs the whole 3,750 SF house including the pool.
We've already had the power go out here a couple of times and 12 seconds later I've got power.
I'm ready but like I said my neighbors thanked me because they think because of my investment we won't have another cane here again!
:o
The question is, is the High strong enough to supress 91L to be south of the East Coast, and if it doesn't, how far west will it go? I will be in Virginia, when supposedly the storm is supposed to hit. :o
D
Yay it goes away!
Sorry to hear that. Things weren't too good for my daughter in '92. Andrew formed on her birthday.
B or C.
Do you think that is what explains the faster motion?
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