Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800
The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.
A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Morning. :)
I'm going to sleep, but I expect 91L to gradually continue strengthening. We'll see what D-Min does...
Well, actual storm pressure yes. But generally globals dont resolve the absolute lowest pressures due to its' relatively small center in a TC.
Xcool ever sleep?
Thanks. :) scary numbers.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Disturbance Outlook
20:00 PM HST July 31 2010
=====================================
A surface trough located about 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with it. Although upper level winds are currently not conducive for significant development.. these winds may relax slightly over the next couple of days as this system moves westward at 10 MPH
Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================
There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Kinda looked like 8 37 to me. But couldn't tell really.
Fishtaster
You can really see the spin on dvorak loop.
Edit. No clue whats spinning though. :)
XD...
91L looks amazing. Lots of deep convection. I live in South Florida and so naturally the latest ECMWF model run is interesting. Question: How far north has the blob gone? How confident are we that the storm will begin t move northward towards the Northern Leeward islands?
hmmm? Somehow fish taster seems kind of normal? LOL
I'll take anything right now! I'm starving but don't wanna go to the grocery store.
Lol.
I just read this. My family and I were nearly washed away by Katrina in Biloxi. There is a stage 6: why did we stay here and a stage 7: God help us.
oh yes, well in my case it stays there, thanks to the fact that I live in a concrete building in an area that rarely floods.
So far nothing for PR why? The ants are acting normally.
But if in the coming days I see a bunch of ants dancing to Michael Jackson's Thriller you know something is going to happen. LOL!
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE
GULF OF HONDURAS MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W WILL
ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT REACHING ALONG 63W MON...67W
TUE...73W WED...AND AND ALONG 79W THU. LOW PRESSURE WELL E OF
THE AREA WILL MOVE NW REACHING NEAR 17N55W WED AFTERNOON AND
PASS TO THE N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THU WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
looks like maybe 9N 35W, you got to slow the speed of the loop down really slow and watch
Yeah. I see what you're saying. You could be right.
Look at the unenhanced loop. Really looks like a spin on 9/35.
It's August 1st....as Dr. Masters says...the real season begins now.... and it's right on cue.
Well it could be worse- it seems I'm doing size calculations from lat/lon points and a nm-mi calculator
Vorticity
Lol. But at least you know how to figure that out. :) It is strange that it's so big now but the EURO showing a small tight storm. Neither one of those choices are good.
I never said I know how to figure it out LOL you can get distance between two lat/lon points from nhc- its not cheating, its using resources!
"AT 01/00Z THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUN BROUGHT THE AXIS OF THE
NEXT WAVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 05/23Z AND
06/06Z WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND IS
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS THAN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS IT AT 21.3
DEGREES NORTH AT 06/12Z NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER IS GIVING THIS SYSTEM A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS OF 2 AM THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY THAT IT WILL OR WILL NOT DEVELOP AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK
ONCE IT HAS DEVELOPED IF IT DOES SO...BUT EITHER WAY...SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL FALL IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD BRING THEIR
SEASONAL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANES TO COMPLETION SOON. RAINS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK."
Ah I see. I wouldn't have known where to look. Sometimes Google's my friend - sometimes I yell at it because it's sposed to know what I want! Lol.
Yes, especially for a global model, but it is a higher resolution.
I think that's where someone posted the buoy information last night with crazy pressure falls. More there now than then.
Not much anymore its at 14N 46W
Link
Look just east of the islands thats spinning too. Lol.
Viewing: 2551 - 2601
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