Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak
Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.
Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.
93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.
Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.
The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.
Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Next post
I'll have an update Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Why so extreme? Why not start with not buying a suburban for a family of three?? Or supporting wind energy?
Well.. I wouldn't say that yet. The gulf SST's are extremely warm and favorable, that's when we need to watch it.
true, I see no reason why a Prius or Honda Fit can't tow a boat or any other kind of trailer.
Why so extreme? Or supporting wind energy?
we all know how that works in tornado alley...
Why does change have to be an all-or-nothing thing? I hear few non-radical types talking about "abandoning our way of life". The thing is, though, we're not even to that point as a nation; most people still believe in the fairy tale that the planet is not warming, and until/unless the salient truth can set in and our lawmakers start doing something besides padding their pocketbooks with contributions from Big Energy, we're doomed. Period.
As with anything that needs fixing, accepting that there is a problem is the first step on the road to recovery. But we're not there yet...
Well it certainly works in other countries. We have a few of them up here as well. It would be a heck of a lot better than trying to clean up oil from our oceans and food supply. How could you disagree with that?
Are you refuting or agreeing with me? Im pretty sure I didnt say anything along the lines of all or nothing
I'm all for solar, wind, nuke, geo thermal, tidal energy and anywhere else we can find sources of energy. Still not enough, not nearly. Maybe we should outlaw beef. Cow farts put tons of methane in the air daily. Maybe all the George Soros and Michael Meyers and Al Gore types can start a tribunal like George Bernard Shaw advocated where they march us stupid people before a panel of judges and make us justify our existance.I can see it now. "Mr. Doug! What have you done for the enviornment this year"? Well sirs, I quit eating beef and planted a tree....
Are the colors on this map showing surface reflections?? or simply accentuating the shear on the map??
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/13/jeff-masters-sets-the-record-straight-on-dana-milbanks-column /
Audio in the link for the call so you can hear it for yourself.
Too bad AGW rules now on this blog :(
Manmade Global Warming: The Solution
Top right of this blog --
WunderPoll Results:
Do you believe human-caused global warming is a significant factor contributing to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010?
Yes 64 (37.6%)
No 79 (46.5%)
Not sure27 (15.9%)
Total: 170 (100%)
Brilliant stance: earth running out of oil, America on it's knees sucking Arab oil hose, possible irriversible global warming... "I just need more proof before I change my lifestyle."
If you wait and there is global warming, we are all ruined. If you change and global warming was a hoax, you can still drive your electric car and use your solar panels.
Sorry I was referring to your post #106.. While typing you posted the Surface reflection at 850mb. I got a good idea how the 850mb surface map works.. I was referring to the shear map with the colors.. do the colors represent or accentuate the shear??
In fact, going vegitarian ia a great option. Or you can cut down to holidays. Cheaper cleaner and healthier - of course it takes some will power at first and, of course, sarcasm is much easier than actual effort.
You stated "I want to see more evidence that points to disaster before I abandon our way of life". How else can that possibly be interpreted?
Furthermore, how much more evidence do you guys need? How hot does the planet have to get before Deniers are convinced? How many glaciers need to melt? How many massive heat waves do we need to see? How thin does the Arctic ice need to get? How many extended droughts do there need to be? How much earlier does spring need to come? How much longer does summer need to last? How much more coral needs to be bleached? How many more than the 97%--and growing--of credible earth scientists who believe AGW is a major issue do there need to be?
Yeesh...
oh..ok thats why we're under a flood watch
THATS EXACTLY IT! A just cause gained through lies is not just at all. Just ask the millions of people still upset about not finding WMDs ..... I agree we should pursue alternative energy but not by using a theory that isnt proven.
1100 AM EDT SUN 08 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-070
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST IN E. GULF NEAR 26.5N 83.5W AT 10/1800Z.
This would also take away the need for Obamacare! Less meat, healthier people, less doctor and hospital visits.... Hmmmmm Might be on to something...
It is funny to listen to some bash alternate energy, such as wind farms, with comments like they would work in tornado alley. As if putting a huge environmentally, friendly wind mill up is any more odd than building this huge contraption to drill deep into our earth.
Off for my Sunday morning hike with my dogs. TTYL.
A lot of us do this: pellet stoves using pellets made at the local sawmill, biking to work, led lights, vegitarian. The problem with that article is that the people who are worried are already doing something but that is not enough. It's the Hummer drivers and others who could make the biggest effect: calculate the difference in changing a 9 mpg Hummer for a 19 mpg SUV versus changing a 25 mpg family car for a 60 mpg high efficiency car. Changing the Hummer makes a much greater effect. similarly, one fat lard butt eating steak every night going vegitarian makes more difference than anything a lot of vegitarians can change in their diet.
Winds have a westerly component all along the Florida east coast currently. Looks to me that something forming off the east coast is going to move SW across FL into the Gulf.
Well Maybe your backyard is a good start for a windmill farm..... I have one and solar panels... What have you done???
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