The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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1227. NoNamePub
11:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting TcuFrogs:
Long time lurker but very few post. Quick question about the Probability Circles issued. Why is a yellow circle issued if there is only a 0% - 10% of development? I appreciate those that provide insightful information.


YES - 0-10% Chance - Beware of Orange - Red....big time !

Lucky to have paterson still he's a good coach
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1226. MiamiHurricanes09
11:51 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
I feel ya' IKE, some nasty thunderstorms developed over the Everglades earlier today and are now moving eastward (towards me)...as they weaken.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1225. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Blog Update!

Tropical Weather Analysis - August 19 2010 - Tropical Update!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
1224. homelesswanderer
11:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A profession meteorologist said this on Storm2k and I quote:

"Given the current and projected -NAO, CV storms are less likely to be a U.S. threat. It's the closer-in development in the Caribbean and SW Atlantic that would be the threat to the U.S. Anything forming by the CV islands will have a hard time making it west to the U.S."

I find this to be incorrect...any opinions anyone?


Lol. I don't even have to look. I know who you mean. Been arguing with him for six months about that.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1223. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Baha



I would say yes.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
1222. BahaHurican
11:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting washingtonian115:
so far if you've noticed Haiti has not been directly affected with a tropical entity so far.But we still got september and october to go trough.And november is also notorious for producing strong storms in a favorable pattern.
I've really been hoping against hope they don't get hit by anything at all this season. After last year's train of storms, followed by this January's quake, the pple of Haiti really need a break.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
1220. BahaHurican
11:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Disturbance Summary
20:30 PM UTC August 19 2010
=================================

An area of convection (94W) located at 18.8N 123.8E or 300 NM north northeast of Manila, Philippines. Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates convection is consolidating over a loosely defined low level circulation center with some indications that upper level outflow is starting to become enhanced into a tropical upper tropospheric trough to the north. A 1725z AMSR-E microwave pass shows banding forming in the mid to upper levels of the system. The lower level, as depicted by the 36ghz image, still shows a relatively weak surface circulation center.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.

=============
70 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Typhoon 2000 websire
Someone earlier today was drawing our attention to a storm making landfall in China on the 12z GFS.... could this be it?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
1219. TcuFrogs
11:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Long time lurker but very few post. Quick question about the Probability Circles issued. Why is a yellow circle issued if there is only a 0% - 10% of development? I appreciate those that provide insightful information.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
1218. PELLSPROG
11:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
This is just fine by me LOL :
North Atlantic (0)
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
1216. WeekiWacheeWoman
11:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Oh..I promise, I won't chuckle. And it's not a stupid question...the ridging is the white circles with the arrows over the ocean.


Okay thank you StormW. I have a fair amount of common sense and can usually sort things out on my own, but weather has SO many terms and variables. For the first two years I suffered quietly. I decided this year to ask for clarification for terms and conditions that I do not understand. Now, back to quietly lurking and learning.
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
1215. washingtonian115
11:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
so far if you've noticed Haiti has not been directly affected with a tropical entity so far.But we still got september and october to go trough.And november is also notorious for producing strong storms in a favorable pattern.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
1214. IKE
11:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting StormSurgeon:

\
Been raining in Mobile most of the afternoon. Stopped now though. What's up?


Raining good here now. 79.5 outside.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1213. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Disturbance Summary
20:30 PM UTC August 19 2010
=================================

An area of convection (94W) located at 18.8N 123.8E or 300 NM north northeast of Manila, Philippines. Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates convection is consolidating over a loosely defined low level circulation center with some indications that upper level outflow is starting to become enhanced into a tropical upper tropospheric trough to the north. A 1725z AMSR-E microwave pass shows banding forming in the mid to upper levels of the system. The lower level, as depicted by the 36ghz image, still shows a relatively weak surface circulation center.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.

=============
70 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Typhoon 2000 website
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1212. Hurricanes101
11:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
20% over in the EPAC now too
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
1211. StormSurgeon
11:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Raining here now.

18Z NOGAPS...

\
Been raining in Mobile most of the afternoon. Stopped now though. What's up?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1210. BahaHurican
11:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Everybody else eating dinner, I guess. I had stirfried shrimp and vegetables, with couscous and some fried chinese dumplings as a starter. Great stuff....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
1209. troy1993
11:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
God would the NHC just issue this as invest 95-L..from the satellite images it is clearly becoming better organized. Im tired of seeing just the GFS and European models..I wanna see some GFDL and HWRF!
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
1207. MiamiHurricanes09
11:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192336
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON FRIDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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1206. earthlydragonfly
11:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid:


Same here. Here is a picture out my back door looking SE by E towards the Caymans. Nice little cell. See the shear at work?


I dont see any shear in that picture... Cool shot of a Meso though...
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1205. heretolearninPR
11:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
While we are all waiting for the next TWO. I was wondering if anyone can remember the crazy storm some years back when Avila was writing the update and said something like "and I am not even going to try to predict what it will do next". I cannot remember the storm or the year or the exact quote.

Thanks in advance for the help.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
1203. IKE
11:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Look out Ike! I think we fixin to get a little rain.


Raining here now.

18Z NOGAPS...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1202. Hurricanes101
11:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
TWO stays the same
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I went to the beach earlier and I swear I've never been in warmer water at the beach in my life. I swear, it was so warm it wasn't even refreshing, it felt like taking a shower. A rough guess of the water temperature would be 92˚F. That Gulf Stream is definitely doing its job.
Uh-Oh.that spells trouble if the upper air pattern is favorable.It brings "K" of 2005 in to memory.I hope we don't get no Wilma's this year as well.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
85 - 87 degrees right now, light winds, all throughout the Bahamas.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
One of the responses I got, which doesn't make much sense.

"a -ve NAO means low pressures in the subtorpics, whilst a ve NAO usually means a stronger subtropical high pressure and low pressure further north...

Really though thats far too oversimplifying it, you can have different types of -/ NAO!"

Yes I know what he wrote is right, but he is contradicting himself since he agrees with the met.
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1197. xcool
'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Puerto Rico Tropical Update
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Would someone please show me a sat. loop of the proposed storm in the east Atlantic?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Hurricanes101:
how is the area in the EPAC not an invest?
How was 92L not at least a depression.Raises some eyebrows now huh?By the by KOTG always informs us about earthquakes first before the media.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
I went to the beach earlier and I swear I've never been in warmer water at the beach in my life. I swear, it was so warm it wasn't even refreshing, it felt like taking a shower. A rough guess of the water temperature would be 92˚F. That Gulf Stream is definitely doing its job.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
That storm in the Southern hemi Dr. Masters posted about it a BEAST


2500 miles storm force plus winds.


44 foot seas a gross underestimation. Probably close to an average of 60 feet and with large sets in the 80 foot ranged mixed in.

It happened in the perfect storm and that storm was weaker and had less fetch and more less impact from land.


Some Western Australia big wave breaks are going to be insanely huge (50 foot on the face plus)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


At least Mobile is out of the woods....
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1186. xcool


500MB Heights/Absolute Vorticity
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well the area does look good on satalite,and infared as well.
There has been something hanging around in that area for much of the summer, I think. TC formation potential maps have had anywhere from purple to blue there practically all season. Plus the water right against the coast there has been normally or even abnormally warm. However, I think the much cooler than normal air/water to the S due to the La Nina is inhibiting any genuine formation potential.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
1184. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
1182. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
Quoting Hurricanes101:


A negative NAO is the exact opposite, amazes me that someone who is a professional would say that


Exactly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting BahaHurican:
Somebody was asking about the EPac area?



SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM
32N114W TO 23N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN
107W AND 111W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 19N107W TO 15N100W TO 12N92W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN 102W AND 108W...AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRIMARY SURFACE
FEATURES AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


I do know the formation potential chart from earlier today was hyping that area...

Well the area does look good on satalite,and infared as well.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
Quoting Hurricanes101:


from what I have seen there is no set time for them to declare a new invest
Yup. I assume that they want to see some persistence (as for me, I've seen plenty of persistence) before tagging it an invest that way it just doesn't go "poof". I would assume that they will raise the chances to orange (30%) at 8PM, looks to be organizing nicely to me.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StormW:


Guess the same way the one off the Cape Verde Islands isn't. Maybe they are waiting for an eye to develop.


Maybe the NHC should lable it as a "C", for the folks that are "curious" about it.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Hurricanes101:


from what I have seen there is no set time for them to declare a new invest
But at this point they might as well wait for the TWO...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.