Pakistan's Katrina; 94L could develop in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 10, 2010

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The monsoon season of 2010 continues to generate havoc in Asia, as lingering rains from the latest monsoon low continue to affect hard-hit Pakistan, China, and India. At least 702 are now reported dead and 1,042 are missing in China's Gansu province, due to torrential monsoon rains that triggered a deadly landslide and extreme flooding on Sunday. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, with 500 people missing. Monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. But no country has suffered more than Pakistan, where monsoon floods have destroyed huge portions of the nation's infrastructure and killed at least 1600 people. The number of people affected or needing assistance has been estimated to be as high as 13 million people--8% of the nation's population. The disaster is the worst natural disaster in Pakistan's history, and is rightfully being called "Pakistan's Katrina."


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Monsoons: a primer
In summer, the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This occurs because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. However, monsoons have their dark side as well--hundreds of people in India and surrounding nations die in an average year in floods and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Each summer, approximately 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in the El Niño-weakened monsoon season of 2009. This year's first monsoon depression formed on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela. A second monsoon depression arrived in Pakistan on August 3, and has brought additional heavy rains.

Are the this year's monsoon floods due to global warming?
No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades.

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China.

Donations urgently needed
The massive humanitarian crisis in Pakistan requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of 94L from the Key West radar.

94L
A 1010 mb low pressure system (94L) near the Florida Keys is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Florida and the adjacent waters, and could become a tropical or subtropical depression as early as Wednesday. Current Key West radar shows the rotation of the storm, but the thunderstorm activity has not yet organized into low-level spiral bands. A few areas in the Keys and extreme South Florida have seen 1 - 2 inches of rain thus far from 94L. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures are very warm, 30 - 31°C. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that 94L is forming beneath an upper-level low with plenty of dry air, and there is a substantial flow of dry, continental air wrapping into 94L. This dry air is retarding the development of 94L, and may force the storm to organize into a subtropical storm instead of a tropical storm. A subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. There is no such thing as a subtropical hurricane. If a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane force winds, than it must have become fully tropical. It usually takes at least two days for a subtropical storm to make the transition to a tropical storm.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The storm's main problem will be dry air, and I don't expect 94L to undergo rapid development. Most of the models bring 94L ashore over Louisiana by Thursday, though the GFDL model predicts 94L could stall off the coast and not make landfall until Friday. If 94L does make landfall Thursday, it is unlikely to be a hurricane, due to all the dry air aloft in the Gulf. However, the GFDL model is predicting that the 1-day delay in landfall to Friday will allow 94L enough time to grow fully tropical and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. I think this solution is unlikely. Storms that get their start underneath a cold, dry, upper-level low very rarely attain hurricane strength in three days. A 40 - 50 mph tropical or subtropical storm at landfall Thursday or Friday is a much more reasonable forecast.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L and 94L.

Moscow hits 99°F again today
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 37°C (99°F) today, the 28th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 10 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperature have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first ten days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. Smog and smoke from wildfires continued to blanket the city today, with the Russian Meteorological Agency reporting that pollution due to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and hydrocarbons exceeding the safe limit by factors of 1.2 - 2.2. Air pollution levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level on Saturday. As I reported in yesterday's post, the heat wave has likely killed at least 15,000 people in Russia so far. There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91°F) Wednesday though Sunday--still 20°F above normal, but better than the 27°F above normal so far this month.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 94 and 93
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks
3) Status of La Niña

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
This buoy is about 50 miles SSW of TD5....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.0 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 93.9 °F


Surf's up! lol
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
3286. tkeith
3285. IKE 5:19 AM CDT on August 11, 2010
This buoy is about 50 miles SSW of TD5....

Ike, you got your flack jacket on yet?
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3285. IKE
This buoy is about 50 miles SSW of TD5....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.0 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 93.9 °F
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Quoting tkeith:
3270. traumaboyy

holdin on to sumthin on Rue Bourbon is a tradition.


I can not wait!!

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3283. tkeith
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Wonder if people finally jump off the TD05 turing into hurricane bandwagon? Doesnt look too good and wont be worse than a weak TS. And to think I thought there was an outside shot for a half day or a day off tomorrow. Oh well.
I doubt it Boobs, but who knows Ike may go from "zero" to "hero" in here today...lol
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3282. tkeith
Quoting aquak9:
well ya'll I gotta admit, I was real happy to see this mornings views. swirlies in the gulf do tend to make one a little nervous.
So true...I hope StormW dont come back and change my jovial mood...
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Wonder if people finally jump off the TD05 turing into hurricane bandwagon? Doesnt look too good and wont be worse than a weak TS. And to think I thought there was an outside shot for a half day or a day off tomorrow. Oh well.
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3280. tkeith
3270. traumaboyy

holdin on to sumthin on Rue Bourbon is a tradition.
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Quoting IKE:
TD5 puttin on some makeup....



Make up? Small bouts of hysterics?

Can only be insanity.
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3278. aquak9
well ya'll I gotta admit, I was real happy to see this mornings views. swirlies in the gulf do tend to make one a little nervous.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Will be there....maybe holding on to something....but I seem to always have to hold on to the sign in the wind....but I usually have to hold on to something anyways on Bourbon!


I already sound like I have been drinkin...lol
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3276. tkeith
3268. aquak9 5:08

Looks like Recoon has sniffed out the COC there Aqua...or a dead fish. Dont he know there's dispersants out there!
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Morning, Storm.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all! I'll be back after finishing analysis.


Morning Chief!!
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Ah, gotcha.

Cute.
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3272. IKE
TD5 puttin on some makeup....

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Quoting aquak9:
so the Cane dont blow nuthin away :)

sarcasm flag...on? :)

hi wart. Don't know where ya are, but I'll lift a coffee cup to ya.


I'm in Hernando County, Fl. North of Tampa about an hour... or as I like to call it, Peckerwoodville. ;-)
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
Quoting tkeith:
Hey Trauma...if this does ramp up alittle, N'awlins throws a helluva Hurricane party.

I'll look for ya by the sign :)


Will be there....maybe holding on to something....but I seem to always have to hold on to the sign in the wind....but I usually have to hold on to something anyways on Bourbon!
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3268. aquak9
poof!
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3267. tkeith
Quoting aquak9:
so the Cane dont blow nuthin away :)

sarcasm flag...on? :)

hi wart. Don't know where ya are, but I'll lift a coffee cup to ya.


:)
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3266. IKE
Quoting traumaboyy:


Yes sir...love that chitau...I can't spell it...that winery...lol


LOL....Chautauqua Vineyard & Winery.

I'm about 9 miles north of there. Honk when you pass through or at least wave.

I've got 76.3 at my location. Sixty percent chance of rain today thanks to TD5.
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Oooo! Laissez les bons temps rouler!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
Quoting aquak9:
just none of those energy drinks, trauma...i drank half of one once, and shook all over for like an hour.

Yeah I got banned for posting Recoon. So now I'll post it, but then I gotta take it back down. It's in Skye's blog where it's safe.


LOL....You got it....I am just happy I may be enjoying the weekend more than I had expected over in NOLA....a bit early I know but I am hopeful
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3263. aquak9
so the Cane dont blow nuthin away :)

sarcasm flag...on? :)

hi wart. Don't know where ya are, but I'll lift a coffee cup to ya.
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3262. tkeith
Hey Trauma...if this does ramp up alittle, N'awlins throws a helluva Hurricane party.

I'll look for ya by the sign :)
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Quoting aquak9:
just none of those energy drinks, trauma...i drank half of one once, and shook all over for like an hour.

Yeah I got banned for posting Recoon. So now I'll post it, but then I gotta take it back down. It's in Skye's blog where it's safe.


I don't know what one is. 'Separated by a common language', maybe...

A raccoon? A maine coon?

A name?
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I hear ya tkeith, early bird get the girder.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting IKE:


Stopping at the winery out by I10?


Yes sir...love that chitau...I can't spell it...that winery...lol
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3258. tkeith
Quoting msgambler:
Morning tkeith, what are you doing here today? That bridge can't build itself ya know.
I'll be headed that way in a bit. Gotta go lash down barges, secure cranes and pick up anything not tied down so the Cane dont blow nuthin away :)
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3257. IKE
Quoting traumaboyy:
Gonna grab a case of wine in the morning over your way Ike passing through, hope it ends up east of NOLA, would certainly like to enjoy the weekend more, maybe cool things off.


Stopping at the winery out by I10?
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Well, that's harsh, aqua. Cute little fella. lol I hear you on the energy drinks. I'll stick to my Community Coffee, thank you very much. lol
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
morning Tkeith!
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Morning tkeith, what are you doing here today? That bridge can't build itself ya know.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
3253. aquak9
just none of those energy drinks, trauma...i drank half of one once, and shook all over for like an hour.

Yeah I got banned for posting Recoon. So now I'll post it, but then I gotta take it back down. It's in Skye's blog where it's safe.
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3252. tkeith
I love the mornin crew...no straight jackets required...
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Good morning maam...wine on the way
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Quoting aquak9:
g'morning trauma, don't think we've met. Please call me Aqua.

Grab a bottle of wine for me too, a blood-dark caberbet or merlot....aww heck strawberry hills or tickle pink will be fine, too! :)
Well, seeing we are sending our liquor request in, ummm, wiat my list is loonnnnggggg.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Morning Aqua. Recoon..?

Recon's still out there... bobbing up and down in altitude for something to do from the looks of things.
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Quoting aquak9:
Hi gambler! I am behaving. I posted Recoon in here last night, and took it down after five minutes. Whew! (wipes forehead)

So there's still TS warnings for that localized sneeze out there?


I liked your 'Coon recon. lol They really gave you a hard time about that?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
3247. tkeith
Dam Ike, you've gone and killed another perfectly good storm...HOW COULD YOU!!

LMAO :)
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3246. aquak9
g'morning trauma, don't think we've met. Please call me Aqua.

Grab a bottle of wine for me too, a blood-dark caberbet or merlot....aww heck strawberry hills or tickle pink will be fine, too! :)
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Morning all. *yawn* INMC. Hey Ike.

So what's the story? Is the dry air gonna eat it up or is it gonna stall out and drop buckets of rain all over LA?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
3244. aquak9
Hi gambler! I am behaving. I posted Recoon in here last night, and took it down after five minutes. Whew! (wipes forehead)

So there's still TS warnings for that localized sneeze out there?
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Good morning Aquk9!
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behave young lady. Ohhh, and good morning
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
3241. aquak9
Whooo-hooo! A blog fulla handsome men!!

G'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide. I dreamed there was a swirly in the gulf. Musta been a dream, right?

Or maybe, just maybe, Reccon has some kinda magical powers?
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Mets, as of last night, couldn't get off th 40% chance of rain for thur and Fri. Not much mention of the storm other then the ticker on the bottom of the screen for the warnings. Havn't had enough coffee yet this morning to deal with um' to figure out what they think.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Dr. Masters' Hurricane Haven Podcast 8/10

Interesting analysis and forecasts for the current Hurricane Season.
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Gonna grab a case of wine in the morning over your way Ike passing through, hope it ends up east of NOLA, would certainly like to enjoy the weekend more, maybe cool things off.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.