Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow
A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.
Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.
93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.
Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.
Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.
Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.
Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.
Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Bryan's good in my book. I was hunkered down in my house back in 1992 watching Andrew spin across the Bahamas and toward me and my two very young children while watching Norcross on the TV. At one point, he said some of the most chilling words I've ever heard: "Absolutely, there is no doubt about it, it is going to happen tonight". I thought I'd killed my family. Anyway, I stayed with him until the power went out, so I've always been a bit grateful...
Andrew was a small compact storm and NHC was not in the core of that storm where they were located in 1992....They were on US 1 just south of UM and north of where the core came accross (but they did lose their doppler dome from the top of the building).....The current location of NHC is further south but not quite where the core of Andrew was either.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
much of northern and central Georgia
parts of southern North Carolina
most of South Carolina
coastal waters
It just seemed to have broadened-out a bit on last few frames.
Convection may swallow it up soon, the way its going.
Thats been our saying in the islands for the last 3 days..
MARK
16.23N/35.32W
Tornadoes: Very Low
EF2+ Tornadoes: Very Low
Severe Wind: High
65 kt. Wind: Low
Severe Hail: Moderate
2"+ Hail: Low
O_o how long did it take you to do that?
C, B, D, C
Funny, the watch excludes most of the best looking convection. :)
Ah, a VERTICAL balance, rather than a horizontal one.... so the heat is not being taken from the tropics to the poles so much as from the bottom to the top...
Thanks, Karen.
lol, about 30 sec - 60 sec.
Ref to 292: Simply put, (and that is the only way I can put it) it is an interesting blob to watch. There is convergence at the lower levels, and divergence at the upper levels that is causing, along with some vorticity nearby, which is causing the convection to build over the area...
All of which are ingredients that are needed for the start of any possible TC development.
(Then again, I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night!!!)
Ah cool more recoon reports. coming.
There still happening everywhere, but no one is paying close attention like a couple of months ago.
Yeah....My girfriends house was in the core and was leveled by the time I got back there on Monday morning after the storm passed......We luckily decided to stay with our parents further north in Miami after we borded it up on Sunday afternoon......Lost everything we had at the time (except for our cars).
Location: 27.9°N 66.9°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 66.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Shear will decrease by tonight...you can already see the center moving towards the convection.
Ok I have to know what the heck that joke is lol? I've seen it posted 5 times a day for the last week and I have no idea where it came from.
Colin IS far from dead.
ABNT20 KNHC 061747
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 675 MILES
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL-ORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Indeed. We're screwing up our planet. We should all be so very, very proud of ourselves... :-\
lol thanks
Colin is a fighter, that's for sure. It's also grown in size, as well.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 675 MILES
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL-ORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
You don't have Holiday Inn Expresses up there?
It's from an ad campaign whereby people talk authoritatively about something or perform surgeries etc., only to have people around them find out they don't have qualifications but did stay at a Holiday Inn Express the previous night, the implication being that that decision makes you smart.
ABNT20 KNHC 061747
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 675 MILES
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL-ORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Once, in the CATL, he was Bonnie sized. Now, he pretty much tripled in size.
FRIDAY 1 PM
SIGNS OF THINGS TO COME
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg
While this is not yet at all the kind of pattern that I think we are going to get to this season, some of the naysayers out there should understand that their fears of the non-season seemed to be based less on fact than superstition. If you look at the picture above, you can easily see why... in a NEUTRAL pattern for development, three systems are trying to develop, one already named, one about to run out of room, and one that will be the season's next named storm, in my opinion, but remains out at sea.
That this is "suddenly" occuring now is no surprise, as I forecast last week we would get a name this week. However, you have to understand that this pattern now is not really anything special for development, and is not what I am thinking is coming... Yet from next to nothing a week ago, to three nicely shaped systems, should tell you how fast things can go pop.
The GFS still is not picking up what I think could be the next threat to the U.S., and that is what this front may do once down in the Gulf and off the southern Atlantic coast. It's trying... but it's not yet to where the Euro is on it. An interesting situation, and the reason I am concerned about this is that it fits a pattern that can lead to this kind of non-deep tropical development, and on top of someone.
By the way, the loop of the above still is pretty interesting... take a look...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
Colin should start to intensify tonight and tomorrow as the low-level center is being pulled under the mid-level system, and that is usually an invitation to deepen.
The big news, though, is the heat, which will reach high tide next week in the Ohio Valley, which though hot this summer, has been spared the worst of the summer heat. They will have their turn next week.
Thanks for reading, ciao for now. *****
Click on image to view original size in a new window
AF306 0304A COLIN HDOB 13 20100806
174030 2635N 06527W 8278 01770 0145 +169 +079 205032 034 /// /// 03
174100 2638N 06526W 8569 01472 0152 +175 +084 205034 035 /// /// 03
174130 2640N 06525W 8848 01196 0160 +184 +089 202036 037 037 001 03
174200 2642N 06524W 9166 00889 0156 +200 +095 200038 039 /// /// 03
174230 2644N 06523W 9506 00564 0140 +219 +101 187039 039 036 002 03
174300 2646N 06522W 9597 00469 0130 +221 +108 179037 038 038 001 00
174330 2648N 06521W 9600 00467 0129 +224 +113 178034 036 036 004 00
174400 2649N 06520W 9603 00464 0127 +226 +116 181034 035 035 002 00
174430 2651N 06520W 9591 00475 0128 +225 +120 183036 036 036 002 03
174500 2653N 06519W 9595 00472 0129 +225 +123 182036 036 034 003 00
174530 2654N 06518W 9595 00472 0128 +223 +127 180037 037 034 002 00
174600 2656N 06517W 9597 00469 0130 +225 +130 181038 038 035 002 00
174630 2658N 06516W 9748 00341 0136 +234 +133 179038 038 036 002 00
174700 2659N 06515W 9778 00314 0135 +236 +136 179035 036 034 003 03
174730 2701N 06516W 9762 00327 0135 +235 +141 178034 035 036 001 03
174800 2702N 06518W 9774 00315 0134 +235 +145 175032 032 033 005 00
174830 2702N 06520W 9771 00318 0133 +235 +148 176033 034 034 003 00
174900 2703N 06521W 9772 00317 0133 +235 +150 174034 034 035 003 00
174930 2704N 06523W 9772 00317 0132 +235 +151 174033 034 035 002 00
175000 2705N 06524W 9772 00316 0131 +235 +153 173033 034 035 004 00
$$
;
Lol. Funny.
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