Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow
A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.
Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.
93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.
Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.
Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.
Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.
Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.
Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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no no better yet 09 whats send a few bare in his home may be that will wake him up
Nevermind I figured it out myself. It's the former. I used Bonnie as an example. Bonnie was only a 35 kt storm from 11PM July 22 to 5AM July 23 and from 5AM July 23 to 11AM July 23. So it was technically only a 35 knot storm for 12 hours, but when calculating ACE you count the six hour interval that it hits 35 knots. In this case that was 11PM July 22.. Of course this is assuming the .37 on wikipedia for bonnie is correct (which I assume is, it looks correct)
I see that Colin has made a speedy recovery and that 92L is back on life support.
Back on the 7/24 my Trend Micro found the JS_Webstart virus while I was blogging here.
I think the images of 92L are great. Imagine if it wasn't face to face with the Yucatan!
two Non Words I learned of tonight fit right in:
Griefer: Someone who spends their online time harassing others
Nonversation: A worthless conversation, wherein nothing is explained or otherwise elaborated upon
who knew AOL could be so informative!
OH SURE! BE THAT WAY! JUST RUIN IT ALL! LOL
seriously...... if 92L had another day over water...... still has a little time..... but with a lack of any convection, just a bunch of rotating mid-level clouds at the moment.
An ice chunk four times the size of Manhattan has broken off of Greenland's Petermann glacier%u2014possibly the biggest glacier collapse in recorded history, scientists announced Friday...
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/08/100806-ice-chunk-island-greenland-glacier-petermann -biggest-science/
1) you said in mid-July no named storms until August 10th, we've had two.
2) You said TD3 would not develop into Bonnie
3) you said Bonnie would explode in the Gulf
4) you said 2008 would featured 10 storms
5) you said 2007 would feature less than 10 storms
6) you said Hurricane Dean would curve out to sea
7) you said Felix would not develop
8) you said Ike would curve out to sea
9) you said Karen would be a serious threat to the Caribbean.
And the list goes on and on.
XD LOL
Yep, needs time and fortunately it doesn't have it. :D
I copied and pasted your URL and it didn't work.. So I googled it.. LINK
thanks
lol. talk about wishful downcasting.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Lack of patience, ect.
The only system to watch for the Gulf in the tropics is an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is moving to the west-northwest and will likely move across the Yucatan into the southwestern Gulf this weekend. However, high pressure in the upper levels will prevent this system from moving to the Texas coast and keep it well to our southwest.
+10000 LOL
thanks, I am on an iPad and the link, image, etc. buttons evidently are flash based and don't work on iPad.... when I look at the link I copied, it looks like a space crept in after petermann
Well I believe that Colin will still become a hurricane before it becomes extra-tropical....
Add I also don't believe it will be downgraded either......
but hey, what do I know..... I am just a red-neck from South Carolina! LOL
Close
They actually use synoptic time, which is the start of the forecast cycle (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z). If you look at the best track data for Bonnie, it became a TS 2010072300 and then back to a TD 2010072318 so for ACE purposes a total of 12 hours.
AL 03 2010072218 BEST 0 222N 749W 30 1007 TD
AL 03 2010072300 BEST 0 231N 759W 35 1007 TS
AL 03 2010072306 BEST 0 238N 778W 35 1008 TS
AL 03 2010072312 BEST 0 248N 797W 35 1008 TS
AL 03 2010072315 BEST 0 254N 803W 35 1008 TS
AL 03 2010072318 BEST 0 258N 811W 30 1008 TD
Excerpt from the Governing body:
AFTER A RATHER LONG...PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED...BREAK IN TROPICAL
STORM ACTIVITY IN THE HEART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
ESTELLE HAS FORMED.
I think it was just missing a "/1" on the end! but really good info. thanks
Sorry Taz I meant to quote MH09 and quoted you, but basically you're in agreement with me.
I haven't had a nice downpour in over 2 weeks in Florida. I am starting to think Georgia stole all of it.
We've gotta keep those thirsty Atlanta people happy. :P
Note the wunderground Logos too.
TravelMets's WunderBlog
TravelMets Podcast with the Portlight Info as well,from yesterday
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