Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Something interesting in the Tropics.



Read the Discussion from NWS in San Juan, PR.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1217 PM AST sun Aug 8 2010

Update...the 12z sounding came in wetter and much more unstable
than yesterday. The cap that kept convection at Bay over Puerto
Rico and generally suppressed over the surrounding waters is now
gone. Also the relative humidity from the surface to 20 thousand
feet was generally above 66 percent except for a drier layer
between 8 and 14 thousand feet. This boosted the precipitable
water to 1.95 inches and yielded a lifted index of minus 6.5.
Winds were generally uniform above the surface and ranged from
east to northeast at 10 to 20 knots to 23 thousand feet. This will
create a favorable environment for convection that was not seen
yesterday. Therefore have raised the probability of precipitation over the southwest
portion of Puerto Rico to 70 percent.

Discussion...an approaching low level trough can be seen extending
from 13 north 65 west to 18 north 62 west and is distinct from a
reflection of the upper level trough which extends from 250 mb
down to about 500 mb. The reflection of the upper level trough in
the middle levels is following upper level trough very closely and
was located at 23 north 54 west at 15z. It is expected to move to
23 north 60 west by early Tuesday. The the low level trough is
moving at about 11 knots toward the west northwest and will be
located near 22 north 70 west by early Tuesday. The low level
trough is being reflected up to about 500 mb and both troughs are
apparent at 500 mb...according to the GFS.


All of the above means that the low level trough...which appears
to be the source of the increased shower activity...will pass over
the area after 09/00z with most of the moisture behind it...hence
the additional showers forecast by 09/08-12z.


Another patch of moisture...which the GFS is occasionally
designating as a low...is moving northwest at 13 knots from a
position of 15.6 north 54.3 west at 08/1545z...is of interest to the
local area. For one...it is forming an arc of moisture in the
precipitable water product that will intersect Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands...and...two...it may curve to the left and move
directly over the local forecast area late on Tuesday bringing yet
another pulse of moisture. The combination of the connecting arc
of moisture and the weak low should make Tuesday more showery than
Monday...and these showers could continue into Wednesday depending
on the timing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I read in one of the NHC discussions that the SHIPS factors in wind shear within a 500 mile radius. If that is true then what could be happening is that the SHIPS is factoring in the ULL by the Bahamas even if 94L is in the GOMEX. Oh well, I'll just pay closer attention to the LGEM rather than the SHIPS.


That might be a good idea. Also, it is just the first run of the SHIPS, so we'll see.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Ah Got you. Rained some this AM I think the car was wet when we left for Church. But since then nothing. We do kind of live in the pocket. That is why I always say we will not take a direct full frontal Cane here.
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Hey Bonnie, whew, you all are getting hammered there....

Quoting Bonz:
Nasty little storm. A lightning strike nearby took out my cable and our Internet. The 'net is back, but not the cable. Lucky I have a little tiny portable TV.
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93L does not look healthy on the CIMSS PREDICT images. The convection is well north of the circulation center

.

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Ships brings 94L to 41Kts
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


It's a software program from Link you can download a demo and check it out. You will need to use a free level 2 radar feed and follow these instructions if you have any problems just shoot me a WU email

1) Start GR2Analyst or GRLevel2.

2) Select File->Configure Polling

3) Click on "Add"

4) Enter this URL into the text field:
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/data/nexrd2/raw/

5) Click OK, GR2/A will read the list of sites available from the source

6) Click OK on the "Configure Polling" dialog to close it

Once you have told GR2 or GR2Analyst about the feed, the "Start Polling" and "Site" menu items will be enabled.
Thank You and have a wonderful day.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTH PALM BEACH GENERAL AIRPORT...

AT 256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTH PALM BEACH GENERAL AIRPORT...MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH. FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE NOTED IN THIS AREA.
ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.




That's headed right towards me. As a matter of fact it's on top of me.
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672. Bonz
Nasty little storm. A lightning strike nearby took out my cable and our Internet. The 'net is back, but not the cable. Lucky I have a little tiny portable TV.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's inland when upper level winds go down to 11 knots...120 hours to answer your question.


Thanks.
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We get a lot of pop thunder storms in S. Fl. not a lot of Squall lines unless there is a TC connection.
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Quoting extreme236:


NHC seems to think conditions will be favorable, at least in a couple days from now. SHIPS is based off the GFS anyway, and it doesn't show 94L developing.
I read in one of the NHC discussions that the SHIPS factors in wind shear within a 500 mile radius. If that is true then what could be happening is that the SHIPS is factoring in the ULL by the Bahamas even if 94L is in the GOMEX. Oh well, I'll just pay closer attention to the LGEM rather than the SHIPS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting dader:


Ehh.. I am in SE Martin right now. Lot of rain, bit windy and very dark. All in all not much more spectacular than your normal mid-morning or mid-afternoon thunderstorm. More just a big rain maker than anything else

Poured in W. Palm Beach...just slowing down now. Still raining..but not quite as blustery as earlier.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's inland when upper level winds go down to 11 knots...120 hours to answer your question.


again though, SHIPS is based on the GFS, which does not develop 94L

it is entirely possible that the SHIPS and GFS are wrong
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I asked if they had squall lines because of that thunderstorm line behavior associated with the invest.. I wouldn't ask if they had invests because I know they do have invests. I know they have pop-up storms. But I don't know if squall lines form there or dip down that far south. From the amount of posts about it I guess they don't have them very often.

And freaking out was a playful exaggeration :)



Ahhh, ok. I misread your comment.
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Quoting psuweathernewbie:
MH09, at what day does SHIPS take the shear down to 11knots?
It's inland when upper level winds go down to 11 knots...120 hours to answer your question.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp
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663. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting SugaCane:
New Smyrna Tornado was yesterday


Thanks for the correction. Some of our local reporters aren't the brightest bulbs.
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Quoting psuweathernewbie:
MH09, at what day does SHIPS take the shear down to 11knots?


120 hrs or day 5.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It keeps upper level conditions hostile, however when they do become marginal it takes to a TS.

SHEAR (KT) 22 25 26 25 18 13 17 17 17 12 18 12 11


NHC seems to think conditions will be favorable, at least in a couple days from now. SHIPS is based off the GFS anyway, and it doesn't show 94L developing.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
MH09, thoughts on the broad surface low near 13N/65.5W?
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Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser:
Huracaneer "We seem to be in a dry pocket here in the Tampa Bay area, not much rain." Um not to disrespect your comment, but it has rained here in Pinellas county every day.


I agree, I mean today, compared to all the rain east of us. Check the radar here
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Quoting Kristina40:
I didn't notice anyone freaking out and it is classified as an invest.


I asked if they had squall lines because of that thunderstorm line behavior associated with the invest.. I wouldn't ask if they had invests because I know they do have invests. I know they have pop-up storms. But I don't know if squall lines form there or dip down that far south. From the amount of posts about it I guess they don't have them very often.

And freaking out was a playful exaggeration :)

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MH09, at what day does SHIPS take the shear down to 11knots?
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Quoting Huracaneer:
We seem to be in a dry pocket here in the Tampa Bay area, not much rain. 94L seems to be moving SW (I think). Trying to remember some discussions from Fay, in 2008. Can Lake Okeechobee sustain a tropical storm? I seem to remember (vaguely) that there is enough energy in the very warm water of Okeechobee to give a small boost to a tropical system. Does anyone remember this?
You must have that Indian Protection thing going on because I'm 30 min from you and we're getting drowned in a relatively short time. But we're not complaining, we need the water.
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Quoting extreme236:
First run of the SHIPS for 94L doesn't do a whole lot intensity wise with the system.
It keeps upper level conditions hostile, however when they do become marginal it takes to a TS.

SHEAR (KT) 22 25 26 25 18 13 17 17 17 12 18 12 11
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
93L is certainly west bound and down this afternoon and getting better looking by the frame.
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Huracaneer "We seem to be in a dry pocket here in the Tampa Bay area, not much rain." Um not to disrespect your comment, but it has rained here in Pinellas county every day.
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First run of the SHIPS for 94L doesn't do a whole lot intensity wise with the system.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
I use Norton and it hasn't given me any troubles. Maybe because I run noscripts on Firefox? Norton might identify some of the ads as spyware or adware.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
ECMWF nice system coming off Africa next Sunday

Telling from that latitude, it looks like a dust low.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
New Smyrna Tornado was yesterday
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646. OGal
I am in Seminole County, just north of Orlando. We are getting heavy rain and lots of thunder. This is the second round for us today. Thank you, thank you we really needed this rain. So far almost two inches of rain today. We had an inch yesterday.
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ECMWF nice system coming off Africa next Sunday

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Quoting ajcamsmom2:
Had a bit of trouble logging on ... Norton says this site is unsafe....

http://safeweb.norton.com/report/show?url=wunderground.com

Link

yes Ive already sent a report to the wu cyberpolice
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Local mets reporting a tornado touchdown in New Smyrna Beach with some roof damage. No injuries.
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We seem to be in a dry pocket here in the Tampa Bay area, not much rain. 94L seems to be moving SW (I think). Trying to remember some discussions from Fay, in 2008. Can Lake Okeechobee sustain a tropical storm? I seem to remember (vaguely) that there is enough energy in the very warm water of Okeechobee to give a small boost to a tropical system. Does anyone remember this?
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I didn't notice anyone freaking out and it is classified as an invest.
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639. dader
Quoting jeebsa:
Wow big time storm over Martin county right now.


Ehh.. I am in SE Martin right now. Lot of rain, bit windy and very dark. All in all not much more spectacular than your normal mid-morning or mid-afternoon thunderstorm. More just a big rain maker than anything else
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Does central to south Florida get squall lines very often? Getting tired of reading posts of Fl freaking out lol.
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Had a bit of trouble logging on ... Norton says this site is unsafe....

http://safeweb.norton.com/report/show?url=wunderground.com

Link
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...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTH PALM BEACH GENERAL AIRPORT...

AT 256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTH PALM BEACH GENERAL AIRPORT...MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH. FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE NOTED IN THIS AREA.
ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
634. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
This is just a tropical train moving SE unloading on us here. More to the NW. Very little lightning, just bucketfulls of rain.
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632. xcool
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC SUN AUG 8 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100808 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100808 1800 100809 0600 100809 1800 100810 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.5N 79.5W 29.6N 79.9W 30.0N 80.8W 30.2N 82.1W
BAMD 29.5N 79.5W 28.5N 80.2W 27.9N 81.4W 27.4N 83.1W
BAMM 29.5N 79.5W 29.2N 80.2W 29.1N 81.4W 28.9N 83.1W
LBAR 29.5N 79.5W 28.8N 80.1W 28.4N 81.3W 28.1N 83.0W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 26KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100810 1800 100811 1800 100812 1800 100813 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.6N 83.8W 31.4N 87.3W 32.1N 89.1W 32.2N 89.5W
BAMD 27.2N 85.0W 28.0N 89.2W 29.6N 93.1W 31.0N 96.1W
BAMM 28.9N 85.0W 29.5N 89.0W 30.6N 92.1W 31.5N 94.1W
LBAR 28.0N 85.0W 28.1N 89.7W 28.9N 94.2W 30.2N 97.6W
SHIP 34KTS 36KTS 39KTS 40KTS
DSHP 32KTS 34KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 79.5W DIRCUR = 215DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 30.6N LONM12 = 78.6W DIRM12 = 207DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 31.6N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
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We're getting a lot of thunder here in Panama City. It is jet black over Tyndall AFB right now.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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