The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.
Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).
Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.
Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.
Jeff Masters
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in other news, Aussies getting massive swell!
We had great lightning before dark here in Winter Garden.... Unfortunatly right after the sun went down the lightning went north and south of me.. I got a few shots but nothing I would post.. But I still need to review the images...
LOVE IT! Thanks for the good morning ROFLMAO!!!
And will continue to do so based on the steering maps
Dont bring politics into this a very bad call...
Click image for full-size
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storm by the computer models ..i am right again. 100% fish storm..look at the computer models
Can u please leave your POLITICAL OPINION off the blog!!
Aug 20, 2010 6:05 AM
We continue to monitor a large area of disturbed weather, extending from the west coast of Africa and south of the Cape Verde Islands. While a low-level circulation has not developed, clouds associated with this system are turning counter-clockwise suggesting at least some midlevel circulation. The upper-level winds, lower-level wind shear and the overall atmosphere surrounding and ahead of this area of disturbed weather are favorable for further organization and we continue to believe there is a good chance this feature will gradually become a tropical system within the next couple of days and could become the next tropical depression in the Atlantic Basin by the end of this weekend, as computer modeling suggests that formation will start to take place over the next 24-36 hours around 12 north, 30 west. A large area of high pressure in the Atlantic has been slowly working eastward during the past couple of days and this trend should continue. This suggests this system will move westward for a few days, then gradually turn more northwestward next week. The future path of this system remains highly uncertain until a low-level feature forms.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave near 86 west remains disorganized as it moves west at about 6-8 degrees longitude per day. The system continues to encounter some shear and no low-level feature has formed yet. So development of this system looks unlikely at this time as it approaches Central America. The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney
I tend to agree even ECMWF believes so: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ecmwf/fcst/archive/10081800/62.html
notice the bend back to the left.
Models are NOT gospel.
Yes but Andrew was a very weak Tropical Storm until it began to rapidly intensify around 66 degrees west.
Doubt it......
As the well known Max Mayfield says.... "Don't look at models beyond 2 - 3 days as anything can happen after that"
South Floridians and forcasters learned this with Andrew.....
Hope you're right, but you well know that it's WAY too early to tell where anything is going with 100% accuracy.
If she is a politician, I am a meteorologist. Both would be bad to relay on. But you are right bad call.
Trust me, as soon as models start shifting left Jason will b the first 2 say no fish storm then say he was right all along.
U betcha
Morn' ms
That map kind of depicts what may happen.
Which might happen here, by the looks of satelite presentation 95L is quite large & may take some time to consolidate.
That and once everyone realizes it... All politicians are a BAD call... LOL
I dont bring any politics into this blog but I do try to add some humor. #2165 - Jason should know it wasnt anything done with bad intentions. But I'll leave the nonsense out this morning and I do offer my apologies if anyone was offended.
The score is 8-5 in favor of the EPAC
He once dissipated a hurricane... just by breathing on it...
It is not just the GFS. The first model runs from the BAMMs suite, NGPS all turn it way north before 55W.
Western high moves west...eastern high stays in place...weakness between the 2. If this spins up like the models are forecasting, it's catfish time.
Maybe the models will change.
Finally done with my two weeks of days rotation. Looking forward to being back on nights next week. Looks like we will have some storms over the next week to track and monitor. Hope they do not become monsters in the GOM, or for that matter anywhere that can cause havoc for anyone
Stay Thirsty my friends
Morning Gambler!!!
So we have 95L? I have a question though for the blog..accuweather was saying last night that ex-td05 could redevelop off the the NC carolina coast, if that does happen, wouldnt that play a part in 95L path..can a storm influence another storm steering? Both the GFS and Euro model were picking up the NC storm in the last runs. Would they be too far away from each other to feel the effects of each other..thats if they develop..TIA
Well, gosh darn it also, you didn't offend me...LOL Don't worry about it, most on here are not that sensitive.
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