Pakistan's Katrina; 94L could develop in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 10, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

The monsoon season of 2010 continues to generate havoc in Asia, as lingering rains from the latest monsoon low continue to affect hard-hit Pakistan, China, and India. At least 702 are now reported dead and 1,042 are missing in China's Gansu province, due to torrential monsoon rains that triggered a deadly landslide and extreme flooding on Sunday. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, with 500 people missing. Monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. But no country has suffered more than Pakistan, where monsoon floods have destroyed huge portions of the nation's infrastructure and killed at least 1600 people. The number of people affected or needing assistance has been estimated to be as high as 13 million people--8% of the nation's population. The disaster is the worst natural disaster in Pakistan's history, and is rightfully being called "Pakistan's Katrina."


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Monsoons: a primer
In summer, the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This occurs because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. However, monsoons have their dark side as well--hundreds of people in India and surrounding nations die in an average year in floods and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Each summer, approximately 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in the El Niño-weakened monsoon season of 2009. This year's first monsoon depression formed on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela. A second monsoon depression arrived in Pakistan on August 3, and has brought additional heavy rains.

Are the this year's monsoon floods due to global warming?
No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades.

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China.

Donations urgently needed
The massive humanitarian crisis in Pakistan requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of 94L from the Key West radar.

94L
A 1010 mb low pressure system (94L) near the Florida Keys is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Florida and the adjacent waters, and could become a tropical or subtropical depression as early as Wednesday. Current Key West radar shows the rotation of the storm, but the thunderstorm activity has not yet organized into low-level spiral bands. A few areas in the Keys and extreme South Florida have seen 1 - 2 inches of rain thus far from 94L. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures are very warm, 30 - 31°C. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that 94L is forming beneath an upper-level low with plenty of dry air, and there is a substantial flow of dry, continental air wrapping into 94L. This dry air is retarding the development of 94L, and may force the storm to organize into a subtropical storm instead of a tropical storm. A subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. There is no such thing as a subtropical hurricane. If a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane force winds, than it must have become fully tropical. It usually takes at least two days for a subtropical storm to make the transition to a tropical storm.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The storm's main problem will be dry air, and I don't expect 94L to undergo rapid development. Most of the models bring 94L ashore over Louisiana by Thursday, though the GFDL model predicts 94L could stall off the coast and not make landfall until Friday. If 94L does make landfall Thursday, it is unlikely to be a hurricane, due to all the dry air aloft in the Gulf. However, the GFDL model is predicting that the 1-day delay in landfall to Friday will allow 94L enough time to grow fully tropical and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. I think this solution is unlikely. Storms that get their start underneath a cold, dry, upper-level low very rarely attain hurricane strength in three days. A 40 - 50 mph tropical or subtropical storm at landfall Thursday or Friday is a much more reasonable forecast.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L and 94L.

Moscow hits 99°F again today
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 37°C (99°F) today, the 28th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 10 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperature have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first ten days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. Smog and smoke from wildfires continued to blanket the city today, with the Russian Meteorological Agency reporting that pollution due to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and hydrocarbons exceeding the safe limit by factors of 1.2 - 2.2. Air pollution levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level on Saturday. As I reported in yesterday's post, the heat wave has likely killed at least 15,000 people in Russia so far. There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91°F) Wednesday though Sunday--still 20°F above normal, but better than the 27°F above normal so far this month.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 94 and 93
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks
3) Status of La Niña

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3488 - 3438

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

3488. tkeith
NOUS42 KNHC 101515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 10 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800Z, 12/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 11/1630Z
D. 27.3N 86.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 12/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0600, 0900, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
C. 12/0500Z
D. 28.7N 89.3W
E. 12/0530Z TO 12/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quiz for Gator23. What do the red and blue lines do?

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3486. Gearsts
Quoting IKE:


I've never seen 2 systems die within 3 weeks in the GOM.

Goes to show the "very high SST's" need other factors to work.
Everytime a system this year seem to have the best environment to develop a TUTT upper level low forms to kill it.Thats the thing out of all the positive for develoment!this negative is very bad.But This year what happen to the only system that have 1 behind helping and ventilating! IT BLOW UP to be in the records for strength on june with a pressure of a major hurracane:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3477. HurricaneKyle 8:32 AM EDT on August 11, 2010

I agree; it's only August 11th; these recent systems are just "teasers".......The first Act.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricaneExpert:
I don't even post that much on here. Don't have time to do it. I just found an interesting link about this year. Here is the link what Dr. Klotzbach said...

Link


Very interesting article, and something all the bustcasters should read.

Salient point: of the 19 La Niña years since 1950, the average date of 2nd hurricane formation has been August 21, and five of those years with very high ACE values--that is, of 170 or greater, where the average over the span is 96--didn't see their second hurricane until August 20th (and two of those not until September). The 2nd storm in 1961 didn't form until September 3rd, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. As Klotzbach goes on to say, "...from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3483. GetReal
The only hope for this system in the GOM is for a new LLC to form near the heavier concentrated convection to the east... Right near the area StormW just pointed out...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
According what Incident Command put out on the radio yesterday...two day set back.
Better 2 days than mess up relief well and back to square 1 -2.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gator23 you are wrong and Jeff is right. It's very simple, go to the WU home page and click on computer models and you'll see more than one that shows TD5 coming ashore in Eastern LA/Western MS and then doing a loop and going back towards or into the GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
And once again we see a pathetic little system in the GOM followed by many other pathetic little systems around the Atlantic on a season everyone said would be like Katrina and was already using to promote their global warming stuff. My question is. Are we witnessing some sort of beneficial effect of Global Warming? Some sort of inhibitor caused by it that we are all missing? Is the increased number of ULLs hindering development of major tropical systems a product of such GW if there's any? The questions are out there now for you the experts to brainstorm on them.


refer to the post directly above your post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And once again we see a pathetic little system in the GOM followed by many other pathetic little systems around the Atlantic on a season everyone said would be like Katrina and was already using to promote their global warming stuff. My question is. Are we witnessing some sort of beneficial effect of Global Warming? Some sort of inhibitor caused by it that we are all missing? Is the increased number of ULLs hindering development of major tropical systems a product of such GW if there's any? The questions are out there now for you the experts to brainstorm on them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
alright, i'm going to set the record straight on what I think this season is going to do, as there will be a lot of naysaying if TD5 doesn't become Danielle. Look at the MJO, notice how it always come back to our basin. Name a season in the last 5 years that has done that? One I can think of. Know why MJO keeps on coming back to our basin? Heat is bundled up there, and naturally tropical cyclones form to disperse the heat northward, as they are usually the A/C of the Atlantic. There is only two ways that heat is going to get dispersed is A) 20+ very weak tropical storms or B) 15 named systems, with a whole bunch of CV major hurricanes. Things are setting up right now for the first big one, and I think by the end of this month we will have a CV hurricane. I mean look at the dust! Look at what 93L did to it!


Everything's setting up for the first big one, and it will happen. StormW, Levi are your thoughts similar?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3476. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Good morning IKE!


Morning.

Beautiful morning in the Florida panhandle....78.3 outside.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3475. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Godd morning tkeith. Also Ike glad to see you survived the inquisition.


Thanks.

Doesn't look very good on visible...broad low pressure...too broad....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3474. GetReal
Well after observing the first few available visible satellite pics, I find myself joining with the downcasters and Ike (LOL)... TD #5 will be lucky to become a minimal TS before landfall... This system, like most this season, is terminally ill...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3473. NASA101
STORMW:

Good analysis this morning - definitely getting a little "excited" about those two waves over Africa...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think what it shows happening is the storm curving back around towards the gulf, hooking up with the ULL and creating a new system in the Northern GOM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyway, will leave y'all with this.



Four hour conference call followed by mad rush to appts. so had better get it together now! Have a great day everyone. I hope TD5 is nothing more than a cool shower.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3468. NASA101
Quoting tropicfreak:


I am expecting organization of this wave, almost certain that 95L will be activated sometime today, and NHC up its chances.


Hmmm, I was indeed excited about this wave (pre-95L) but not so much today; not sure if it'll amount to much to be honest!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great and informative blog Storm!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3466. FLDART1
Looks like maybe in the last hour or so a little spark of life with TD5, It truly is amazing to watch the life cycle of these systems. With all of our technology,and science, we are only able to make an educated guess as to what one of these systems may or may not do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
that makes two of us. mornin NRT


Godd morning tkeith. Also Ike glad to see you survived the inquisition.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3464. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
According what Incident Command put out on the radio yesterday...two day set back.


I'm just glad they are nearing the end and the oil is no longer gushing out. They'll get back at it soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Conditions don't look too bad for the wave south of 20N between 51 and 55W.



. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND DEVELOPMENT... IF ANY... SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


I am expecting organization of this wave, almost certain that 95L will be activated sometime today, and NHC up its chances.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3460. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


I agree they did the right thing.
According what Incident Command put out on the radio yesterday...two day set back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3459. IKE
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


I'd rather see them run than screw something up and hurt/kill a bunch more people. If they'd been as careful before as after we wouldn't have this mess.


I agree they did the right thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


Good Morning! Looks like TD 5 may have some tricks up his sleeve later this week.

Morning jeff9641, yes should be interesting after the weekend. I have 4.41 inches in the guage so far this month. I'll take it. First time since 2005 that i have over 40 inches so far this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


I agree IKE something is missing so far this year. I really tought TD 5 would be much more organized this morning and it isn't at all.

As I said yesterday if you look at microwave the surface low is very very broad and not wrapped around itself well. Disorganized. It does not have the time to get itself together with too much impact from the ULL and dry air. The upper level pattern made it look far more impressive yesterday than what it truely was. It is doing exactly what I thought and will slowly creep to a TS.

Biggest concerns are slow moving system flooding a lot of areas. With ground so dry right now water will run-off oposed to soaking into the soil.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Conditions don't look too bad for the wave south of 20N between 51 and 55W.



. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND DEVELOPMENT... IF ANY... SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfmom:
Not looking too friendsly for a chica w/a surfboard - don't mind surfing in rain -- but NOT BOOMERS/lightening (too much sin in my closet - LOL)
Don't want to know about sin-filled closets. Poor Levi stirred up enough trouble with his innocence. Boy is going to get a real education in Fairbanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


It is but not near the center.


It's right near the center if not over it, check the 850mb vorticity charts.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since this storm crossed Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, 94L had been headed toward Havana,Cuba then Freeport,Texas, turned into TropicalDepressionFive while heading toward IntracoastalCity,Louisiana, and headed toward PortArthur,Texas then Destin,Florida...
After TD5 had headed toward Galveston,Texas then Waveland,Mississippi...
- - - -Time and Date - - - - - Location
07:30pmEDT 10Aug10 - 26.0N 84.1W
- - -11pmEDT 10Aug10 - 26.2N84.2W
- - -02amEDT 11Aug10 - 26.3N84.5W
- - -05amEDT 11Aug10 - 26.8N85.1W
- - -07amCDT 11Aug10 - 27.1N85.8W
...TD5 has once again been heading toward IntracoastalCity,Louisiana
Copy&paste 26.0N84.1W-26.2N84.2W, 26.2N84.2W-26.3N84.5W, 26.3N84.5W-26.8N85.1W, 26.8N85.1W-27.1N85.8W, 29.3n94.8w, 30.3n89.5w, 27.1N85.8W-29.6n92.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't even post that much on here. Don't have time to do it. I just found an interesting link about this year. Here is the link what Dr. Klotzbach said...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3450. tkeith
Quoting Jeff9641:


Every post you put up I find usefull so don't listen to some on here.
that makes two of us. mornin NRT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SeaMule:
everyone is talking about this thing dying. Not happening. Now that the transition to a tropical system has taken place, and the ULL is swinging out of the way, it will ramp up. Look for a increase in wind speed and convection. 90 mph storm is definitely a possibility.


I think 90 mph is a bit of a stretch, though it could be a strong ts (65-70 mph) by landfall, and MAYBE we can squeak out a brief weak cat 1 hurricane but don't count too much on that happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3448. surfmom
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


I'd rather see them run than screw something up and hurt/kill a bunch more people. If they'd been as careful before as after we wouldn't have this mess.


Thank-you Shen for your good point - it's been hell being a Gulf coastie this summer
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
CATLoop

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N51W TO 07N55W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 47W-56W WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 48W-55W. WHILE THE WAVE LACKS ANY DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 51W-57W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfmom:
Not looking too friendsly for a chica w/a surfboard - don't mind surfing in rain -- but NOT BOOMERS/lightening (too much sin in my closet - LOL)


well, at least with this batch you may be lucky..no boomers. Not sure about laterr in the day though...might want to get out sooner rather than later!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NASA101:


Don't bother yourself with HWRF model - it's pretty useless in these situation... 94L as I predicted hasn't amounted to much! Atlantic is pretty quiet for now!!


I look at many different models and will post what I want to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


I agree IKE something is missing so far this year. I really tought TD 5 would be much more organized this morning and it isn't at all.


Thunderstorm actvity is currently on the increase.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3441. surfmom
Quoting miamiamiga:
Well, I emptied the pool a bit too much yesterday, but now it seems that was a good thing. Venice, FL (Coastal Sarasota County) is getting pounded with rain right now from TD5 and it looks like this may go on all day according to the radar. I think we are going to have some flooding around here!
Not looking too friendly for a chica w/a surfboard - don't mind surfing in rain -- but NOT BOOMERS/lightening (too much sin in my closet - LOL)
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
3440. tkeith
Quoting hurricanehanna:

ewe...not what I wanted to see this morning....Hey tkeith? Is she trying to get better organized?
I thought so Hanna, cant really see why it wouldn't. But it's not too impressive at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3438. SeaMule
everyone is talking about this thing dying. Not happening. Now that the transition to a tropical system has taken place, and the ULL is swinging out of the way, it will ramp up. Look for a increase in wind speed and convection. 90 mph storm is definitely a possibility.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3488 - 3438

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
42 °F
Light Rain