Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2170. xcool
F4PHANTOM .you welcome.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Bordonaro:

\


lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting Bordonaro:

The NHC will need a bigger box of Crayola's. Before long we'll see yellow, orange and red circles all over the Tropical Atlantic.



yep
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
2165. pottery
Quoting chicotman:
Tornado damage is estimated after the storm.They move to fast.

After Ivan crossed Grenada, I dont think anyone cared what speed the wind was or whether there were tornados.
People were preoccupied trying to get shelter, food, water, medicines.
The deaths were very low, but most of the buildings on the island were destroyed or badly damaged.
Was a bad one for them.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



high 60-70%

The NHC will need a bigger box of Crayola's. Before long we'll see yellow, orange and red circles all over the Tropical Atlantic.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2163. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Yeah!
But I do not think that any wind-speed guages survived on Grenada, so the Cat 3 thing is dubious.
That wind broke down the stone Fort that had stood through several other Hurricanes (Janet etc) for a hundred and fifty years I think.
The nutmeg trees (which are not softies as you know) were shredded.
Yatchs in the carenage were picked-up and thrown onto the land and there was on surf in the harbour.
And very heavy destruction was sometimes isolated.
As you say, Immense Power.
So tornados seem to be a possibility/probability.


I saw the images of the broken walls and all the destruction and that was unbelievable. Worse yet .. to think of it .. a Cat 3 is only a "moderate" intensity hurricane based on the hurricane scale. Farless those Cat 5s which have struck Central America in the last 3 years or so.
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2162. hcubed
Quoting weatherwart:


"Ignore" is such a handy feature.


I agree...
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2161. xcool
F4PHANTOM .i agree 100% ;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
this may even be a TD right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
wow dark green over ex-90L/possible reactivation/pre-91L

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2158. aquak9
Quoting Greyelf:
Lol...funny you should say that. I told her about this place and she told me, "Well, since you're already there, can't you watch for me?" Heh. Things that moms do for the kids, eh?


that is funny, elf. You in nebraska, she in florida, yet YOU gotta watch the tropics.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26286
Quoting scott39:
Poor Fl.--- Like a thumb that cant move!



yup



and note the CMC is on ice
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
2155. Greyelf
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


WU has Tampa covered, if in need make it known.

Thank you! I will be sure to keep track of things.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Will probably be ramped up to about 50-60% on the TWO in about 44 minutes :o)



high 60-70%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
New 0z CMC takes out into the open atlantic

At 144 hrs it has it around 28n 63w
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2152. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
FL land fall it is then
Poor Fl.--- Like a thumb that cant move!
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Gotta admit that this disturbance continues to become better organized and its appearance has greatly improved in the past several hours. Will be interested to see how the NHC approaches their next outlook considering the rather quick improvement in organization and building convection thus far tonight.



yup me too cant wait




get your raw fish ready
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting scott39:
It may be safe to say we will skip the invest stage, or not be one for very long.


Or the TWO is going to smack you in the face like a ton of bricks?

I see the duck, it quacks.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
2149. Greyelf
Quoting aquak9:
GreyElf- maybe ya oughtta buy her a membership to this site.

Lol...funny you should say that. I told her about this place and she told me, "Well, since you're already there, can't you watch for me?" Heh. Things that moms do for the kids, eh?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yup

Will probably be ramped up to about 50-60% on the TWO in about 44 minutes :o)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting scott39:
It may be safe to say we will skip the invest stage, or not be one for very long.



yup the way this is going
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Gotta admit that this disturbance continues to become better organized and its appearance has greatly improved in the past several hours. Will be interested to see how the NHC approaches their next outlook considering the rather quick improvement in organization and building convection thus far tonight.
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Hey everybody!!!
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Taz, this may already be a depression!
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Quoting WaterWitch11:
hey everyone!


hi
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
2142. xcool
Tazmanian .100% yeah
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2141. scott39
It may be safe to say we will skip the invest stage, or not be one for very long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FL land fall it is then
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
hey everyone!
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, beginning to look like a W PAC monsoon system. That Ex 90L is real mean and ugly looking, putting up -80C cloud tops for almost 12 hours now!



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Tornado damage is estimated after the storm.They move to fast.
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Quoting xcool:
F4PHANTOM .I have to throw all out the door.cmc gfs ecmwf imo.



are you a fishcaster?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
2135. Patrap
Kind of a Dr. Peppa Mauve at the End..,from Scarlet red at the Beginning of the Loop.

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop





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Quoting Tazmanian:
i say this thing looks like some in you see in the W PAC

Yes, beginning to look like a W PAC monsoon system. That Ex 90L is real mean and ugly looking, putting up -80C cloud tops for almost 12 hours now!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Greyelf:

She's in Tampa. Air Force folk.


WU has Tampa covered, if in need make it known.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting scott39:
LOL ask me in about 5 days.



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
2130. xcool
F4PHANTOM .I have to throw all out the door.cmc gfs ecmwf imo.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2129. aquak9
GreyElf- maybe ya oughtta buy her a membership to this site.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26286
Quoting zoomiami:


black or grizzly? and I want to watch!



i send in both of them oh wait i send in the bees has well
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
2127. scott39
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
ecmwf to the left ; cmc to the right ; gfs up the middle pick your poison.
LOL ask me in about 5 days.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
HEY NHC I GOT ONE WORD FOR YOU WAKE UP


I assure you... they are awake... Mostly likely putting together the latest TWO as we speak. (And that was two words. ;))
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2125. aquak9
on second thought, Dewey, if it'll keep a 'cane away from the coast, I might just borrow that avatar, too.

Now that'd be something if like fifteen of us had the same avatar...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26286
i say this thing looks like some in you see in the W PAC
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting Tazmanian:
i no what will wake them up i send in a baer that will do it


black or grizzly? and I want to watch!
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2122. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/XX/XL
MARK
9.2N/36.3W

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2121. Patrap
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.