Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
1724. breald
Quoting Objectivist:

Dr. Masters being the major offender. Sorry, it's the truth. The laughable thing is he's not particularly qualified to discuss the topic. :-)


First, it is Dr M's blog and if he wants to talk about GW then he will.

Second, he is more qualified than most to speak on the subject.
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


then explain the system before bonnie.


Alex formed from a monsoonal trough; way different than RL Colin and Bonnie.
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1722. Dakster
Quoting AussieStorm:
you'll be lucky to a signal of any kind in my outback, satellite phone is best.


LOL..
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hello from denver co
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1720. xcool
sammywammybamy ha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
The AOI near SA is in an ideal environment, the only upper level low influencing this AOI is in the western Caribbean, the ull north of the Antilles is creating an outflow environment for this area.
1718. Drakoen
Radar imagery of the eastern Caribbean disturbance
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30606
1717. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Dakster:


That is weird, although I have had windows updates take out my network connectivity before. (Although the widgets/gadgets wouldn't work)

had me checking my settings but they were fine, i almost scratched a hole on my head trying to figure it out.
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1714. xcool
my head spinright round, right round jfv have two may screen name for me & i 'm sick too. :(
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Coronal mass ejection Wednesday night.
Link
View should be better from higher latitudes but may also be seen at the lower lats.

Here's the news on Colin as of 5 p.m.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 032043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

THE CENTER OF COLIN PASSED NEAR OR OVER THE WOODS HOLE NTAS BUOY ABOUT 15Z...WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. HOWEVER...NEITHER THAT BUOY NOR THE NEARBY NOAA BUOY 41040 REPORTED WINDS SUPPORTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION... AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT IN LOW CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED. BASED ON THIS...COLIN HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.

IN THE SHORT TERM...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE REMNANTS OF COLIN ENCOUNTER WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DISSIPATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEY FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REACH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY DAY 5. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE NEXT 12 HR AND CONTINUE AS A 30 KT REMNANT LOW THROUGH 96 HR. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN EXTREMELY RAPID 285/30. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS MUCH FASTER. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR 96-120 HR FORECASTS WESTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.8N 53.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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1712. gator23
Quoting JenniferGirl:


You're both agreeing on the same thing, aren't you?

i am not quite sure what you are talking about please clarify. You said we are agreeing on the same thing? I was wanting to find out if Colin has been downgraded to a remnant low.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1711. Dakster
Quoting KennyNebraska:
I was very brief two days ago when I said this:

91L would become a Dead Fish!


Of course I am being proved correct.


Where do I send the cookie?
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Anticyclone to the south of Caribbean AOI.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Collin Died, Now the Blog is full of useless Junk.
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting JenniferGirl:


The entire blog was wishcasting before it became TD4, and ever since the last advisory, they've been downcasting. What's up with that?

Not everyone but the so called downcasters from the beginning always get jumped on because they are not forecasting formation. Colin was barely a TS. Did deserve it with the low and the winds but that was it. Never had a true shot to be a major threat.
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hurricane556, I think it is north far enough now that development would be more possible. I think it is developing within the convection. I will be back later.
Quoting DestinJeff:
I can't until I get the Wi-Fi hot spot in my Doom Bunker out back.
you'll be lucky to a signal of any kind in my outback, satellite phone is best.
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StSimonsIslandGAGuy "The NHC was lowballing Colin's speed.
Colin was at 14.2 N / 49.5 W at 11 am
Colin's now at 15.8 N / 53.8 W at 5 pm.
That's 307 miles in 6 hours. 51 mph!
"
1511 Levi32 "That's too high, because they were tracking the mid-level center as of 11am EST and then the low-level center became exposed and it ended up much farther ahead than they thought. That's why the coordinates yield a 51mph speed, but that's inaccurate in reality."

So was the NHC's, probably more so. If TSColin had been running at 35mph, that would mean that the low-level center would have had to have been ~1.5degrees(distance) westnorthwest of the mid-level center. Which is less believable than a 51mph run.
However I believe the NHC gives out the average speed of travel over 12hours. eg Adding together 51mph with 26mph, then dividing by 2 leads to a speed of ~38mph.
ie An above44mph travel speed would yield both a more likely distance for center separation and a less astonishing travel speed. The closer to 51mph, the shorter the initial separation distance between the mid- and low-level centers.

The NHC's habit of averaging speeds and headings over multiple reporting periods rather than releasing their most recent data without informing the casual reader is why I keep posting coordinates to plug into the GreatCircleMapper.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860


yeah. it's really true. crazy, but true. the blog wasn't like this last year during hurricane season. dr. m starts them all up. it is his blog though. there are so many people here so it moves quickly, and i've been visiting this blog for 4 years, so i'd hate to leave and find another blog. so in the meantime, i'm just dealing with the GW stuff. i think that when it gets more active, dr. m may not focus so much on GW??
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
It should have never been classified as a storm to begin with.
Why not? It fit all the criteria at time of classification.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
1702. gator23
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
It should have never been classified as a storm to begin with.

hey where are you located...
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
With the ULL creating a tremendous amount of shear...... I don't see much chance for Colin or the AOI near SA to develop.

Colin is such a small storm, I doubt their will be much left to approach the East Coast..... although the last run of the GFS was somewhat surprising!




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1700. Dakster
Quoting AussieStorm:

I use firefox also. My widgets work but not my browses. very weird.


That is weird, although I have had windows updates take out my network connectivity before. (Although the widgets/gadgets wouldn't work)
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Quoting gator23:

isnt Colin already dead. Its it just a wave now? Did I miss something


You're both agreeing on the same thing, aren't you?
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1698. gator23
Quoting iammothernature:


If you were listening to any of what I was saying at all, you would have known I was never talking about gw. I was talking about how last year humans used 140% of the amount of resources our planet can replenish in a year. This is due to the fact that we are overpopulated, there are too many humans on this earth. So, I brought up population control. And some other user thought it would be a better idea for us to all become self sufficient and grow our own food, not realizing just how impossible this is.

On a side note I am knew to posting here on this blog, but I have been to many other forums and posted there. But I am quite disappointed with what I have seen so far at this blog. I can't even hold an argument with someone because they are to stuck up and stubborn to realize and listen what I am saying. I realize most of you just want to talk about the tropics all day, but the few people who I have engaged in an argument with over GW or overpopulation, its embarrassing at the very least.

dont bother argueing with her, I have her on my ignore list. Never-mind that the book he wrote was a long time ago and he was being theoretical. I bet truecajun fell for the death panel crap too.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting psuweathernewbie:


Pressures around 1008mb according to this obs, indicating falling pressures and developing surface low?


a surface low could be possibly developing. this would show that the low is very near south america and would need to lift further north to really develop.
Member Since: July 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
I was very brief two days ago when I said this:

91L would become a Dead Fish!


Of course I am being proved correct.
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Quoting aquak9:
fatlady- this year I gathered all my own seeds for next year. Had an amazing garden, all heirloom. I'll never use hybrids again.


I've never done that. Good for you! We had the best Matt's Wild Cherry Tomatoes in 2004/2005. They are an heirloom from Mexico, and they just loved the Hurricanes! The more they got blown around, the more little tomatoes they made. And lasted till after Xmas.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
It should have never been classified as a storm to begin with.


The entire blog was wishcasting before it became TD4, and ever since the last advisory, they've been downcasting. What's up with that?
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Quoting SeniorPoppy:
Quoting: TankHead93

Yeah, you'll say that if it was blatantly clear that it was going to regenerate. It's natural for you to say that because you are an extreme downcaster.

I can speak for myself. Keep wish-casting and it might come true. The last few systems have died off to hostile conditions. They were too much for Bonnie to handle and Colin raced into oblivion. How is that being a down-caster? It's just the facts.



then explain the system before bonnie.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Quoting Dakster:


No problems here, I woke up and computer had rebooted and worked fine... Maybe because I use firefox?

I use firefox also. My widgets work but not my browses. very weird.
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Quoting hurricane556:
Bonaire:

6 PM (22) Aug 03 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.77 (1008) ENE 7
5 PM (21) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) ENE 6
4 PM (20) Aug 03 87 (31) 78 (26) 29.80 (1009) NW 2
3 PM (19) Aug 03 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.83 (1010) Calm
2 PM (18) Aug 03 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) E 8 heavy rain
1 PM (17) Aug 03 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ESE 9 rain
Noon (16) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 12
11 AM (15) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 13
10 AM (14) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 12
9 AM (13) Aug 03 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 8


Pressures around 1008mb according to this obs, indicating falling pressures and developing surface low?
1690. gator23
Quoting atmosweather:
The demise of Colin in a picture:


isnt Colin already dead. Its it just a wave now? Did I miss something
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting Objectivist:

Dr. Masters being the major offender. Sorry, it's the truth. The laughable thing is he's not particularly qualified to discuss the topic. :-)
Yes , but im sure he is more qualified than most people here and have the right to do in his blog what he pleases. Those of you that doesn't like or agree with the topic,well... like they say, "love it or leave it."
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Aussie, I had problems, and had to do a quick-fingered shutdown and restart for it to recognise my settings.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
1687. Dakster
Quoting Objectivist:

Dr. Masters being the major offender. Sorry, it's the truth. The laughable thing is he's not particularly qualified to discuss the topic. :-)


I respectfully disagree with you. Now, whether I agree with his analysis and conclusions is another story... And he does cite respected and qualified scientists in his articles, which are well written, IMHO.
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Is it me or does the area in the Caribbean and the area behind Colin look more impressive then Colin?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
The demise of Colin in a picture:

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There is currently organization occurring in the Caribbean Sea that is worth talking about.
It should have never been classified as a storm to begin with.
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Bonaire:

6 PM (22) Aug 03 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.77 (1008) ENE 7
5 PM (21) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) ENE 6
4 PM (20) Aug 03 87 (31) 78 (26) 29.80 (1009) NW 2
3 PM (19) Aug 03 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.83 (1010) Calm
2 PM (18) Aug 03 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) E 8 heavy rain
1 PM (17) Aug 03 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ESE 9 rain
Noon (16) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 12
11 AM (15) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 13
10 AM (14) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 12
9 AM (13) Aug 03 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 8
Member Since: July 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
This is not just a tropical blog. There are other blogs dedicated to the tropics on the home page but you all just assume because Dr. Masters updates when there are tropical events that it is a tropical blog. This blog is on the front page not just the tropical page. It is called wunderblog not tropical blog. If he writes about a certain topic it should be fair game for people to comment on that.


Good point !!
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Quoting: TankHead93

Yeah, you'll say that if it was blatantly clear that it was going to regenerate. It's natural for you to say that because you are an extreme downcaster.

I can speak for myself. Keep wish-casting and it might come true. The last few systems have died off to hostile conditions. They were too much for Bonnie to handle and Colin raced into oblivion. How is that being a down-caster? It's just the facts.

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1677. aquak9
fatlady- this year I gathered all my own seeds for next year. Had an amazing garden, all heirloom. I'll never use hybrids again.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26252
Quoting ATipsyPenguin:
Hey guys, I have a quick question that is actually related to the blog.. Can someone answer?

I haven't looked at the model runs since early this morning, and I just saw the 18Z BAM models, which bring Colin towards the east coast of Florida. I was just wondering if any of the weather knowledgeable on this blog foresee this as a trend that the other models will follow, or are the BAM's simply outliers at this point? I'm assuming that the BAM's are only showing that track because they are projecting a slower approach for Colin, which would bring him near the coast AFTER the trough passes on Friday, and thus when ridging is back-building towards the east? That's the only way I'd foresee a track such as the one the BAM models provide. Any insight would be appreciated. Thanks!


I wouldn't be worried about Colin in the long range. Its got issues to deal with in the short range. Its a fragile system moving really fast to the WNW, and I have just looked at the water vapor imagery which shows that its catching up to an upper-level low to the NW. If it does, westerly shear will begin to disrupt the remnant of Colin, and it may not make it at all to the SE US as anything signficant if its still in existence by then.

Another thing that may happen is that some remnant survives the shear, and then it tries to redevelop in lower shear as a deep-layered ridge emerges from the eastern US. Its really hard to tell now. Lets see if it survives the shear first.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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