Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak
Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.
Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.
93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.
Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.
The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.
Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Next post
I'll have an update Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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As good as a Monday can be anyway.
AOI
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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
I think it was stormpetrol who was asking about it yesterday. Kman picked this speck out two days ago. He is really good at finding the needle in a haystack
Completely normal for troughs to have dry and stable air behind them, while right now its one of three inhibiting factors with the other two being shear and landmass, I do not foresee dry air being much of a problem if it manages to moisten the environment up. Shear's going to be lessening as well over the next couple of days, and SST's in the Gulf are very warm.
a spoonful of sugar... sound like Mary Poppins!
Hi there
I wasn't on until late yesterday but I first noticed this on Saturday. I found it odd that there would be a strong 850 vort signature in the area just about right over Martinique or Guadeloupe and ran a loop in zoom. What showed up was very small but potent circulation.
Since then it has migrated generally West to where it is now. A feature like this needs to be watched this time of year once it gets to 75W.
Thanks Storm.
09/1145 UTC 23.2N 48.0W T1.5/1.5 93L
Looks More Zonal and no major trofs if I read that map right
Hi Pete. So far so good this season. I don't think it will last much longer though. Nature has to do something with the heat build up in the tropics and the only way to transport it out of the region is by tropical cyclone.
Anyway, time for me to get going for the work day. I will check back in later.
Have a good day everyone.
Looks like the sneaking continues. Will chat later.
AL 94 2010080712 BEST 0 281N 815W 20 1013 DB
AL 94 2010080900 BEST 0 274N 816W 20 1013 LO
AL 94 2010080906 BEST 0 267N 819W 20 1012 LO
AL 94 2010080912 BEST 0 262N 823W 20 1012 LO
Puts it closer to the deep convection, now in the Gulf.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST IN E. GULF NEAR 26.5N 83.5W AT 10/1800Z.
Without any significant pressure falls at the surface, somewhere, I would not expect any rapid development (if any at all) with 94L.
Maybe it may have a chance once it gets in the GOM, and creates a little more distance from the ULL to its' east.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 071330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 07 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-069
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
on nhc
that is an old one
I was trying to let you off the hook, PD. ;-) First, the quote was taken out of context. Second, the ellipsis--which I realize was in the newspaper, and didn't come from you--makes it appear as though Browner is simply a moron. Browner made the rounds of the Sunday talk shows, and was asked repeatedly about last week's NOAA report on BP's Deepwater Horizon spill, a report which explains where the tens of millions of gallons of crude and dispersant have gone. That report itself states that about 25% of the oil that leaked either evaporated or dissolved into the Gulf water. Nobody--least of all Browner (who, by the way, is a highly-educated lawyer who never claimed to be an ocean scientist)--actually ever said that "The oil is gone like sugar dumped into a cup of tea." Now, I'll ask you: if you pour a little sugar onto the table next to your tea cup, you can see it, right? Now pick up that sugar, drop it in your tea or coffee, and give it a stir or two. Now can you see it? No, you can't. It's there, though...and that's what both Browner and the report stated; just because you can't see it doesn't mean it isn't there.
Can you not see the difference?
Anyway, as I said, the Radical Right--of which you may or may not be a member, I'm not sure--can certainly try to make it look as though Browner is stupid, but she actually stated something diametrically opposite what the Pensacola paper inferred. Nice try, though.
Actually, that is quite true.
I don't know about the rest of you; but, whenever I see a forecast of 80% chance of rain, I roll my eyes and say to myself, 'Yeah, fat chance.'...I am willing to wager that the vast majority of folks feel the same way about weather forecasting. Is it a lost art or is it an art that never was to begin with?
Who can really say?
All I know is that if we allow ourselves to be alarmists regarding the weather and hurricanes, people will soon find themselves saying, under their breath, 'Yeah, when hell freezes over.' and statistically they will be justified a large majority of the time.
I am beginning to wonder if the advancements in our technology has outpaced our ability to understand what it all means. For example, is it really significant that we are able to determine a temperature of 1/10 of a degree F? Or is all that information really a case of diminishing return?
Data gathered using sophisticated technology has only really been around for less that 30 years. To attempt to look back beyond that period of time and expect to draw dependable conclusions is simply folly. It is like comparing apples to pineapples...the 'apple' part is there, only the two taste completely different.
Since we know that data gathered prior to the thermocouple was significantly more inaccurate and data gathered by todays technology is even more precise, we must understand that we can only draw inferences as opposed to reach definitive conclusions.
Today, 94L is out in the Atlantic. Look at the animation of Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW)on the CIMSS website and you can see a totally different interpretation of circulation. Compared to the two other circulations in the Atlantic...94L is a dud. Is the oil clean-up going to be further delayed by inaccurate weather forecasting as was the case with the supposed TS Bonnie? Please tell me it aint so.
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