Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 20N34W 14N37W 7N41W...MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. BROAD SURFACE/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ho77yw00d:



MH09 you are very respected on here and I just want to say that your very knowledgeable and I respect your input and I thank you for helping when I have questions.. oh sorry for quoting but I had to... I dont like people talking about you like that!! you really are great your always on and you help us strangers at your age that speaks volumes!!!
Don't worry bout' it. I poof and move on. Thanks by the way.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
ve

000
WTNT44 KNHC 070240
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010


COLIN IS A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. THIS COULD GIVE AN IMPRESSION
OF A STRONGER CYCLONE BUT FLUCTUATIONS IN CONVECTION ARE TYPICAL IN
SHEARED SYSTEMS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE
CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY SEPARATE THE CENTER FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AGAIN SOON. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
40 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK COLIN IN SEVERAL
HOURS. COLIN HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO GATHER SOME
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IN FACT...IF THE CURRENT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION CONTINUES OR PERSIST IT COULD MEAN THAT THE SHEAR IS
ALREADY RELAXING AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ABOUT TO BEGIN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX A BIT AND CALLS
FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. BY 96 HOURS...COLIN SHOULD BE
EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE. THE
INTENSIFICATION SHOWN IN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS OCCURS LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE REALISTIC BECAUSE
BY THEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHING COOLER WATERS AND
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

THE CENTER IS CLEARLY OBSERVED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
AND ONE CAN OBTAIN A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION...WHICH IS
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. COLIN IS ALREADY ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS NEARING THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS PACKED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE ENVELOPE. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS IN THE FORWARD SPEED SHOWN BY
VARIOUS MODELS...BUT THIS MOSTLY OCCUR AT THE LONG RANGE AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 29.1N 66.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 30.3N 66.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 32.0N 65.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 33.7N 64.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 36.5N 63.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 42.0N 57.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 49.5N 46.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23564
1506. gator23
hello all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1504. 7544
we need another invest these are boring everyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
In all honestly you aren't making it any better by re-posting all of his comments.



MH09 you are very respected on here and I just want to say that your very knowledgeable and I respect your input and I thank you for helping when I have questions.. oh sorry for quoting but I had to... I dont like people talking about you like that!! you really are great your always on and you help us strangers at your age that speaks volumes!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Drop it... get a life or learn where the ignore button is... your getting worse then a troll.


I'm done.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23564
1501. cartmin
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Getting some nice gusts on the tail end of this bow echo moving through- 25-40mph or so. It's putting on a nice light show, too.


Its really lighting up over on HHI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Right, I'm done. Just wanted to vent is all.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23564
1498. EricSFL
Oh Lord, just came in here to get an update on the THREE systems on the Atlantic and all I see is pure controversial drama.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1497. will45
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
In all honestly you aren't making it any better by re-posting all of his comments.


he is making it much worse time to move on
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Let's resort to this again. If you're interested in talking about the tropics feel free to head over to my blog. It will be moderated.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
09 do you have any thing new too re port on 93L?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh no, this is just about what it was like to blog on here in 2007 and 2008.


I don't think it's so much a difference in the post quality, but the quantity...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh no, this is just about what it was like to blog on here in 2007 and 2008.
In all honestly you aren't making it any better by re-posting all of his comments.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Hey Orca, see you swimming around!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Getting some nice gusts on the tail end of this bow echo moving through- 25-40mph or so. It's putting on a nice light show, too.




Yea, we just went through that here in Charleston. Almost 5 inches of rain today at the airport. I was on every 10 minutes tonight - every county at one point in our viewing area was under a T-storm warning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


Thanks. Someone needs to start a dictionary of "blog words". :)


Sounds like another task for Zooooo ;)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's getting out of control now.


Oh no, this is just about what it was like to blog on here in 2007 and 2008.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23564
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This blog has turned into a laughing stock.


I'm pretty disappointed. I've been here (lurking) since 2006
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Lets go on..

67. STORMTOP 3:49 PM GMT on September 21, 2005 Hide this comment.
KS hurricane get the hell out of there while you can its stupid to think houston will be spared...you are playing russian roulette staying there i know i went what you guys are fixing to go through,...GET OUT!!!!!!!!!!


Last I checked, Rita didn't devastate Houston.




Drop it... get a life or learn where the ignore button is... your getting worse then a troll.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:


It's hurrkat. Just press MINUS and it will be done. Any blog this size will get its fair share of trolls, its to be expected.


Do like I did weeks ago- hit ignore and forget all your worries.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:


It's hurrkat. Just press MINUS and it will be done. Any blog this size will get its fair share of trolls, its to be expected.
It's getting out of control now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1481. Relix
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This blog has turned into a laughing stock.


It's hurrkat. Just press MINUS and it will be done. Any blog this size will get its fair share of trolls, its to be expected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cloudy0day:
1384. BahaHurican 1:55 AM GMT on August 07,2010

Back on the 7/24 my Trend Micro found the JS_Webstart virus while I was blogging here.
Thanks. I haven't seen any reactions and I'm in the blog almost daily. This came up on the Norton website.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21458
Getting some nice gusts on the tail end of this bow echo moving through- 25-40mph or so. It's putting on a nice light show, too.


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1475. robj144
Quoting zoomiami:
Rob: downcasting is a blog word that is used for someone who is always pessimistic about the chances of something forming.


Thanks. Someone needs to start a dictionary of "blog words". :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi RMM, haven't seen you in a while.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
Funny, I just went over to the tropics chat. Try that and you won't have any skin on your knuckles!
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IN, and out, lol.

Is it the 15th yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rob: downcasting is a blog word that is used for someone who is always pessimistic about the chances of something forming.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
Lets go on..

67. STORMTOP 3:49 PM GMT on September 21, 2005 Hide this comment.
KS hurricane get the hell out of there while you can its stupid to think houston will be spared...you are playing russian roulette staying there i know i went what you guys are fixing to go through,...GET OUT!!!!!!!!!!


Last I checked, Rita didn't devastate Houston.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23564
Evening all. I posted an entry on my blog about the classifications of the storms now vs. 2005. Take a look and see what you think.

The basis of this was Dr. Masters comment about the number of named storms in 1995 and 2005 vs this year. It made me wonder about the debate that goes on regarding the standards for classifications then and now.

I believe that storms were more likely in the past to be named then they are now. I also think that this has a lot to do with the technology that is available now, and with the fact that the forecasters have a much better idea of what will eventually form, and what does not form.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS WHICH
COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE MID
AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. 12Z GFS SOLUTION KEEPS MAIN
PORTION OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAND...ROTATING LOW
NORTHWESTWARD OVER GEORGIA...AND IT EVENTUALLY GETS CAUGHT UP IN
THE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 12Z EURO ROTATES IT ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF...WITH UPPER REFLECTION NEAR
MOBILE WEDNESDAY. NEITHER MODEL CARRYING SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CIRCULATION. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN EURO. FOR
NOW...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE
GFS. THIS PROVIDES SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS THAN THE EURO SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOT QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER THIS
WEEK...BUT STILL RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE. 35

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93L is projected to go out to sea but it is not even that strong yet so wouldn't it stay low and keep heading west?
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Ok. Enough! Let's get back to the tropics.

Satellite imagery suggests that upper level conditions are indeed becoming more favorable for Colin. Currently Colin is in the process of developing a CDO, which of course is an indication of a intensifying system. Now take a look at water vapor. You can tell that the TUTT fractured into 2 ULL's ones stationary over the Bahamas while the other is backing off towards the NE. This will allow for ridging to develop in the upper levels, allowing for favorable upper level conditions, thus propelling Colin to intensify.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting PtownBryan:
I am starting to feel this year is going to be a bust. Waves are slow to develop, keep encountering too much dry air and shear, and take forever to get where they are going(just threw that in cause it is annoying! lol). Wonder if we will even have one decent looking storm this year. Alex was the best of course by far but even Alex was ragged.


Alex caused 1.88 billion dollars in damage, and was the second deepest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic ever recorded in the month of June. It was by no means 'ragged'
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23564
1460. robj144
Quoting SLU:


lol. talk about wishful downcasting.


I've asked this question before and it did not get a response. What is downcasting? The only time I have ever heard the word was in the context of computer programming. Is it an actual word, or a "blog word"?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.