The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.
Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).
Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.
Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Those coastal impacts have been followed by the remains recurving, at least in what I recall seeing.
i would like to see a invest tagged so we can know what the track and intensity models think.
Not sure what it implies...thought it could imply that the cloudless sky and still-high sun are going to drive the 26.C thermocline deeper and further raise the TCHP...helping grow bigger storms if/when they arrive, and/or prolonging the season.
The impressive Vort Max and Broad low you mentioned should force them into mentioning it.
When the tropics start revving up "next week?"
Third movie ref. in a row. But I think you earned a HARUMPH! for that one. ;)
Great, I'll run some models so we know what to expect...
key words (can be) and (consistency).
intresting subject, Weather forcasting came along way over the years and the forcasters still dont completely understand all of the dynamics of when these storms or going to pop up but they are allways trying to look out
for our wellbeing by informing us of impending dangers from tropical weather isnt that what this is really about anyway?
This is your first post? I recall seeing your avatar (rather unique one) in some other blogs. Maybe someone else has the same avatar...
This is a pretty interesting "phantom" though. What's catching my eye is that whatever forms is likely to get to 50W without any recurve; that part seems consistent. This means that regardless of actual run finale, the potential for a landfall remains quite high. The other thing is forecasts stay uniform on potential for high intensity. Wherever it ends up, it looks like we're going to have a "pretty one"....
looks almost closed, but not quite. still a convergence zone on the north side of the axis.
I don't mind humor; in fact, I love it. And I can't say I particularly care to read slab-like comments posted by folks who are clearly lacking a discernible personality. However, it's difficult sometimes to separate the wheat from the chaff here, as there's so much of the latter and not enough of the former. Ask anyonewho's tried to write comedy for a living; it's actually difficult to do at a sustained rate...as evidenced by many of the posts here. Of course, humor is subjective, as what I find funny you may not, and vice versa. And that's fine. But there are many posts on here that are not funny to anyone but the person who posted--and if you don't agree with that, well, then, your definition of chaff and mine differ a bit, don't you think? ;-)
Exactly!
+1
are you sure it creates a ULL? I would think that it creates a more stacked low-pressure system.
Hi Homeless....
and you were there
or were you? *raises eyebrow*
I'm buying the out to sea senario (if the system develops).
Should reflect it out to sea. Could be a very similar path to Hurricane Bill of last year.
Hey Tex. :)
Yeah, I dont care for those much either... I do like the info regarding the Heat wave in Moscow and the extra tropical storm (which are the theme of todays blog) yet noone is talking about them just because it is hurricane season.
It may create a cold core funnel.
312. reedzone 5:04 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
Out till tonight, not staying home on my day off lol... Have fun, be good and I do expect either 95L or a yellow circle for the TWO when I get back. IKE, save me some crow will ya, just in case I am wrong?
I am going to get organized, 'next week'.
Funny how 'next week' is always a week away....
heheheh
And yes, recurvature is a scientific term.... guess the guys who made it up studied a bit more math than we do these days.
You don't mock "the debate"; you only mock the side you don't support.... be real man....
Seems to me there's a lot of pple who don't understand that if nobody talks about the models.... well, what is there to talk about? If u are ill-advised enough to panic on the basis of a model run on a storm that hasn't formed yet, well... u are ill-advised. I don't see the harm in responsible people discussing responsibly, which a lot of us certainly can handle. The others.... well, I wish them the best on their journey...
very well said +1
ex L5 still spinning. like the path it seems to be taking to!
HARUMPH! Sorry. kankunkid started it. Seriously, I agree. :)
Wow..thats crazy! Note the TS is actually moving in a bad direction towards the Caribbean..lol
Trendy is 'now',
Nostalgia is coming,
And we will be there.
Pretty dismal prospect, if you ask me...
Check the Local CONUS or take a walk outside.
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