Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow
A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.
Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.
93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.
Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.
Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.
Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.
Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.
Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 — Blog Index
I find it hard to believe we wont see an uptick when the MJO comes into play. But you never know. Im not complaining about the lull for sure, Carburetor is giving me issues with the generator ... bad timing -.-
Kori, r u still up?
I'm looking at the PREDICT webpage and noting that CIMSS has two different invests marked. Wonder why NHC has only 1?
It's here now....
I'm looking at the two areas in the CATL with interest. The more northeaterly 1 looks like it may not get too strong, but I haven't looked at waters in projected path yet. The other, not yet designated 1, I suspect may be more high powered, and possibly also more of a threat. I don't see the high set up remaining as is for another week. The 15th is next Sunday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another named storm by then. I'm just hoping we get a couple more that recurve early, preferably NOT over Bermuda or the Azores....
I know Levi and the others have suggested that the MJO intensifying in the atlantic will strengthen the Bermuda high. How an intensified Bermuda high affects the High over the Azores is anybody's guess better than mine.
I was wondering about that as well. Though the area just south of the CV Islands deserves to be labeled 94L, IMO.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTER
5:00 PM PhST August 7 2010
=============================================
Tropical Depression ESTER has slightly intensified as it continues to move towards Batanes area.
At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ester located at 19.9°N 122.8°E or 100 km aoutheast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.
Signal Warning #1
=================
Luzon Region
-------------
1.Cagayan
2.Babuyan Island
3.Calayan Island
4.Apayao
5.Kalinga
6.Abra
7.Ilocos Norte
8.Ilocos Sur
9.Northern Isabela
10.Batanes Group of Islands
Additional Information
======================
Tropical Depression "Ester" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over the Western section of the country.
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the Western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Storm looks more ragged than yesterday. It has been encountering shear. Looks like it is embedded between two TuTTs. Next concern for the eastern atlantic and the islands is not 93L (as that is being projected to be a fish storm, too) but the impressive wave south west of the cape verde islands. Has been maintaing impressive convection for the last twelve hours.
Morning.
Latest 6Z GFS shows the blob SE of 93L tracking mostly west, but weakening it...Link
Weakening it? Do you know where we can find projected shear in its path?
Oh nice, cool, thanks.
Link
Link
Go to the 850-200 mb shear in any of the models. GFS does best, generally.
It certainly appears a little less organized than 12 hours ago.
do'h forgot the charts werent updating... thats good news so far then :) here's to rooting .... 3:1:0
I'll 2nd those thoughts.
mornin...mornin crew :)
*swears off Landshark on work days*...
Shear appears favorable for the next several days regardless if it moves poleward or equatorial. In fact, the GFS hints at a weak anticyclone aloft for the next 48 hours or so.
Yeah, this could be a land threat. Maybe. I don't want to sound like a wishcaster.
We shall see what happens.
MJO is here....hum.... that's always an ingredient that starts the pot a boiling...
Gulfcoast surfers are migrating cross the state today -- actually I'm sure most are pulling into the parking spots on the EAST coast of FL as I post, thanks to waves generated by Colin. If you think it gets harsh in here, I will bet the season's first east coast 'cane waves will have wave-starved surfers a wee bit aggressive. Hoping the Aloha Spirit prevails - going to be crowded on the line-up. I'll pass and maybe head over for the clean-up in a day or so.
Colin from a surf perspective/ Aurasurf/M.Weaver
The East Bahamas buoy is a whopping 10ft at 12 seconds. Imagine how good the surf is in Eleuthera right now. Most of the swell will be blocked by the Bahamas. Many of you guys are coast trip vets so you have your spot in your back pocket. Lately we have been pointing N of the Cape where we can surf and fish! 12 second swell over there sometimes tends to closeout and the farther N you go the more offshore the winds may be. Not trying to confuse you and point you in any direction but like the good book says: "seek and ye shall find".
Gah. Scratch that. I thought for sure you said that 93L was expected to track west, not the CV blob. My bad. Sorry if that confused anyone.
In any case, 93L does look less organized to me.
Oh, and IKE, don't worry about that. I may have been complaining about that the last couple nights, but that's only to those who I don't really respect, and deem ignorant. You are not one of those people. Because you've earned my respect, I will not belittle you for a differing opinion.
Cheers, buddy.
Water vapor imagery suggests that some slight dry air is becoming entrained into the system's west side. I do expect tropical cyclogenesis from this area, but it will probably occur a bit slower than I had previously suspected.
93L is sweeping the dust off Uncle Sal's store in time for this new wave to walk into the shop.
120 hours....
162 hours....
That doesn't jive well with what one would expect in an upward MJO, which is only forecast to further amplify and strengthen over the next week or two. It's likely a convective feedback issue, as you said, especially since this same model is the one predicting the most robust upward MJO pulse.
It continues that trend out to 180 hours. Looks like what a downward MJO would look like.
You ever notice how it always shows a ton more convection on the 192 hour frame, only? It's done that on every run since I've been following it. Then it goes back to a "normal" frame at 204 hours.
You would think they would fix that kink on the 192 hour frame?
Yup. Noticed the same thing. Obviously the model still needs considerable tweaking.
According to this:
About 10 to 15 mph.
I should learn to read those maps. Thanks a lot!
I picked up .39 inches of rain yesterday. Got 78.8 outside....right now.
PGI25L looks like it may need to be watched, lots of convection and a southern track.
Viewing: 1901 - 1951
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 — Blog Index