Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Cotillion:
When it comes to tracks, you don't get much more strange than Typhoon Wayne in 1986.


Wayne wins! Lol. Wow. Can't see where it started or ended. :)

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608. xcool





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
WED. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE POSITION AND THE MOISTURE RETURN. GFS
PUSHES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WESTWARD THROUGH GA AND AL AND
ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP SOMEWHAT OF A SURFACE LOW. ECMWF IS SHOWING A
CLOSED 1010 LOW FORMING OVER TAMPA BAY WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS AN
OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY
UNCERTAINTY OF THESE FEATURES AND THE DIFFICULTLY THE MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE HAVING WITH THIS SYSTEM...TOOK A MODEST BLEND OF THE
THE ECMWF AND GFS ON MON AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BUMPED UP POPS TO 60 ACROSS THE
BOARD ON MON. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCATTERED POPS THROUGH WED...BUT
MAY HAVE INCREASE IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WELL WEST OF THE STATE...






Gulf System next week may be
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Quoting 7544:
so 92l moves nw thru the yucatan then the gom the front coming down will push it ne sorta like a wilma track maybeeeeeeeeeeeee
cant see that outcome
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes that other storm I posted that showed the storm forming off the east coast then into the GOM, some have said that that was the case with that one too. Or they believe it was 2 different storms altogether. We are learning so much more everyday now that we may be able to answer some of the questions from back then. Just been looking at the "I" storms from just the past decade. For the most part they weren't nice. And only one was a tropical storm. Wonder which letter storm has been retired most? Have to save that hunt for another day. :)

Sorry don't know if the wind speeds are knots or mph.

2000
Hurricane Isaac 09/21-10/04 140 943

2001
Hurricane Iris 10/04-10/09 145 948

2002
Hurricane Isidore 09/14-09/27 125 934

2003
Hurricane Isabel 09/06-09/20 165 915

2004
Hurricane Ivan 09/02-09/24 165 910

2005
Hurricane Irene 08/04-08/18 105 970

2006
Hurricane Isaac 09/27-10/03 85 985

2007
Tropical Storm Ingrid 09/12-09/18 45 1002

2008
Hurricane Ike 09/01-09/15 145 935

2009
Hurricane Ida 11/04-11/10 105 976



Those are in mph.
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Quoting KennyNebraska:
If 92L were to suddenly intensify, move more northward and shoot the gap between the H in the west central GoM and the H east of the Bahamas and hit the northern Gulf Coast as Hurricane Danielle, would you be surprised?
sometimes things can happen
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Storm, I know most if not all are showing a recurvature of Colin but its not out of the realm of possibility for Colin to move more westward if most of the storms are on the east and if this ridge continues to move ahead to the north more quickly than Colin develops?

I think thats how I was understanding your blog today?
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Quoting StormW:
Updated steering layers forecast maps indicate that we may see a more WNW to just north of west motion after 48-72 hours with 93L, with recurvature possible near 55W, 60W at the farthest (at this point in time).


Thank you sir!
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Quoting KennyNebraska:
If 92L were to suddenly intensify, move more northward and shoot the gap between the H in the west central GoM and the H east of the Bahamas and hit the northern Gulf Coast as Hurricane Danielle, would you be surprised?


uhm...uhm...wow I'm just speechless.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Wonder which letter storm has been retired most? Have to save that hunt for another day. :)


I believe it's 'C' off the top of my head.
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Quoting angiest:


The intensity off the east coast isn't right, I think. They discontinued advisories sometime before and it was just a remnant low at the time. Advisories were re-initiated near Florida, but I dont remember what side, as a depression.


Yes that other storm I posted that showed the storm forming off the east coast then into the GOM, some have said that that was the case with that one too. Or they believe it was 2 different storms altogether. We are learning so much more everyday now that we may be able to answer some of the questions from back then. Just been looking at the "I" storms from just the past decade. For the most part they weren't nice. And only one was a tropical storm. Wonder which letter storm has been retired most? Have to save that hunt for another day. :)

Sorry don't know if the wind speeds are knots or mph.

2000
Hurricane Isaac 09/21-10/04 140 943

2001
Hurricane Iris 10/04-10/09 145 948

2002
Hurricane Isidore 09/14-09/27 125 934

2003
Hurricane Isabel 09/06-09/20 165 915

2004
Hurricane Ivan 09/02-09/24 165 910

2005
Hurricane Irene 08/04-08/18 105 970

2006
Hurricane Isaac 09/27-10/03 85 985

2007
Tropical Storm Ingrid 09/12-09/18 45 1002

2008
Hurricane Ike 09/01-09/15 145 935

2009
Hurricane Ida 11/04-11/10 105 976

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INV/92/L
MARK
16.36N/83.45W
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Quoting StormW:


Welcome!


Hey Storm just getting on-Sorry if you answered this already but Do you see 93L Recurving like Collin?
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595. xcool
Watch NORTHERN gulf Sun Tue
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If 92L were to suddenly intensify, move more northward and shoot the gap between the H in the west central GoM and the H east of the Bahamas and hit the northern Gulf Coast as Hurricane Danielle, would you be surprised?
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698

WHXX01 KWBC 061816

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1816 UTC FRI AUG 6 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100806 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100806 1800 100807 0600 100807 1800 100808 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.3N 84.6W 16.8N 86.7W 17.5N 89.0W 18.3N 91.3W

BAMD 16.3N 84.6W 16.9N 86.6W 17.5N 88.8W 18.0N 91.0W

BAMM 16.3N 84.6W 16.9N 86.7W 17.6N 89.1W 18.3N 91.3W

LBAR 16.3N 84.6W 17.2N 86.7W 18.2N 89.0W 19.1N 91.3W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 29KTS 28KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100808 1800 100809 1800 100810 1800 100811 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 19.4N 93.5W 21.7N 97.8W 23.6N 102.0W 24.5N 105.9W

BAMD 18.4N 93.2W 19.1N 97.8W 19.7N 102.6W 20.1N 108.2W

BAMM 19.0N 93.6W 20.6N 98.2W 21.9N 103.0W 22.5N 108.6W

LBAR 20.0N 93.4W 22.2N 98.0W 24.4N 101.8W 25.7N 104.9W

SHIP 56KTS 71KTS 79KTS 81KTS

DSHP 36KTS 35KTS 28KTS 30KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 84.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 82.3W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 80.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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Link
Might be interesting to click on this link & watch the wind guage and windspeed in real time. BBL.
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Quoting sarahjola:
........i am also trying really hard to learn on here what makes these systems form or fall apart, and what to look at to understand steering, and the things that affect steering. i would also love to know some hard facts about the highs and fronts, and troughs, and how they are formed and what steers them. if i could figure all that stuff out i think i could make my own educated opinion and not worry about what i hear. i get freaked out when i think something can get into the gulf and i would like to end the stress:)
sarah, did u ever check out the NWS Jetstream website? It's got really good information explained really clearly with diagrams etc, and makes a really good starting point, refreshment site, and general info location. If u haven't checked it out, u should, and prolly bookmark it for later use when somebody brings up a topic that u want clarification on...

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Cyber, that up there is a strong developed 93L right?


Nope, the extraptropical low of Colin.
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92L is expanding but have slowed in speed I think they might relocate the COC near 17.1 82.7W moving slowly NNW

93L should start to head W then WSW between now and sunday

colin look nice reminds me of danny last year
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to hint at the possibility of a cut off low over Florida from a trough that moves into the Gulf.

96 hours.






Cyber, ECMWF develops 93L more at 12z run.

img
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I would say its expanding, giving the appearance of moving rapidly, not really moving that much, its has slowed quite a bit since yesterday, just my opinion of course.


I agree. The movement has slowed substantially.

Once the next round of convection starts at the center we'll have an idea at to what 92 will become.
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When it comes to tracks, you don't get much more strange than Typhoon Wayne in 1986.
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Quoting GetReal:



Levi is still probably checking out the Holiday Inn Express commercials ou YouTube!!! LOL

Yeah, I can believe it... there were a couple on there I hadn't seen before... guess they came out in a different market... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
578. xcool
hmmm
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Quoting StormW:


Well, actually more WNW for a short term. Two of the 3 steering layers forecast models indicated the ridge to build, with a more westerly flow after about 48-72 hours. That was the NOGAPS and CMC. This mornings analysis of the 00Z run of the ECMWF basically confirmed the two.


Do you think 93L will move in a similar fashion to Colin or perhaps more eastward?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23013
Current ACE

1. Alex: 6.78
2. Colin: 0.98
3. Bonnie: 0.37

Total: 8.13
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Quoting StormW:


Well, actually more WNW for a short term. Two of the 3 steering layers forecast models indicated the ridge to build, with a more westerly flow after about 48-72 hours. That was the NOGAPS and CMC. This mornings analysis of the 00Z run of the ECMWF basically confirmed the two.


Thank you sir. Really appreciate your knowledge sharing.
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:


As the frames go on, it looks like that 92L goes from a Warm core system to a Cold core system. :P
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Quoting xcool:


I like that map... I like the area of concentrated vorticy... there's actually a tad of vorticy to both invests as well.
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571. 7544
so 92l moves nw thru the yucatan then the gom the front coming down will push it ne sorta like a wilma track maybeeeeeeeeeeeee
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Storm,
I really like your paint by numbers technique. I never was any good at finding Waldo etc...

I worry about 92L, I work with a childrens school in Belize that is basically at seal level on an island. I also hope that we do not have a relocation and have center develop under the heavier convection.
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Quoting extreme236:
The early models as well as the 12z GFS take 92L into the Bay of Campeche...SHIPS strengthens 92L to 46kts after it goes over the Yucatan.


92L does have a good shot in the BOC. It's going to want to organize quickly, however.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23013
Quoting StormW:
93L

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
StormW , first a 3 legged bug, now a 5 legged one, which one will bug us the most,I guess the 5 legged one will, the 3 legged one is just a freak of nature, lmao!! Out for bit , everyone have a good afternoon.
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Quoting StormW:
93L

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />


Storm, I believe you mention the possibility of 93L moving SW at some point in time...why?
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Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to hint at the possibility of a cut off low over Florida from a trough that moves into the Gulf.

96 hours.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23013
Thanks Storm.. will go see what you had to say... I have not really had a chance to do much lurking today at work...they are actually making me "work hard" today!

thanks all.
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The early models as well as the 12z GFS take 92L into the Bay of Campeche...SHIPS strengthens 92L to 46kts after it goes over the Yucatan.
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I think it's game, set, and match with 93L now, it's beginning to organize nicely.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.