Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Damn, you post an honest opinion here whether you're right or wrong and you're labelled a "wishcaster" or you're jumped on like tics on a bull by some! To be quite honest I'm getting fed up and disheartened by this blog, I don't put anyone on ignore, personally I think what everyone has to say is valid, if I don't agree well just overlook it and move on, if you put everyone on ignore then you'd soon only be looking at your comments, probably agreeing and smiling all day long. A good decent opinionated debate is what this blog should be about, not who's right or wrong, time and a little patience will us that, Have a good evening & night everyone!
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Colin coming into view.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting BaltOCane:


I'm over 21 :)


im wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy over 21 lol
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Quoting will45:


some here wouldnt be allowed in a tavern


I'm over 21 :)... but far far away from said tavern
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
Quoting Grothar:


Speak for yourself. LOL


haha yeah yeah. whats up stranger?

weather warm enough?
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Quoting Grothar:


Speak for yourself. LOL


you tooooooooooooooooooooo old lmao

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i have one question why do people come on here and ask dumb questions when they already know the answer there is not going to be a tropical anything in the gulf tomorrow
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Quoting tornadodude:


or arent old enough (;


Speak for yourself. LOL
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Quoting tornadodude:


or arent old enough (;


that was my point
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Quoting will45:


some here wouldnt be allowed in a tavern


or arent old enough (;
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy. Still only .15 at my house in 12 days but that appears to be changing in a huge way as the NWS is we could pick 4 plus inches of rain over the next few days area wide.

Afternoon Jeff, been awhile,i am lucky i have gotten 1.79 since the 1st of aug and might get some to day. its dark outside. All the storms are comming of the gulf now they were comming from over your area.
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A possible mid level circulation near 86W and between 17-18N. The low level circulation appears to be removed to the southeast towards the NE Honduras coastline.
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Hi All, Need rain on the East Coast of FL....may get some this weekend..who knows?
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Quoting palmasdelrio:


I'm sorry. I'm new to this and I don't comment too much. I just like to be informed with all the information that is posted.

sent you wu mail.
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Levi you on?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Looking at this map, it looks like the models have shifted to the north, in line with my thinking. Anyone else disagree on the models shifting to the north since 12Z?
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I just got back on and I have a question if the HH found max winds on invest 93 of 55mph why hasnt it become tropical storm Danielle

also, where can I find model support for that L that is suppost to be near FLA? going to ocala for the weekend then back to Fort myers so I just want to know what kind of weather I am facing?

thanks
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Quoting Snowlover123:


NC Hurricane 2009, I think you're seeing the outflow. I see no COC near Honduras. The Invest is about 50 miles north of there, and is heading to the NW. I also disagree with Taz's map, although it is closer to where I would intepret the COC is. I would initialize the COC about 20-30 miles west, of what Taz has.


Mmmmm, ah ha!!! Okay I see it where you see it now. Is it at 85W, 17.2N at this very moment? That's west of Taz's center location.

Also, that major upper trough/low over the NE US and E Canada that's supposed to bend the track of Colin NEward later, isn't that trough causing a low-level ridge weakness along the Gulf coast of the US? That would keep 92L somewhat WNW to NW, with a bend back to the west once it emerges in the SW Gulf of Mexico/northern Bay of Campeche once the weakness passes off to the east. Is that what you are seeing with regards to steering? Does anyone have a 700-850 mb steering map right now?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Death toll over 4,800 in Moscow alone in July.


WOW, all that death from heat of 102? Amazing and sad!
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92L remains disorganized still and is running out of time tonight. I don't see this developing much before the Yucatan peninsula.
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Not many folks at Henry's on Magazine..yet.

2 more here please..
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Before I post my opnion on the steering of 92L, I want to know if you have an idea of why you think this would take a path similar to Alex/TD2 (that is, if it develops). I think that is possible as well, just want to see if your thoughts are similar to mine.


NCHurricane2009,

The reasoning? It is taking a similar track, first of all, and the area where it will make landfall is further north of Alex, but slightly further south of TD 2. The trajectory of the invest is also further north than Alex (Alex came in moving to the WNW) but the trajetory is slightly south of where the Depression came in (moving to the NNW.) Another thing to look at, is the steering currents. The steering currents show that this has ample opportunity to hit Texas, but a building ridge will halt it going too far north. However; 92L has picked up speed, and a landfall n North Mexico/South texas looks likely to me. ;)
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Quoting BaltOCane:


I'm sure someone on this blog is at that very tavern, spreading rumors, LOL!


some here wouldnt be allowed in a tavern
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If you go on to the view of Europe on ecmwf, around about the 13th of August something which looks like a tropical storm comes into view. Has anyone noticed this?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
My neighbor just got back from the corner tavern. He said there is a buzz about a brewing hurricane entering the Gulf. I had planned on going bird watching tomorrow. Should I cancel?


I'm sure someone on this blog is at that very tavern, spreading rumors, LOL!
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
Hi Kerry,

Though there's some speculation about trouble next week, tomorrow should be OK.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Im Sorry I cracked, these people are crazy


That's okay. :)
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Hmm, This Skeetobite weather site is useful because it's got an easy interface, but it's confusing. For example, this appears to be 92L, but it's mislabeled I think... Am I missing something?

Possible 92L

If true, I don't really like the GFDL track.

If this is a wrong post, I'm sorry for any confusion. Can someone point me to a better model site?
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Quoting BigTuna:

Thanks to you and BahaHurican both! I've lurked here for several years and picked up just enough good info to be dangerous.

wow good site, thanks!!
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I'm sorry Taz, trying to see your center of circulation in visible satellite animation. I see more rotation right along the north coast of Honduras. Plus, all the curved cloud bands are concentring with respect to the north coast of Hondruas, which would seem to also point that the center is along the north coast of Honduras.



that could be a ULL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
Quoting Snowlover123:
Good Evening!

In my opinion, I think that the models are too far south for 92L. A path similar to Alex and TD2 is what I'm thinking.



Before I post my opnion on the steering of 92L, I want to know if you have an idea of why you think this would take a path similar to Alex/TD2 (that is, if it develops). I think that is possible as well, just want to see if your thoughts are similar to mine.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I'm sorry Taz, trying to see your center of circulation in visible satellite animation. I see more rotation right along the north coast of Honduras. Plus, all the curved cloud bands are concentring with respect to the north coast of Hondruas, which would seem to also point that the center is along the north coast of Honduras.


NC Hurricane 2009, I think you're seeing the outflow. I see no COC near Honduras. The Invest is about 50 miles north of there, and is heading to the NW. I also disagree with Taz's map, although it is closer to where I would intepret the COC is. I would initialize the COC about 20-30 miles west, of what Taz has.
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Short memento not only for the continental catastrophe in Russia (heat, fires, dust)
Moscow choked by smog from devastating fires

but also for a lot of drowned and homeless people mostly in Pakistan, but also in India. Crop is devastated in both areas.



The worst floods in Pakistan's history have hit at least 14 million people, officials say.

Greetings from Germany, fortunately well temperated at the moment, Barbara
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Quoting Jedkins01:



I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 20 inches before August is over, we have already had 9.23 to start this month!!!

Ground is saturated around here, plus its only 6 ft elevation here, so the ground looks like swamp everywhere right now. We have had an inch or greater every day since August started!

Afternoon to all, where are you located in fl.
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Wow 92L made a comeback huh? Looks like a weak spin there on the visible.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
Quoting Jeff9641:


It takes it to SE LA. Man you are arrogant and never admit when you are wrong. It takes to SE LA 36 hours after forming near Tampa.

Pipe down on this brother.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoBWSgaAvus&feature=channel
Yeah I saw it. I'm wrong.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Jeff9641:


Exactly! Especially if one hits a poor country like Haiti.
Man, just the thought of that, (sigh).
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Read it and weep Wishcasters!!!!!!!

Read it and Weep



Sammy, the initailization of 92L on that map is off. It's further north than that, which will likely be corrected once the 18Z models come in. I think that Texas and Mexico should keep their eye on this. It's moving into the GOMEX at a NW pace, (Alex came in from the WNW) and is coming further north than Alex. We'll wait... and watch. A plethora of activity to watch is more like it. ;)
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Quoting Tazmanian:



see my photo

may be time will tell when the new maps come updates come in

but in the mean time am staying with this the center has refrom the new center is at 18N and it has stalled or moveing N vary slow


all so all the tigh spining a round is at 18N i dont see any kind of spin at all near the coast




Link


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I'm sorry Taz, trying to see your center of circulation in visible satellite animation. I see more rotation right along the north coast of Honduras. Plus, all the curved cloud bands are concentring with respect to the north coast of Hondruas, which would seem to also point that the center is along the north coast of Honduras.
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Quoting KarenRei:


COC relocation? What circulation? ;) The only vorticity it has is practically on land.


I does look like main circulation has shifted to the North. In these developing systems that is not unusual. The "Center" goes from less favorable position to more favorable position.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.