Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1759. Grothar
Quoting xcool:
Grothar .dam that meaning :( lol


xcool, you can insult me anytime you want! You are the best mapper on here. Any time I have asked you for one, you never fail. Still dont' know where the heck you find them so fast.
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Quoting swflurker:
Lookin for a link to the Bermuda radar.
Any help?


here you go! http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp
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1757. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


I was practicing my best JFV Spanish. You know my Spanish is perfect. LOL Can't you hire out and get someone to do that for you? Amazing what one can collect, isn't it?


Once Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie adopt me maybe. XD LOL!
And yep, i'm amazed at the stuff I had accumulated. :\
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Quoting NotJFV:

EXACTLY
I am not sure but I know you don't want to be one.
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1755. BDAwx
Quoting swflurker:
Lookin for a link to the Bermuda radar.
Any help?

Link
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1754. xcool
TampaSpin okay lol dam english sucks wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1753. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:


todo bien :D

Was cleaning in my room today, jeez, I had never thrown away so much stuff. XD

Tomorrow got other rooms to clean, yesterday did my mom's, then once the house is squeaky clean its the backyard's and outside closet turn.
You guys wont see me on during the day for a few days. :S


I was practicing my best JFV Spanish. You know my Spanish is perfect. LOL Can't you hire out and get someone to do that for you? Amazing what one can collect, isn't it?
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1751. xcool
Grothar .dam that meaning :( lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1750. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Yo JLPR! Long time no see. Es todo bueno?


todo bien :D

Was cleaning in my room today, jeez, I had never thrown away so much stuff. XD

Tomorrow got other rooms to clean, yesterday did my mom's, then once the house is squeaky clean its the backyard's and outside closet turn.
You guys wont see me on during the day for a few days. :S
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1749. Grothar
Quoting xcool:
lol


Just because you are under 90, xcool, there is no reason to laugh at old people. LOL. Just keep posting your maps.
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Lookin for a link to the Bermuda radar.
Any help?
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1746. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:


Groth did you get mixed up and say tropics...and ment topics......LOL


The implication would apply to both, I would guess. Funny, I knew you were going to say that!!!!
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1745. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:


Cause my luck is awesome and I need pretty and sunny clear days to clean and paint in the house. LOL!


Yo JLPR! Long time no see. Es todo bueno?
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Quoting Grothar:


Couldn't help myself T. Sometimes you just got to jump in and join the fun. Seems as if everyone got tired of fighting and retired for the evening. How you been. Enjoying the tropics as usual?


Groth did you get mixed up and say tropics...and ment topics......LOL
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1742. JLPR2
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:


WHY THERE'S NO HURRICANE OVER PR??? >:@


Cause my luck is awesome and I need pretty and sunny clear days to clean and paint in the house. LOL!
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1741. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:
Grothar i be dang if you show up and start problems for everyone also....LOL.....cause your an old fart too......LOL


Couldn't help myself T. Sometimes you just got to jump in and join the fun. Seems as if everyone got tired of fighting and retired for the evening. How you been. Enjoying the tropics as usual?
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1740. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Grothar i be dang if you show up and start problems for everyone also....LOL.....cause your an old fart too......LOL
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1738. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


Evening Grothar.


Hey, Canes! What do you think of 93L? If that is a bust, there is plenty more coming.

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Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Teddy. I know you are fine, how am I???
You'll have to ask one of out newest members.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Teddy. I know you are fine, how am I???


Evening Grothar.
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Quoting AllStar17:
The center of Colin is now under the deep convection (western edge).

Now we shall see if it remains that way. If it does, conditions have indeed become more favorable for intensification.


It appears it will stay that way... in fact... it will probably get pulled even deeper into the convection.... and I think its time for colin to start its intensification
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The center of Colin is now under the deep convection (western edge).

Now we shall see if it remains that way. If it does, conditions have indeed become more favorable for intensification.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Recon. en route to Colin.

Judging by satellite imagery, I'd expect them to find a stronger system.


I agree... it has much better satellite presentation tonight... as expected...
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Recon. en route to Colin.

Judging by satellite imagery, I'd expect them to find a stronger system.
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SAL seems alot smaller now then it did a few weeks ago

Link

Once 93L pulls through I'd expect the CV storms to have a better chance then Colin and 93L have had.
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1730. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Evening Grothar,


Yo, Teddy. I know you are fine, how am I???
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After struggling during the day today, the wave behind 93L is starting to re-organize and does have potential to become a tropical cyclone down the road.

Colin, and 3 areas of disturbed weather.

Tropics sure are active.
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Evening Grothar,
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1727. Grothar
Looks like they are all on a roll tonight, folks!!!
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1726. robj144
Quoting PsychicMaria:


Not quite, Robert. A statistical chance of 90% is far too high, though of course, these locations are most definitely feasible locations for hurricane hits, so I understand your doubt. I will attempt to further satisfy you.

As noted from the forecast map, the storm to affect Florida this month, will be affecting the WHOLE EAST COAST, primarily from the Jupiter Inlet northward. This storm will also be traveling up the U.S. East Coast, greatly impacting the entire coast of South Carolina/North Carolina. In addition to this August storm, a strong Gulf system will strike the Panhandle, just East of Pensecola, with devastating erosion to Santa Rosa Island.

Exact locations for September have not entered my extrasensory perception, however broad locations have, as noted in my previous posting.
Quoting PsychicMaria:


Not quite, Robert. A statistical chance of 90% is far too high, though of course, these locations are most definitely feasible locations for hurricane hits, so I understand your doubt. I will attempt to further satisfy you.

As noted from the forecast map, the storm to affect Florida this month, will be affecting the WHOLE EAST COAST, primarily from the Jupiter Inlet northward. This storm will also be traveling up the U.S. East Coast, greatly impacting the entire coast of South Carolina/North Carolina. In addition to this August storm, a strong Gulf system will strike the Panhandle, just East of Pensecola, with devastating erosion to Santa Rosa Island.

Exact locations for September have not entered my extrasensory perception, however broad locations have, as noted in my previous posting.


Actually of the last 27 named storms to strike the US, 25 have struck the Carolinas, the Gulf Coast, or Florida. So, in recent history (I would argue it's pretty close to global history too, but don't have the statistics.) the percentage is actually 92.5%.
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1725. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1724. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting CybrTeddy:


post 1240.


WHY THERE'S NO HURRICANE OVER PR??? >:@
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Uh compared to Rita, Katrina, Ike, oh I could go on and on..it was ragged. Go look at the loop from beginning to end. It finally showed up at the end. And even at that point it wasn't that impressive looking. I don't really know who you are, but I have seen your posts and it seems like you like to start drama. I will just ask nicely if you please do not respond to anything I say on here. I am not here for the drama...just good convo, to learn, and to maybe make some friends. Thanks.


Well, not trying to start anything, but after Ike crossed Cuba it seemed more ragged then Alex- but then again Alex stregthened alot before landfall while Ike was 'fear-casted' to become alot stronger then it did. On US landfall I would almost say Ike was a disapointment- not that it was I went through it and alot of my fellow Texans were greatly affected but considering what Ike could've become it was a blessing. Also you can't really pair Alex with Katrina or Rita, which were once in a lifetime events (hopefully) while Alex was just a classical looking hurricane at landfall. But I do agree during most of Alex's life it didn't look amazing, but most storms don't.
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Even at peak intensity, Ike wasn't exactly a 'beautiful' looking hurricane (if you can call a hurricane like Ike that) there was some pretty substantial shear impacting the northern quadrant of Ike. What was impressive about Ike and Alex wasn't their structures and winds (Alex was a very impressive system for June however) it was more so that they where so HUGE.

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1720. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1719. aquak9
(peeks in, looks around)

There's not enough popcorn in all the world for this place!

(heads to walmart for 'hood night)
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Uh compared to Rita, Katrina, Ike, oh I could go on and on..it was ragged. Go look at the loop from beginning to end. It finally showed up at the end. And even at that point it wasn't that impressive looking. I don't really know who you are, but I have seen your posts and it seems like you like to start drama. I will just ask nicely if you please do not respond to anything I say on here. I am not here for the drama...just good convo, to learn, and to maybe make some friends. Thanks.


Ike was a fairly ragged looking hurricane for most of its run. Just before landfall and when it hit peak intensity it looked pretty impressive.
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1717. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTER
11:00 AM PhST August 7 2010
=============================================

Tropical Depression Ester has slowed down and remains a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Ester located at 19.3°N 123.0°E or 160 km southeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Signal Warning #1
=================

Luzon Region
-------------
1.Cagayan
2.Apayao
3.Kalinga
4.Abra
5.Ilocos Norte
6.Ilocos Sur
7.Northern Isabela
8.Batanes
9.Babuyan
10.Calayan Island

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Depression "Ester" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over the Western section of the country.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the Western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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1715. robj144
Quoting PsychicMaria:


Not quite, Robert. A statistical chance of 90% is far too high, though of course, these locations are most definitely feasible locations for hurricane hits, so I understand your doubt. I will attempt to further satisfy you.

As noted from the forecast map, the storm to affect Florida this month, will be affecting the WHOLE EAST COAST, primarily from the Jupiter Inlet northward. This storm will also be traveling up the U.S. East Coast, greatly impacting the entire coast of South Carolina/North Carolina. In addition to this August storm, a strong Gulf system will strike the Panhandle, just East of Pensecola, with devastating erosion to Santa Rosa Island.

Exact locations for September have not entered my extrasensory perception, however broad locations have, as noted in my previous posting.


Fair enough... I'll be watching closely.
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Quoting BradentonBrew:
Local TV (Sarasota, FL) mentioned a tropical system developing in the GOM, just west of Tampa and drifting westward. Can anybody advise on this and are any long-range models picking this up?


Yes, the ECMWF is hinting at it. But only hinting.
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1713. BDAwx
Quoting BahaHurican:
Close to midnight? Yeah sounds about right. I know they will fly as long as the controllers think it's OK. When are TS force winds supposed to begin impacting BDA? I know BDAwx was talking about 3-5 foot seas since this p.m......


I talked to BWS director Dr. Guishard a while ago about the airport and what it would take to close/cancel flights. Turns out the wind speed isn't what matters so much as the direction in this decision.

BWS is also saying that Tropical Storm force winds should commence around noon give or take a few hours. But the worst of it would be around mindight Saturday give or take.

Water was covering halfway up the beach along south shore around 530pm. High tide + high surf? I'm not sure. But I'm sure its worse by now. A few showers came through just before midnight tonight but they were generally light and so were the winds.
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Quoting BradentonBrew:


It was ABC40. They mentioned it and showed it on their futurecast thingamajigger as well. Developing Sunday and bringing rain on Sunday and Monday before drifting west. Just wondered if any long range models had this stalling and coming back or what? But apparently, it must just be them at this point. They didn't have a label on their graphic.


There does appear to be some added shower activity that does develop from the stalled trough but, that is all i see for Sunday..
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Quoting btwntx08:

alex was NOT ragged at all...someone posted the same thing as well


Uh compared to Rita, Katrina, Ike, oh I could go on and on..it was ragged. Go look at the loop from beginning to end. It finally showed up at the end. And even at that point it wasn't that impressive looking. I don't really know who you are, but I have seen your posts and it seems like you like to start drama. I will just ask nicely if you please do not respond to anything I say on here. I am not here for the drama...just good convo, to learn, and to maybe make some friends. Thanks.
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Quoting robj144:
Psychicmaria - Can you be any more specific then? Maybe an exact location. Saying a hurricane will strike Florida, the Carolinas, or the Gulf Coast is pretty much following statistics. If a hurricane were to hit the US, there's a 90% chance of it hitting one of those areas you just mentioned.


Not quite, Robert. A statistical chance of 90% is far too high, though of course, these locations are most definitely feasible locations for hurricane hits, so I understand your doubt. I will attempt to further satisfy you.

As noted from the forecast map, the storm to affect Florida this month, will be affecting the WHOLE EAST COAST, primarily from the Jupiter Inlet northward. This storm will also be traveling up the U.S. East Coast, greatly impacting the entire coast of South Carolina/North Carolina. In addition to this August storm, a strong Gulf system will strike the Panhandle, just East of Pensecola, with devastating erosion to Santa Rosa Island.

Exact locations for September have not entered my extrasensory perception, however broad locations have, as noted in my previous posting.
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1709. EricSFL
Quoting TampaSpin:
The NOGAP model still has 93L moving nearly due West.......HUM....NOGAP model is a very conservative model which rarely show much unless something is there and present. Just sayin.


IMO all the NOGAPS does is continuously develop systems off the coast of Nicaragua.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.