Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow
A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.
Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.
93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.
Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.
Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.
Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.
Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.
Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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only 1.9 wind gusts at that buoy also
Location: 28.3°N 66.8°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Keep in mind its daily 2mb diurnal swing is just now heading down towards its minimum and the overall pressure trend is not that impressive...pretty flat.
you can see that vary well here its all so moveing due N vary slow
you can see the tight turning
Link
09 what you think ???
The upper level low to the west of 92L shouldn't have too much impact on movement, should it? I've always been under the impression that upper lows do not impact movement.
If it's only a 200mb low, then no not usually. If it extends down to 500mb then it can impact movement.
Didn't it end up just brushing by? I remember the intensity as it was moving up, and then it skirted the island.
no
see my post be low
the center of 92L have in fac refrom
you can see that vary well here its all so moveing due N vary slow
you can see the tight turning
Link
We may very well see 92L apply the brakes this evening... The steering in the NW Caribbean has weakened, and it should progress slowly towards WNW... It will be very interesting indeed, if a well defined LLC forms underneath the heavier convection tonight.
Mid-level.
And that even works for Florida storms...
850mb and 700mb yes but not 500mb which extends north into the area of spinning on satellite imagery, suggesting that it is mid-level.
it has
look at my post be low
the center of 92L have in fac refrom
you can see that vary well here its all so moveing due N vary slow
you can see the tight turning
Link
the maps has not been update yet the the center has refrom
the center of 92L have in fac refrom
you can see that vary well here its all so moveing due N vary slow
you can see the tight turning
Link
If the system in fact develops a CoC around there--17.2/82.5--it most likely will have a chance to become something before rolling up onto the Mexican sands. OTOH, if the center stays way to the southwest where the experts have it pegged for the moment, it won't have nearly enough time to do much of anything. Either way, though, it will have the chance to feast on an area of water with very high TCHP. Interesting, to be sure...
I think many of us are watching and waiting and as we get nervous, we start to make more of the threat areas. So you don't think 92L has any shot of forming and getting far enough North to be a hurricane in the GOM a few days out?
To come far enough north to be a threat in the gulf it would have had to develop a couple days ago and be a strengthening tropical cyclone right now. I can't give it zero chance because of the nice cloud signature, but I think it's highly unlikely we see anything out of it before it runs into central America.
but do you think the center has in fac refrom???
Can anyone recommend a learning site that's a little more advanced than the JetStream site? I'd be especially interested in gaining a better understanding of the many different maps and charts that are posted here daily.
The NHC seems to have basically aced the track of Alex Bonnie and Collin so far, no major changes like Ivan of 2004.
Ike closes in on Galveston
Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:12 PM CDT on September 12, 2008
Have you noticed how the 850mb and 700mb vort has moved NNW most of the day and appears to be attempting a realignment with the 500mb vort?
hi with the center refroming a round 18N it would put 92L more time overe water
I saw for August 20- something, the GFS had a pretty monster hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic. It's long long away but just a sign of an increase of activity...
Viewing: 701 - 751
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