Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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770. xcool
.gfs move to fast imo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Levi32:
Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 31st, with Video

That was great. Thanks for the good info.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Bonnie? U mean Colin?
Quoting Tazmanian:
Bonnie back from the dead 09?
C'mon people I'm tired here. LOL! Meant to say ex-90L. I corrected it.
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Quoting xcool:



i see it spins up other storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
126 hours



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763. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
762. xcool
gfs to fast
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Hi All,

As the development from ex_90L is projected to be slower than expected, does this mean that it would track westward a lot more now and therefore, more of the southern leeward islands need to keep an eye on this?

Thanks
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


Before posting your exaggerated and sarcastic posts, you should be more serious with what Bonnie did do. During Bonnie, the whole FL. International Airport's power went out causing many delays and loss of revenue. There were also cars damaged by toppling trees. There was probably much more damage reported as well. That was only on the news. It's quite annoying to see people talk about Bonnie as being such a storm with absolutely no meaning. It did cause damage and was quite significant.
Very True, Don't make fun of Mother Nature just because it didn't turn out the way one might have personally thought it should, she might come right back with revenge and she can be very violent and unforgiven at times.
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Bonnie back from the dead 09?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I just don't see Bonnie recurving like the GFS is showing (discounting the CMC for now). Let's see if it still recurves it in this run.


Bonnie? U mean Colin?
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Only 5 days away from the islands
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Quoting xcool:
I just don't see ex-90L recurving like the GFS is showing (discounting the CMC for now). Let's see if it still recurves it in this run.
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Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser:
Hydrus, We had a Tropical Storm Bonnie.......................... Seen more rain and T and L in a 5:30 daily rain storm LOL
I know, I typed excluding Bonnie,. I have seen more weather in a kitchen sink.
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18Z GFS looks faster than the previous run.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Don't know if most realise it and I don't mean to be an alarmist, but a serious situation could be developing in the CATL, could be the telltale signs of the season to come, please if you live in the line of fire, BE PREPARED!!!


In addition, if you haven't finished getting your hurricane supplies, ie-water, batteries, etc, etc. now would be a great time to do it when you aren't fighting panicked crowds and low stock.
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Quoting ElConando:


The damage report from Bonnie was 3 fallen palm freons and a 5 foot branch that feel onto the ground in my back yard.


Before posting your exaggerated and sarcastic posts, you should be more serious with what Bonnie did do. During Bonnie, the whole FL. International Airport's power went out causing many delays and loss of revenue. There were also cars damaged by toppling trees. There was probably much more damage reported as well. That was only on the news. It's quite annoying to see people talk about Bonnie as being such a storm with absolutely no meaning. It did cause damage and was quite significant. It was also one of few storms to impact Florida in the year of July. Damage might not have been significant to you, but quite disastrous for other people.
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Quoting ElConando:


The damage report from Bonnie was 3 fallen palm freons and a 5 foot branch that feel onto the ground in my back yard.


It was crazy, I had a palm frond fall off and it literally fell 5 feet from the tree, it was NUTZ man.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
750. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I think we all came to that conclusion this morning.

It was nice to finally have some time to REALLY look at things this morning. That kind of time is hard to come by now days with daughter, wife in college full time and work.
Yeah. Hope everything goes well for you.
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all so i thnk if your going to be a moderate you have to be a long time poster too be a moderate
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
Quoting hydrus:
One slow moving whack with a weak tropical storm could change your little drought situation (excluding Tropical Storm Bonnie)..:)


The damage report from Bonnie was 3 fallen palm freons and a 5 foot branch that feel onto the ground in my back yard.
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Quoting Filibuster:


Thank you, levi. So, for now, you do not see neither a through, an ULL, nor an TUTT, affecting it for noe, correct? Unlike what we saw wiyh bonnie.


There will be the TUTT and likely an ULL in the region but I think this system will be more aligned under the upper ridge between them instead of getting sheared like Bonnie. We'll have to see exactly how upper conditions look by the time this reaches the islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't know if most realise it and I don't mean to be an alarmist, but a serious situation could be developing in the CATL, could be the telltale signs of the season to come, please if you live in the line of fire, BE PREPARED!!!
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744. xcool
hot hot SST IN CAB
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting CybrTeddy:


How could you be a moderator? Don't you have to set up your campaign for President lol.
LOL and he is already Admin's little helper.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Smart man...lol.


I think we all came to that conclusion this morning.

It was nice to finally have some time to REALLY look at things this morning. That kind of time is hard to come by now days with daughter, wife in college full time and work.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
739. xcool
MiamiHurri :) yea
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting CybrTeddy:


How could you be a moderator? Don't you have to set up your campaign for President lol.



thats not in tell 2016
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
Quoting xcool:
Slowly intensifying...
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I just got in my pool. It feels so hot a storm will develop right over the top of it.
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733. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Tazmanian:



and me


How could you be a moderator? Don't you have to set up your campaign for President lol.
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you guys are crazy that low over north africa is a non tropical low and if you look it there most of the time

here is the link
Link
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
Quoting Tazmanian:



and me


Me too! :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


They should seriously get moderators on here rather than just admins to do all the work. Such as StormW and 456.



and me
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
727. xcool
Wave e Caribbean by gfs too
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
The heatwave the souths having will probably warm the GOMEX a lot.
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Lordy,Lordy,,,,,
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Quoting xcool:


The GFS also shows that weak wave in the Caribbean developing. Nice vorticy there.
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Quoting FLdewey:


There is no mod in real time. After (x) number of people minus a comment it's hidden and flagged for review. It's automatic and does not involve the admin.


They should seriously get moderators on here rather than just admins to do all the work. Such as StormW and 456.
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Hey everyone! I just walked in on my teenage son and his friend laughing and saw wunderground open. I noticed I had comments deleted. I don`t know what they said but I apoligize for it!!
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Quoting Bordonaro:

An area of High Pressure is above Ex 90L, protecting it and allowing it to grow!


should be 91L, IMO, 90L dissipated.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Storm write your congressman their stepping all over your 2nd amendment rights. Oh God what is this country coming to. By the why what's your take on 9n 33w.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.