Lesser Antilles may see a tropical storm late this week
A concentrated area of intense thunderstorms near 9N 36W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has become more organized this morning. NHC has labeled this system Invest 91L, and is giving it a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 8am Tuesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of 91L to potentially allow further development. The main negatives for development are the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, and the fact that 91L is too close to the Equator to take much advantage of the Earth's spin to get spinning. Last night's ASCAT pass of the region did show a large region of westerly winds south of 91L, indicating that a surface circulation is trying to form. Satellite imagery shows that the intensity and areal extent of 91L's heavy thunderstorms is increasing. However, there are no signs of a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are not apparent yet.
Forecast for 91L
There is strong model support for 91L developing into a tropical depression. The GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all develop 91L into a tropical depression by Tuesday or Wednesday. A west to west-northwest motion is predicted, and residents of the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm arriving in the islands as early as Thursday. It is possible that 91L would pass northeast of the islands, as predicted by the UKMET model, and it is too early to speculate on which of the islands is at most risk. As the storm approaches the Lesser Antilles late this week, 91L will encounter a strong upper-level low pressure system centered north of Puerto Rico. This upper-level low will likely bring high levels of wind shear to the waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Thus, if 91L stays to the south, in the Caribbean, it is far more likely to attain hurricane status than if it pushes north of the Caribbean. As always, long range forecasts of this sort are speculative, and it is too early to reliably say what the long-term risks of 91L becoming a hurricane are. The latest intensity forecast from the SHIPS model shows 91L peaking in strength four days from now, then weakening as it encounters the high wind shear area north of Puerto Rico.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well, before that they had names like Easy and Love for storms.
Can't think why that system only lasted 2 or 3 seasons...
How far wrong? Many of the models are over 600miles east of FL. Even if they are all off by a few hundred miles Fl is safe (then maybe SC/NC) could be in its track?
ok, what's the date on that last image, nrtiwl??
Why not?
lol... i like that..
and when will we know that they are right? lol
I dont see the comment I made earlier but I can post it again. I thanked you for the comment ("my young age") but I am over 40....wishing I was younger thou
LOL!!
I am really dissapointed in the Euro so far.
good
Looks reasonable. Very well done. You take into account of the weakness in the ridge (unlike some of our technological friends.) Do you think this is a Florida storm or an East Coast storm?
Do all TCs form one, just to varying potencies?
Or, does it vary based on each individual cyclone and/or atmospheric conditions?
Why does it differ? (As some storms build ones which allow them to intensity whenever they ever feel like it, yet others get ripped apart as soon as they can just smell wind shear.)
You asked nice..it was the least we could do :)
looks reasonable
And before that names of saints. And yeah, I am over 40...like I said, I was just trying to quote what a friend of mine said.
I'm in the cone. Yipee. :D
Depends on how far west it gets. Models still show it moving at least 285-290, and it's not.How do you see it moving ? More westerly ?
7 days... just messin with ya
Much Appreciated......
The Sun is Bright, the Birdies are in Song, and All is Well.
Now, because of the above, I have to go and dig holes (under the Calabash tree, actually), for new Anthurium plants.
But thats not really your fault.
I am under instruction from a Higher Authority. And I know my place.........
Laters.
it's ok, eyewall. I've been under a protective dome since 1964.
A'course, Rainman32's post last night of analogous years and named tracks DID include Dora..
plop. plop. plop...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 40.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 38.0W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 36.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
:-O
"I" names? exactly!! what's up with Igor?? I mean REALLY. Would ANYONE name their child Igor? Does anyone even KNOW an Igor in real life??
They should name the hurricanes after food. Hurricane Pizza, cheeseburger, french fries. I am sure Pizza Hut and McDonalds would agree.
Sitting on the edge of my seat, waiting for Dr. Masters' update.
Oh no!
Working diligently concentrating on the tasks at hand.
What I'm seeing is more 280°
looks due west...
Ha! U got that right! ;)
west
Viewing: 3801 - 3851
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