Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800
The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.
A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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map is out!!
and I am OUT!!!
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WITHIN THIS REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA CENTERED ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...HOWEVER THIS WEATHER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE...AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
And thats the real two so what will they think of your email?
LOL!
All you did was post the TWO. You should have never been reported or had a comment removed by Admin, very bad form on Admin for removing your comment.
Agreed, jeez Wu really?
you guys are just too aggressive and tend to attack without giving the person a chance, grow some patience!
It was a misunderstanding, obviously.
You got the info before anyone else did.
People owe you some appologies.
lol ..
Probably! Sorry we snapped at you :O)!!
you grabbed that before the rest of us saw it.
has been too long of a day and I am sorry for the mean words.
same here
Click the orange circle in the NHC map.
Taz, it's there. Even I see it. Link
the map has not even been updated yet
1. A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WITHIN THIS REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA CENTERED ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
??
Someone needs some sleep XD
Well you guys got internet problems then
AM still seeing this on the maine page
Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 Tropical Weather Discussion
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010
O_O
the best non-invest area of the year XD
Taz it is correct. Click on the map and scroll down and you will see that it is the 2am
Yeah the main page never updated, seems the NHC is having problems too.
People just need to relax, that was EXTREMELY uncalled for. ESPECIALLY IN HERE. BACK UP YOUR COMMENTS WITH FACTS BEFORE MAKING THEM IS WHAT THIS PLACE IS ABOUT.
WeatherfanPR did.
The offenders should be banned for 24, out.
lol Why do we always end up talking about food around this time. Midnight cravings?
Even if it looks fake maybe people should've chilled calmed down and check for themselves all possible areas where the TWO is posted on the NHC before ripping him up.
he copied the part of the CATL one only
Amen!
I gave him the benefit of the doubt, no reason to say outright that he had made it up.
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