Lesser Antilles may see a tropical storm late this week
A concentrated area of intense thunderstorms near 9N 36W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has become more organized this morning. NHC has labeled this system Invest 91L, and is giving it a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 8am Tuesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of 91L to potentially allow further development. The main negatives for development are the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, and the fact that 91L is too close to the Equator to take much advantage of the Earth's spin to get spinning. Last night's ASCAT pass of the region did show a large region of westerly winds south of 91L, indicating that a surface circulation is trying to form. Satellite imagery shows that the intensity and areal extent of 91L's heavy thunderstorms is increasing. However, there are no signs of a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are not apparent yet.
Forecast for 91L
There is strong model support for 91L developing into a tropical depression. The GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all develop 91L into a tropical depression by Tuesday or Wednesday. A west to west-northwest motion is predicted, and residents of the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm arriving in the islands as early as Thursday. It is possible that 91L would pass northeast of the islands, as predicted by the UKMET model, and it is too early to speculate on which of the islands is at most risk. As the storm approaches the Lesser Antilles late this week, 91L will encounter a strong upper-level low pressure system centered north of Puerto Rico. This upper-level low will likely bring high levels of wind shear to the waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Thus, if 91L stays to the south, in the Caribbean, it is far more likely to attain hurricane status than if it pushes north of the Caribbean. As always, long range forecasts of this sort are speculative, and it is too early to reliably say what the long-term risks of 91L becoming a hurricane are. The latest intensity forecast from the SHIPS model shows 91L peaking in strength four days from now, then weakening as it encounters the high wind shear area north of Puerto Rico.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hey buddy, watch out, you have a blogger with a similar name to yours.. Nice image btw, Pretty sure we will have TD4 tomorrow, slight chance late tonight.
they could be doing it right now the 18z is late
Probably won't see a renumber until 4 pm if they upgrade at 5. Probably 11 pm.
WHXX01 KWBC 011908
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1908 UTC SUN AUG 1 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100801 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100801 1800 100802 0600 100802 1800 100803 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 36.3W 10.3N 38.0W 11.0N 40.6W 11.8N 43.5W
BAMD 9.8N 36.3W 10.5N 38.3W 11.4N 40.6W 12.6N 43.1W
BAMM 9.8N 36.3W 10.5N 38.4W 11.5N 41.0W 12.7N 44.0W
LBAR 9.8N 36.3W 10.2N 38.4W 11.0N 41.3W 11.9N 44.6W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 57KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100803 1800 100804 1800 100805 1800 100806 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 46.6W 15.4N 53.6W 18.2N 60.1W 20.7N 65.6W
BAMD 13.9N 45.7W 16.3N 50.5W 18.0N 54.1W 18.8N 56.7W
BAMM 14.3N 47.3W 17.7N 53.8W 20.9N 59.0W 23.8N 62.8W
LBAR 12.8N 48.2W 14.5N 55.0W 19.8N 61.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 67KTS 75KTS 71KTS 66KTS
DSHP 67KTS 75KTS 71KTS 66KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 36.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 35.3W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 34.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 011908
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1908 UTC SUN AUG 1 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100801 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100801 1800 100802 0600 100802 1800 100803 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 36.3W 10.3N 38.0W 11.0N 40.6W 11.8N 43.5W
BAMD 9.8N 36.3W 10.5N 38.3W 11.4N 40.6W 12.6N 43.1W
BAMM 9.8N 36.3W 10.5N 38.4W 11.5N 41.0W 12.7N 44.0W
LBAR 9.8N 36.3W 10.2N 38.4W 11.0N 41.3W 11.9N 44.6W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 57KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100803 1800 100804 1800 100805 1800 100806 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 46.6W 15.4N 53.6W 18.2N 60.1W 20.7N 65.6W
BAMD 13.9N 45.7W 16.3N 50.5W 18.0N 54.1W 18.8N 56.7W
BAMM 14.3N 47.3W 17.7N 53.8W 20.9N 59.0W 23.8N 62.8W
LBAR 12.8N 48.2W 14.5N 55.0W 19.8N 61.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 67KTS 75KTS 71KTS 66KTS
DSHP 67KTS 75KTS 71KTS 66KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 36.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 35.3W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 34.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
whats up jeffy???,its actually looking like it would start to possibly effect fl in 6 or 7 days,so next sat or sun!!!,i have my bottled water 2 cases of mre's,batteries,candles and a battery operated fan,I do not yet have my bat operated digital portable tv,remember everyone with the old portable tv's they will not work since the digital conversion and are essential in knowing whats going on in your area when powers out and their a tc effecting your area!!!
Ah yes..
Our lovely water doggie took this newbie under her paw.
So kind and informatively helpful.
And WU has never been the same.
For better and worse.
Aqua and SSI....
I think only Kirk has successfully delayed shield activation.
But there is plenty of time to STRATEGERIZE our storm JUJU.
-The future of Invest 91L in terms of track and intensity is highly uncertain.
I realize alot of speculation is been throwing around about 91L beyond 1 week. None of this is reliable since alot can happen between now and then. For certain, the islands are of most concern now since its 4 days from us.
i this posted the new update
MARK
10.2N/36.5W
they wait until 55ยบ so it's close enough to fly the planes into, and get back, due to fuel consumption. That's about as far as they can fly out, I think.
91L Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis 1800 UTC
Yes, we in the islands are a little concerned, especially a georges type track.
Yeah and it could get quite close to you over there.
I have 10N-36W.
yes the new T # that this came in is still 1.5
Stay safe my friend and to all those in the path no matter where it goes.
Is that "eye-like" feature the center of circulation?
That is a possibility....GFDL and HWRF hint at that at the very end of their runs as well. The broad weakness in the ridge will almost certainly try to induce a more northerly component to the storm's motion if it gets in there, but the pattern would favor the trough kicking out and weak, flat ridging rushing in behind in time to cut-off the recurve. That's why ultimately, I think this will threaten the US coast, but very hard to say where or how strong at this point. That is still a week or more away.
Hard top say..may be a Cloud dimple,..but its very near the COC .
Time will tell.
do i see a eye
Viewing: 1151 - 1201
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