Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800
The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.
A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ABNT20 KNHC 312337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE...AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA
If that was the case then why did 2005 happen?
40% and no invest. Very interesting....
I don't think it's a problem for tropical development. You're thinking of large areas of disturbed weather that are so large and complex that sometimes they never develop or are very slow in doing so. That is something you often see in other basins in the northern hemisphere, but here in the Atlantic it's not as much of a "problem" because we have tropical waves, features that are unique to our basin and provide local focus-points for air to pile up and tropical cyclones to form. And besides, I can think of several ways conditions could have been more favorable so far this year. This isn't perfect.
91L TO BE ACTIVATED SHORTLY
Wu-tastic.
He does live in Central FL.
Expect this area to be 91L pretty shortly
A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Hundreds of people have died in northwestern Pakistan after floods triggered by monsoon rains swept through the region.
More than a million people have been affected and thousands forced to flee their homes as bloated rivers washed away villages and triggered devastating landslides.
Rescue operations are underway to save the stranded, but submerged roads and destroyed infrastructure are proving to be major obstacles.
Al Jazeera's Sohail Rahman reports from Islamabad, Pakistan's capital.
ditch the SAL, lift the tutt, drop the AB high center .....
I know, I'm edumacated. Thanks, I love agreeable folks. The ITCZ has a tendency to fool a lot of people.....with all its convection this time of year.
Indicating the circulation is quite broad.
you post you get re ported and you commets get re move
Holy cow! West Africa exploded........LOL
hmmm ?
they haven't invested it yet...have they?
That's what happens in a La Nina year....the Atlantic gets all the heat and the eastern Pacific gets sheared. This is important to remember because some don't realize that the eastern Pacific doesn't get sheared by upper westerlies during a La Nina, but by upper easterlies because of the upper ridging getting pulled farther north into the Atlantic.
97E getting a shave:
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of Sat 31 Jul 2010 23:45:01Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year
Atlantic
NONE
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
Central Pacific
92C.INVEST
West Pacific
95W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Viewing: 1101 - 1151
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